a*****a
发帖数: 19262 | 1 刚搬到这city，暂时没有太多钱，所以买townhouse，计划７年左右可能会换房子。大
家说，这种情况是ARM 7/1还是 30-yr fix rate哪个更适合我们呢?为什么大家基本都
是选择３０－yr fix rate呢>? | d**l
发帖数: 1546 | 2 5/1 ARM
【在 a*****a 的大作中提到】
: 刚搬到这city，暂时没有太多钱，所以买townhouse，计划７年左右可能会换房子。大
: 家说，这种情况是ARM 7/1还是 30-yr fix rate哪个更适合我们呢?为什么大家基本都
: 是选择３０－yr fix rate呢>?
| t**********j
发帖数: 382 | 3 5/1 ARM, Rate is about 1.5% lower than 30 Yr fixed
7/1 ARM, Rate is about 1.0% lower than 30 Yr fixed
10/1 ARM, Rate is about 0.5% lower than 30 Yr fixed
如果计划７年左右可能会换房子， Take one of these ARMS. | a*****a
发帖数: 19262 | 4 The things most ppl will change the living place within several years(5-10
years), but do they mostly take 30-yr fix rate? | s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 5 take 30-year的都蠢啊。就是给银行忽悠，然后再被忽悠每隔几年refi。除了美国，我
在其他发达国家就没看到过30年fixed，大家不都过得蛮好。
【在 a*****a 的大作中提到】
: The things most ppl will change the living place within several years(5-10
: years), but do they mostly take 30-yr fix rate?
| b*d
发帖数: 9308 | 6 30yrs fix省事，不用担心以后的利率是涨还是跌。
【在 a*****a 的大作中提到】
: 刚搬到这city，暂时没有太多钱，所以买townhouse，计划７年左右可能会换房子。大
: 家说，这种情况是ARM 7/1还是 30-yr fix rate哪个更适合我们呢?为什么大家基本都
: 是选择３０－yr fix rate呢>?
| t**s
发帖数: 6972 | 7 所谓过几年换房，未必是卖了旧的买新的。也有可能前一套出租。
没有什么很确切的。你要是过了几年出于什么原因卖不了房子，而利率又涨了呢？选30
年就是给这种情况保险的。 | d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 8 en, 假如说７年以后利率涨到１０％了， 那时候你的房贷就是个套利asset,
把它payoff就亏大了。 宁可到新地方去租房子了， 如果旧房子那里不是太难出租。
30
【在 t**s 的大作中提到】
: 所谓过几年换房，未必是卖了旧的买新的。也有可能前一套出租。
: 没有什么很确切的。你要是过了几年出于什么原因卖不了房子，而利率又涨了呢？选30
: 年就是给这种情况保险的。
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 9 蠢人说梦呢？
３０年是福利好不。 其他国家不愿意承担风险， 金融流通度不够， 不敢做３０年。
美国当年好光景吹泡泡的时候是搞４０年甚至１００年或者只用付息贷款的。 现在都
没得搞了。
到底谁蠢呐？
只看见两年利息down trend就大言不惭了， 现在隔夜已经是0.25 or so. 还能降到哪
去？ 长远看只有升， 没得降了。
【在 s******8 的大作中提到】
: take 30-year的都蠢啊。就是给银行忽悠，然后再被忽悠每隔几年refi。除了美国，我
: 在其他发达国家就没看到过30年fixed，大家不都过得蛮好。
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 10 蠢人也不用脑子想想。
如果３０年不是因为term上比１５年或者arm有利， 凭啥多收0.5%-1%的利差。
年。
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 蠢人说梦呢？
: ３０年是福利好不。 其他国家不愿意承担风险， 金融流通度不够， 不敢做３０年。
: 美国当年好光景吹泡泡的时候是搞４０年甚至１００年或者只用付息贷款的。 现在都
: 没得搞了。
: 到底谁蠢呐？
: 只看见两年利息down trend就大言不惭了， 现在隔夜已经是0.25 or so. 还能降到哪
: 去？ 长远看只有升， 没得降了。
| | | d******n
发帖数: 2712 | 11 其实做ARM或是30年固定都可以。
可以调查一下同类型的房子的租金大概是多少，看看能cover那个mortgage。目前来看
，30年固定的rate还是历史低谷，虽然不是最低点。 | m******e
发帖数: 135 | 12 什么叫套利资产 ？
如果7年后有钱一次付清，就不用付高利率了吧？
对于不会投资的人，也许7arm挺好的
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: en, 假如说７年以后利率涨到１０％了， 那时候你的房贷就是个套利asset,
: 把它payoff就亏大了。 宁可到新地方去租房子了， 如果旧房子那里不是太难出租。
:
: 30
| s****e
发帖数: 282 | 13 It depends on how high the rate will be after 5 years. From my calculation,
if the rate is higher than 6.5% after 5 years, 30 year fixed is better. | d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 14 不可能吧, 以今天的30 fixed 4.75%, 5/1 arm 3.375%算?
,
【在 s****e 的大作中提到】
: It depends on how high the rate will be after 5 years. From my calculation,
: if the rate is higher than 6.5% after 5 years, 30 year fixed is better.
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 15 500K loan.
30 fixed, total payment 939K
5/1 ARM, 3.375% initial, 6.5% 5 yrs later, total payment 1.04M
difference is 98K, or 20% of the initial loan amt.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 不可能吧, 以今天的30 fixed 4.75%, 5/1 arm 3.375%算?
:
: ,
| s****e
发帖数: 282 | 16 You can try to calculate it.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 不可能吧, 以今天的30 fixed 4.75%, 5/1 arm 3.375%算?
:
: ,
| j***k
发帖数: 2719 | 17 most ppl would either pay-off, re-fin, or sell their house between 5-7 years
... few would stay for the duration of the 30 yr loan.
i don't think it is a good idea to pay for the time you would never use.
Agree?
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 500K loan.
: 30 fixed, total payment 939K
: 5/1 ARM, 3.375% initial, 6.5% 5 yrs later, total payment 1.04M
: difference is 98K, or 20% of the initial loan amt.
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 18 我重新算了一下, 以现在的rate, 5年以后, ARM 5.25%总payment ~= fixed 4.75% 30
yrs.
自己估量一下利息变化的可能性吧.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 500K loan.
: 30 fixed, total payment 939K
: 5/1 ARM, 3.375% initial, 6.5% 5 yrs later, total payment 1.04M
: difference is 98K, or 20% of the initial loan amt.
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 19 yes, that's why 5/1 or 7/1 exist.
but what if you will keep the house for more than 15 yrs?
and even so, the 5/1 ARM put unnecessary risk on ur estate, unless u r sure
u will sell/pay off ur loan after 5-7 yrs.
years
【在 j***k 的大作中提到】
: most ppl would either pay-off, re-fin, or sell their house between 5-7 years
: ... few would stay for the duration of the 30 yr loan.
: i don't think it is a good idea to pay for the time you would never use.
: Agree?
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 20 and another reason is leverage, while nowaday the market are in recession
mode. but what if it's on growth mode?
to hold loan for 30 yrs is not the only reason to take 30 yrs fixed loan.
years
【在 j***k 的大作中提到】
: most ppl would either pay-off, re-fin, or sell their house between 5-7 years
: ... few would stay for the duration of the 30 yr loan.
: i don't think it is a good idea to pay for the time you would never use.
: Agree?
| | | d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 21 想想看, 你是一个08年买房的, minimum downpay, 30 yrs fixed.
u put ur extra money to max ur retiring account then buy a certain
extent equity asset, what would be ur total asset value now?
or u bot the house 06, full cash with 30% underwater u have no way to do or
10% down pay u could short sale, foreclose or apply for the numerous
government programs to reduce/cut mortgage payments?
这不是事后诸葛亮, 这是概率. 可以外延到过去30年40年., 优先免税帐户, 适
当股票帐户, 满足需求的房产, 是平均回报最高的理财方式.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: and another reason is leverage, while nowaday the market are in recession
: mode. but what if it's on growth mode?
: to hold loan for 30 yrs is not the only reason to take 30 yrs fixed loan.
:
: years
| R***U
发帖数: 1860 | 22 Considering interest is tax deductable. Refin cost is not.
The different is acutally quite small.
Go for ARM if you short on cash.
Go for 30 if you are settled, not that big of deal. | d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 23 对于房奴区的苦哈哈, 这点small difference折合3-5年的税后收入.
【在 R***U 的大作中提到】
: Considering interest is tax deductable. Refin cost is not.
: The different is acutally quite small.
: Go for ARM if you short on cash.
: Go for 30 if you are settled, not that big of deal.
| s****e
发帖数: 282 | 24 If only living in the house for 10 years, not 30 years, 30 year fixed pays
less interest.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 500K loan.
: 30 fixed, total payment 939K
: 5/1 ARM, 3.375% initial, 6.5% 5 yrs later, total payment 1.04M
: difference is 98K, or 20% of the initial loan amt.
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 25 when u do paper calculation, u surely need assumption.
when u was saying only ARM with 6.5% + would cost more than 30 fixed.
what was ur assumption there? 10 yrs?
of course if u will only live in the house less than 10 yrs and won't keep
it as 2nd house or rental, would u need to compare ARM or 30 fixed?
Those who asked the question obviously are no sure about the future. What
should they do?
do a simple math, ARM 5/1 will only pay off less than 10% of the loan amt in the 1st 5 yrs.
if the future disturbing market boosts the rate even higher? don't forget
the history when Libor or WSJ index 10%+, even ur ARM capped at 8.25% or so, the interest rate is exponential, u will need to pay 1000 or 2000 bucks more each month which could soon put your finance in tourble.
If you own a house value 200K, ok, pay off then. for those whose mortgage
are 500k-800K, what could they do? foreclose?
Is 1.375% rate discount for only 5 yrs worth the risk?
【在 s****e 的大作中提到】
: If only living in the house for 10 years, not 30 years, 30 year fixed pays
: less interest.
| s****e
发帖数: 282 | 26 LZ's post said 7 years. For comparison purpose, I assume living in the house
for 10 years. In this case people still need to choose 5ARM or 30 year
fixed. If after 5 years, the rate increases to 6.5%, 5ARM pays more total
interest than 4.75% 30 year fixed.
in the 1st 5 yrs.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: when u do paper calculation, u surely need assumption.
: when u was saying only ARM with 6.5% + would cost more than 30 fixed.
: what was ur assumption there? 10 yrs?
: of course if u will only live in the house less than 10 yrs and won't keep
: it as 2nd house or rental, would u need to compare ARM or 30 fixed?
: Those who asked the question obviously are no sure about the future. What
: should they do?
: do a simple math, ARM 5/1 will only pay off less than 10% of the loan amt in the 1st 5 yrs.
: if the future disturbing market boosts the rate even higher? don't forget
: the history when Libor or WSJ index 10%+, even ur ARM capped at 8.25% or so, the interest rate is exponential, u will need to pay 1000 or 2000 bucks more each month which could soon put your finance in tourble.
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 27 yes if u r sure u would sell or pay off 7 yrs later.
LZ asked the question why others chose 30 fixed. coz most of ppl can't be so
sure about how many yrs to hold the house.
what if it happens 7 yrs later, 8% rate, low employment, crappy house price.
house
【在 s****e 的大作中提到】
: LZ's post said 7 years. For comparison purpose, I assume living in the house
: for 10 years. In this case people still need to choose 5ARM or 30 year
: fixed. If after 5 years, the rate increases to 6.5%, 5ARM pays more total
: interest than 4.75% 30 year fixed.
:
: in the 1st 5 yrs.
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 28 就和06年吹泡泡的, 9%的利息都肯贷. 因为人盘算的可好呢,
2年以后房子升值15%, 卖掉以后可以赚多少, 即使付高息.
市场不是按你hope走的, 你只能自己去evaluate the risk and gain.
房子这东西, 不是你想卖就能卖出去的, 想卖就很快能卖掉的,更不是想卖什么价就能
卖什么价.
market不好的时候就只能wait.
什么信誓旦旦说7年以后就卖的, 就跟炒股那里看见青蛙们动不动就full margin被call一样.
太naive了.
so
price.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: yes if u r sure u would sell or pay off 7 yrs later.
: LZ asked the question why others chose 30 fixed. coz most of ppl can't be so
: sure about how many yrs to hold the house.
: what if it happens 7 yrs later, 8% rate, low employment, crappy house price.
:
: house
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 29 而且LZ说了要换房. 无论是要relocation or upgrade, 总要考虑成本.
现在利息是史上最低点, 这是个opportunity.
7年以后她要换房的时候, 如果通膨爆发了, 利息8或者10%了, 她还换的起房不?
要upgrade, 再贷款, 那么高的利息贷的起吗? 即使relocate, 房子值不值得卖?
新房子值不值得买还是租房更好?
对于未来的uncertainty, 风险, 机会都是成本.
现在很多贷30年的, 还真未必是在贷款的屋子住多少年的, 3年都未必.
house
【在 s****e 的大作中提到】
: LZ's post said 7 years. For comparison purpose, I assume living in the house
: for 10 years. In this case people still need to choose 5ARM or 30 year
: fixed. If after 5 years, the rate increases to 6.5%, 5ARM pays more total
: interest than 4.75% 30 year fixed.
:
: in the 1st 5 yrs.
| j***k
发帖数: 2719 | 30 Maybe it is just one of the side-effects of aging, while I understand what
you are saying about leveraging and taking the advantage of the cheap rates
now, I would just like to pay off all my mortgages and live debt free once
for all. With that, I advocate the idea of getting a 5/1 or 7/1 ARM and pay
off the debts within the period. One should not consider buying anything one
cannot afford to pay back in 7 years. How many 7 years do you have in your
life? How many years you would like to spend worrying financially?
I was never really good with investment though. Most of my assets are either
with bank CD and real estates. So just take my suggestion with a grain of salt.
It is just the way how I would like to live, debt free.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: and another reason is leverage, while nowaday the market are in recession
: mode. but what if it's on growth mode?
: to hold loan for 30 yrs is not the only reason to take 30 yrs fixed loan.
:
: years
| | | h*******s
发帖数: 3932 | 31 好些人不是说利率到10%房价得再跌么，估计那时候利率30%最好，反正楼主7年也攒了
些钱，就cash买房了（只是他自己的房子估计也跌得不成样了）。
当然，这是很多房黑盘算的“最佳”情况，实际连10%都不太可能，或者说那时候担忧
的不是房子的事情了。
房托的理论是通胀了工资也高了，房价还得涨涨涨，现在50万的房子，到时候就是两块
豆腐的价格。所以30%的利率也是房托的“最佳”情况。
PK吧。
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 而且LZ说了要换房. 无论是要relocation or upgrade, 总要考虑成本.
: 现在利息是史上最低点, 这是个opportunity.
: 7年以后她要换房的时候, 如果通膨爆发了, 利息8或者10%了, 她还换的起房不?
: 要upgrade, 再贷款, 那么高的利息贷的起吗? 即使relocate, 房子值不值得卖?
: 新房子值不值得买还是租房更好?
: 对于未来的uncertainty, 风险, 机会都是成本.
: 现在很多贷30年的, 还真未必是在贷款的屋子住多少年的, 3年都未必.
:
: house
|
|
