a*******e
发帖数: 428 | 1 saw a few times in the last month, a house went on market and got pending
within a week even two days. Of course, those are relatively good deals, but
not that type of once-a-year deals. And almost all houses we sent a bid in
had multiple offers. So, my feeling is the market is turning around. Aglee? |
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
H******7
发帖数: 34403 | |
a*******e
发帖数: 428 | 4 TV news aglees with me.
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: disaglee
|
L******w
发帖数: 5407 | 5 你是agent吗？
but
in
【在 a*******e 的大作中提到】
: saw a few times in the last month, a house went on market and got pending
: within a week even two days. Of course, those are relatively good deals, but
: not that type of once-a-year deals. And almost all houses we sent a bid in
: had multiple offers. So, my feeling is the market is turning around. Aglee?
|
h****3
发帖数: 187 | 6 是的。跟 housing 有关的，像 home builder，建材，甚至银行业，股价在过去一个月
有不俗的涨幅，不过现在说房地产见底，开始复苏还言之过早，过去有多次上升，事后
证明都只是暂时的假象。
but
in
【在 a*******e 的大作中提到】
: saw a few times in the last month, a house went on market and got pending
: within a week even two days. Of course, those are relatively good deals, but
: not that type of once-a-year deals. And almost all houses we sent a bid in
: had multiple offers. So, my feeling is the market is turning around. Aglee?
|
bz
发帖数: 1770 | 7 今天开车的时候广播里还说银行担心大量的forclosure的出现。
pending
Aglee?
【在 h****3 的大作中提到】
: 是的。跟 housing 有关的，像 home builder，建材，甚至银行业，股价在过去一个月
: 有不俗的涨幅，不过现在说房地产见底，开始复苏还言之过早，过去有多次上升，事后
: 证明都只是暂时的假象。
:
: but
: in
|
N**s
发帖数: 1916 | 8 新闻说由于法律原因foreclosure滞后了, 跟着应该有大量的破产房出来。不过我们这
里好的deal越来越少, 感觉连投资者都不够淡定了. |
bz
发帖数: 1770 | 9 据说和06年大量的5y arm也有关系。
【在 N**s 的大作中提到】
: 新闻说由于法律原因foreclosure滞后了, 跟着应该有大量的破产房出来。不过我们这
: 里好的deal越来越少, 感觉连投资者都不够淡定了.
|
k*****a
发帖数: 7389 | 10 那些5y arm reset后，付不起的炒家、deadbeat买家还要赖一年账左右银行才会开始
foreclose程序，然后在法庭再拖上三年。假如几年内无大战、无新泡沫，房价是不可
能再撑下去的，那么真正的大跌可能５年后会开始
【在 bz 的大作中提到】
: 据说和06年大量的5y arm也有关系。
|
|
|
a*******e
发帖数: 428 | 11 This is the most bearish opinion that I have seen so far. Taken current
point as 60% of the peak in 2007, 真正的大跌可能５年后会开始 means 5 years
later it could be 60%*60% = 36%!
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: 那些5y arm reset后，付不起的炒家、deadbeat买家还要赖一年账左右银行才会开始
: foreclose程序，然后在法庭再拖上三年。假如几年内无大战、无新泡沫，房价是不可
: 能再撑下去的，那么真正的大跌可能５年后会开始
|
bz
发帖数: 1770 | 12 forclosure的问题非常恐怖。我盯的那个区在全美都是贵的，和一个地产经纪聊，一片
片的都是forclosure或者pre-forclosure. 不排除好区的居民有这个行业的insider,
都把这个系统玩得透透的。比如有个做mortgage的，他07年就把房子抵押给WM套现，然
后就在里面白住，等forclosure. 码农的血汗钱都被这些个东西给玩死了。
不可
【在 a*******e 的大作中提到】
: This is the most bearish opinion that I have seen so far. Taken current
: point as 60% of the peak in 2007, 真正的大跌可能５年后会开始 means 5 years
: later it could be 60%*60% = 36%!
|
k*****a
发帖数: 7389 | 13 no, i am talking about nyc, which the housing price never dropped these
couple years
listings are still asking 2006 and 2007 peak prices
【在 a*******e 的大作中提到】
: This is the most bearish opinion that I have seen so far. Taken current
: point as 60% of the peak in 2007, 真正的大跌可能５年后会开始 means 5 years
: later it could be 60%*60% = 36%!
|
k*****a
发帖数: 7389 | 14 yes, those are the winners
and the banks don't really care about foreclosures in fact, because those
mortgages are still underlying derivatives which are too much to unwind,
even they already spent 4 years to unload the positions
【在 bz 的大作中提到】
: forclosure的问题非常恐怖。我盯的那个区在全美都是贵的，和一个地产经纪聊，一片
: 片的都是forclosure或者pre-forclosure. 不排除好区的居民有这个行业的insider,
: 都把这个系统玩得透透的。比如有个做mortgage的，他07年就把房子抵押给WM套现，然
: 后就在里面白住，等forclosure. 码农的血汗钱都被这些个东西给玩死了。
:
: 不可
|
w******y
发帖数: 8040 | 15 hehe, current arm rate is really low ah
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: 那些5y arm reset后，付不起的炒家、deadbeat买家还要赖一年账左右银行才会开始
: foreclose程序，然后在法庭再拖上三年。假如几年内无大战、无新泡沫，房价是不可
: 能再撑下去的，那么真正的大跌可能５年后会开始
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 16 foreclosure is not the key - the key is whether the bank who has the
foreclosures rushing to sell them. It seems likely they are not putting them
on the market as fast as they used to.
large private equity firms are moving money into residential real estates -
buying them in bulk and rent. It's a very profitable business, particular
consider that they can really negotiate killer deal buying, renovating and
manage rentals in bulk. I've said that about 6months ago here, but this is a
new wsj article that said a bit more in detail - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577152850637903724.html
one of my cash offer on a short sale was retracted by the bank recently -
the recent sale price has gone up 20% more than the original short sale
price negotiated 5months ago, and couple other offers all gone into multiple
bidding war and lost out - yes, i'm pretty sure the best time to scoot up
deals (in low price rental properties at least) is over. |
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | 17 一定要跟舆论反着走。到处都说别买房的时候，就该下手了。 |
s**********a
发帖数: 3273 | 18 这有点胡扯了。5yr ARM 如果能撑到现在的，都巴不得 reset 呢。现在的利率
比五六年前可低太多了。
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: 那些5y arm reset后，付不起的炒家、deadbeat买家还要赖一年账左右银行才会开始
: foreclose程序，然后在法庭再拖上三年。假如几年内无大战、无新泡沫，房价是不可
: 能再撑下去的，那么真正的大跌可能５年后会开始
|
k*****a
发帖数: 7389 | 19 你才是胡喷
很多炒家根本就是空手套白狼，一直就没还款，也根本就不打算继续每月付款下去的，
现在利率再低也没用。
【在 s**********a 的大作中提到】
: 这有点胡扯了。5yr ARM 如果能撑到现在的，都巴不得 reset 呢。现在的利率
: 比五六年前可低太多了。
|
a*******e
发帖数: 428 | 20 Now, the sales vs inventory ratio is down to 1.8month for the last month.
Unbelievable.
but
in
【在 a*******e 的大作中提到】
: saw a few times in the last month, a house went on market and got pending
: within a week even two days. Of course, those are relatively good deals, but
: not that type of once-a-year deals. And almost all houses we sent a bid in
: had multiple offers. So, my feeling is the market is turning around. Aglee?
|
b*d
发帖数: 9308 | 21 同意。
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 一定要跟舆论反着走。到处都说别买房的时候，就该下手了。
|
