i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 1 情况 A:
4.00% 30 year fixed, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66
我计算出来 30年总付款 $687,478
情况 B:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,686.42
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $ 355,954 loan balance
月付 $1,803.57
我计算出来 35 年总付款 $750,586
情况 C:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $341,621 loan balance
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
我计算出来 29年9月 总付款 $681,519
我计算正确吗？ 好像 现在 ARM, 以后 refi fixed 风险不小. 月付必须额外付，
refi 时低于 4.55% 才不亏.
当然 ARM rebate, keep on refiing ARM later, interest rate still low when
refi 等等因素可能会让手臂更有吸引力.
但这个 risk vs reward 好象不高啊? | j***k
发帖数: 2719 | 2 your calculation is fine..
BUT... you were assuming someone would actually re-fin in 5 years to fixed
and hold the mortgage until it is cimpletely paid off.
only 1% of ppl actually do that..
For most chinese folks, you would pay the mortage off way ahead of the
schedule .
For most american folks, you would move way before the 30 yr is up..
【在 i****a 的大作中提到】
: 情况 A:
: 4.00% 30 year fixed, $400k Loan
: 月付 $1,909.66
: 我计算出来 30年总付款 $687,478
: 情况 B:
: 3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
: 月付 $1,686.42
: 5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $ 355,954 loan balance
: 月付 $1,803.57
: 我计算出来 35 年总付款 $750,586
| p******y
发帖数: 3523 | 3 如果确定未来会refi成固定rate的话，根本没有必要现在做成ARM。
现在的固定利率很低，如果长远看还是要固定利率的话，就现在下手。
选择ARM的borrower一般是会在5年货7年间还清贷款，还清绝大部分贷款，或者是搬迁
卖房的。基本不是像LZ这样想着过几年refi成固定利率等等的。 | v********e
发帖数: 1985 | 4 总付款算法有问题。即使不考虑通货膨胀，今年付1000刀和30年后付1000刀是完全不同
的。 | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 5 情况 A:
4.00% 30 year fixed, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66
5 年后 loan balance $362,491
7 年后 loan balance $344,998
10年后 loan balance $315,992
15年后 loan balance $259,217
情况 B:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,686.42
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $ 355,954 loan balance
月付 $1,803.57
5 年后 loan balance $356,421 (6,070 savings compared to A)
7 年后 loan balance $344,701 (297 savings compared to A)
10年后 loan balance $325,025 (-9,033 savings compared to A)
情况 C:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $341,621 loan balance
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
5 年后 loan balance $342,248 (20,243 savings compared to A)
7 年后 loan balance $326,552 (18,446 savings compared to A)
10年后 loan balance $300,199 (15,793 savings compared to A)
15年后 loan balance $247,562 (11,655 savings compared to A)
看来 ARM with paying extra every month, 加上早卖是可以省钱 | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 6 不同情况的横向比较, 通胀效果相同
【在 v********e 的大作中提到】
: 总付款算法有问题。即使不考虑通货膨胀，今年付1000刀和30年后付1000刀是完全不同
: 的。
| i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 7 如果几年后打算租出去, 有什么需要考虑的?
发信人: panpandy (dypanpan), 信区: Living
标 题: Re: ARM vs Fixed 的比较
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Feb 28 21:12:01 2012, 美东)
如果确定未来会refi成固定rate的话，根本没有必要现在做成ARM。
现在的固定利率很低，如果长远看还是要固定利率的话，就现在下手。
选择ARM的borrower一般是会在5年货7年间还清贷款，还清绝大部分贷款，或者是搬迁
卖房的。基本不是像LZ这样想著过几年refi成固定利率等等的。
【在 j***k 的大作中提到】
: your calculation is fine..
: BUT... you were assuming someone would actually re-fin in 5 years to fixed
: and hold the mortgage until it is cimpletely paid off.
: only 1% of ppl actually do that..
: For most chinese folks, you would pay the mortage off way ahead of the
: schedule .
: For most american folks, you would move way before the 30 yr is up..
| t**d
发帖数: 6474 | 8 算法不对。请用2.5%贷款100年算一下你最终付多少钱就知道你为什么错了。 | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 9 2.5%, $400k loan, 100 years, total payment $1,089,679
not right? how?
【在 t**d 的大作中提到】
: 算法不对。请用2.5%贷款100年算一下你最终付多少钱就知道你为什么错了。
| k******o
发帖数: 3328 | 10 If you are sure to refinance in 5 years, you may consider fixed since no one
knows the rate a few years later. | | | z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 11 2.5% for 100 years is a much better loan option than all 3 options you gave,
but the total payments is also much higher than for the 3 options you gave.
This shows you cannot just use total payment to compare loans.
【在 i****a 的大作中提到】
: 2.5%, $400k loan, 100 years, total payment $1,089,679
: not right? how?
| i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 12 I don't think I am getting it...
comparing payments made for different rates along the same fixed term, 30 yr
, 100 yr whatever, +/- a few years should be ok ah
if you are referring to inflation as time goes by then it's true. But
inflation shouldn't need to be a significant consideration for a 30 yr loan,
only changing rates after 5 years ba?
gave,
gave.
【在 z*****a 的大作中提到】
: 2.5% for 100 years is a much better loan option than all 3 options you gave,
: but the total payments is also much higher than for the 3 options you gave.
: This shows you cannot just use total payment to compare loans.
| i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 13 Then is it worth the trouble to get ARM and refi after months or couple
years?
US is said to keep interest rate low until 2014.
I hear there the rebate for ARM is very good
one
【在 k******o 的大作中提到】
: If you are sure to refinance in 5 years, you may consider fixed since no one
: knows the rate a few years later.
| s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 14 你得到了。这种arm,fixed的讨论在这里已经三四年了。利率低不是一时半会的事情，
都会持续很长很长时间。ARM 一两年refi一次，继续新的5年才是王道。现在买房的，
我看可以享受10年比30年低一个点。
【在 i****a 的大作中提到】
: Then is it worth the trouble to get ARM and refi after months or couple
: years?
: US is said to keep interest rate low until 2014.
: I hear there the rebate for ARM is very good
:
: one
| v********e
发帖数: 1985 | 15 关键不在总数，第一你的总数算法不对，第二总数意义不大。其实只要比较每年的利率
就可以了。ARM的风险主要在于当五年要到的时候，利率有可能大幅上升。没有人能预
测5年后的利率，美联储也不行。如果直升机本不在05年前后升利率的话，也不会有这
次经济危机，因为那帮现在foreclosure的人还可以以同样的利率refinance。 | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 16 情况 A:
4.00% 30 year fixed, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66
我计算出来 30年总付款 $687,478
情况 B:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,686.42
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $ 355,954 loan balance
月付 $1,803.57
我计算出来 35 年总付款 $750,586
情况 C:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $341,621 loan balance
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
我计算出来 29年9月 总付款 $681,519
我计算正确吗？ 好像 现在 ARM, 以后 refi fixed 风险不小. 月付必须额外付，
refi 时低于 4.55% 才不亏.
当然 ARM rebate, keep on refiing ARM later, interest rate still low when
refi 等等因素可能会让手臂更有吸引力.
但这个 risk vs reward 好象不高啊? | j***k
发帖数: 2719 | 17 your calculation is fine..
BUT... you were assuming someone would actually re-fin in 5 years to fixed
and hold the mortgage until it is cimpletely paid off.
only 1% of ppl actually do that..
For most chinese folks, you would pay the mortage off way ahead of the
schedule .
For most american folks, you would move way before the 30 yr is up..
【在 i****a 的大作中提到】
: 情况 A:
: 4.00% 30 year fixed, $400k Loan
: 月付 $1,909.66
: 我计算出来 30年总付款 $687,478
: 情况 B:
: 3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
: 月付 $1,686.42
: 5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $ 355,954 loan balance
: 月付 $1,803.57
: 我计算出来 35 年总付款 $750,586
| p******y
发帖数: 3523 | 18 如果确定未来会refi成固定rate的话，根本没有必要现在做成ARM。
现在的固定利率很低，如果长远看还是要固定利率的话，就现在下手。
选择ARM的borrower一般是会在5年货7年间还清贷款，还清绝大部分贷款，或者是搬迁
卖房的。基本不是像LZ这样想着过几年refi成固定利率等等的。 | v********e
发帖数: 1985 | 19 总付款算法有问题。即使不考虑通货膨胀，今年付1000刀和30年后付1000刀是完全不同
的。 | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 20 情况 A:
4.00% 30 year fixed, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66
5 年后 loan balance $362,491
7 年后 loan balance $344,998
10年后 loan balance $315,992
15年后 loan balance $259,217
情况 B:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,686.42
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $ 355,954 loan balance
月付 $1,803.57
5 年后 loan balance $356,421 (6,070 savings compared to A)
7 年后 loan balance $344,701 (297 savings compared to A)
10年后 loan balance $325,025 (-9,033 savings compared to A)
情况 C:
3.00% 5 year ARM, $400k Loan
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
5 年后 refi 4.50% 30 year fixed, $341,621 loan balance
月付 $1,909.66 (pay extra, same amount as A)
5 年后 loan balance $342,248 (20,243 savings compared to A)
7 年后 loan balance $326,552 (18,446 savings compared to A)
10年后 loan balance $300,199 (15,793 savings compared to A)
15年后 loan balance $247,562 (11,655 savings compared to A)
看来 ARM with paying extra every month, 加上早卖是可以省钱 | | | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 21 不同情况的横向比较, 通胀效果相同
【在 v********e 的大作中提到】
: 总付款算法有问题。即使不考虑通货膨胀，今年付1000刀和30年后付1000刀是完全不同
: 的。
| i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 22 如果几年后打算租出去, 有什么需要考虑的?
发信人: panpandy (dypanpan), 信区: Living
标 题: Re: ARM vs Fixed 的比较
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Feb 28 21:12:01 2012, 美东)
如果确定未来会refi成固定rate的话，根本没有必要现在做成ARM。
现在的固定利率很低，如果长远看还是要固定利率的话，就现在下手。
选择ARM的borrower一般是会在5年货7年间还清贷款，还清绝大部分贷款，或者是搬迁
卖房的。基本不是像LZ这样想著过几年refi成固定利率等等的。
【在 j***k 的大作中提到】
: your calculation is fine..
: BUT... you were assuming someone would actually re-fin in 5 years to fixed
: and hold the mortgage until it is cimpletely paid off.
: only 1% of ppl actually do that..
: For most chinese folks, you would pay the mortage off way ahead of the
: schedule .
: For most american folks, you would move way before the 30 yr is up..
| t**d
发帖数: 6474 | 23 算法不对。请用2.5%贷款100年算一下你最终付多少钱就知道你为什么错了。 | i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 24 2.5%, $400k loan, 100 years, total payment $1,089,679
not right? how?
【在 t**d 的大作中提到】
: 算法不对。请用2.5%贷款100年算一下你最终付多少钱就知道你为什么错了。
| k******o
发帖数: 3328 | 25 If you are sure to refinance in 5 years, you may consider fixed since no one
knows the rate a few years later. | z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 26 2.5% for 100 years is a much better loan option than all 3 options you gave,
but the total payments is also much higher than for the 3 options you gave.
This shows you cannot just use total payment to compare loans.
【在 i****a 的大作中提到】
: 2.5%, $400k loan, 100 years, total payment $1,089,679
: not right? how?
| i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 27 I don't think I am getting it...
comparing payments made for different rates along the same fixed term, 30 yr
, 100 yr whatever, +/- a few years should be ok ah
if you are referring to inflation as time goes by then it's true. But
inflation shouldn't need to be a significant consideration for a 30 yr loan,
only changing rates after 5 years ba?
gave,
gave.
【在 z*****a 的大作中提到】
: 2.5% for 100 years is a much better loan option than all 3 options you gave,
: but the total payments is also much higher than for the 3 options you gave.
: This shows you cannot just use total payment to compare loans.
| i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 28 Then is it worth the trouble to get ARM and refi after months or couple
years?
US is said to keep interest rate low until 2014.
I hear there the rebate for ARM is very good
one
【在 k******o 的大作中提到】
: If you are sure to refinance in 5 years, you may consider fixed since no one
: knows the rate a few years later.
| s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 29 你得到了。这种arm,fixed的讨论在这里已经三四年了。利率低不是一时半会的事情，
都会持续很长很长时间。ARM 一两年refi一次，继续新的5年才是王道。现在买房的，
我看可以享受10年比30年低一个点。
【在 i****a 的大作中提到】
: Then is it worth the trouble to get ARM and refi after months or couple
: years?
: US is said to keep interest rate low until 2014.
: I hear there the rebate for ARM is very good
:
: one
| v********e
发帖数: 1985 | 30 关键不在总数，第一你的总数算法不对，第二总数意义不大。其实只要比较每年的利率
就可以了。ARM的风险主要在于当五年要到的时候，利率有可能大幅上升。没有人能预
测5年后的利率，美联储也不行。如果直升机本不在05年前后升利率的话，也不会有这
次经济危机，因为那帮现在foreclosure的人还可以以同样的利率refinance。 | | | g***3
发帖数: 2304 | |
|
