j****n
发帖数: 4358 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: jiawen (嘉文), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 大家讨论一下下一个 bubble crash 的诱因及时间？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 17 00:36:15 2013, 美东)
Thanks | u****q
发帖数: 24345 | | t*****e
发帖数: 15794 | 3 美国social。security破产。
2020 to。2030。
【在 j****n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: jiawen (嘉文), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: 大家讨论一下下一个 bubble crash 的诱因及时间？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 17 00:36:15 2013, 美东)
: Thanks
| c****o
发帖数: 32446 | | p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 5 Easy, you should just read the book "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday
Machine".
People on bbs are typically out of touch about how sustainable the bubbles
are, so you should discount their views. Bubbles are sustainable because
participants can all make money out of it. Right now, with rising property
values, buyers make more money (sometimes within the 30 days escrow), seller
make more money, banks make more money, appraisers make more money, agents
make more money...even US government makes more money. So no one is going to
stop it into a bigger bubble.
There are people in Wallstreet who might see it coming, but you will be out
of job if you bet against the crowd and lose. The only time that the bubble
will burst is for smart wallstreet people to be able to bet against the
crowd and be certain to win (typically this requires a lot of resources,
that sometimes only Goldman has). Then the crash comes quickly because the
crowd will immediately all bet against the bubble.
【在 j****n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: jiawen (嘉文), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: 大家讨论一下下一个 bubble crash 的诱因及时间？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 17 00:36:15 2013, 美东)
: Thanks
| l******r
发帖数: 4021 | 6 也许加州的情况与美国大多数的州不同。那边需求还是比较强劲，加上现在的低利率，
以及已经到来的通货膨胀和预期连续的通货膨胀，才出现目前这种抢房情况？
seller
agents
to
out
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Easy, you should just read the book "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday
: Machine".
: People on bbs are typically out of touch about how sustainable the bubbles
: are, so you should discount their views. Bubbles are sustainable because
: participants can all make money out of it. Right now, with rising property
: values, buyers make more money (sometimes within the 30 days escrow), seller
: make more money, banks make more money, appraisers make more money, agents
: make more money...even US government makes more money. So no one is going to
: stop it into a bigger bubble.
: There are people in Wallstreet who might see it coming, but you will be out
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 7 The keyword that CA is different is "migration". California after all is an
attractive place to live.
So in crash, We bottom out when unemployment goes up and migration exits the
state. But in bubble, employment improves and migration of people favors
California over other destinations, when everyone can get a job anywhere.
The rest is supply and demand.
California actually doesn't have significant overbuild in the last bubble (
except maybe cities like stockton, merced), what happened to the demand is
that people migrate out of state and move in with their parents, etc (
increase of housing density). But these are all temporary because the
underlying population growth is strong. We have yet to see employment
improves in CA (construction returns when the real estate price justifies it
??) and add the last fuel needed for a bubble.
California therefore is in perpetual boom/bust cycles. Yes, nationwide, the
last real estate crash is the only one. But not in California, we see it so
many times in history because of the above mechanism.
【在 l******r 的大作中提到】
: 也许加州的情况与美国大多数的州不同。那边需求还是比较强劲，加上现在的低利率，
: 以及已经到来的通货膨胀和预期连续的通货膨胀，才出现目前这种抢房情况？
:
: seller
: agents
: to
: out
| l******r
发帖数: 4021 | 8 还是有点confused。在现在这种情况下，既然job market并没有明显好转，也没有明显
上升，为什么就突然出现疯抢了？你认为主要原因是移民们带着父母进来，造成了the
increase of housing density，这有点奇怪啊，既然job market情况没有好转，为啥
这些
人带着父母进来？
前面那位snowma说是由于“国内贪官富二代现金抢房”造成的，我觉得这应该是她自欺
欺人的自我安慰。那到底什么原因造成现在的这种非理性状况？(当然，如果房价继续疯
涨，现在的这种行为就不能叫做非理性了，就得叫做anticipate了，哈哈)
an
the
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: The keyword that CA is different is "migration". California after all is an
: attractive place to live.
: So in crash, We bottom out when unemployment goes up and migration exits the
: state. But in bubble, employment improves and migration of people favors
: California over other destinations, when everyone can get a job anywhere.
: The rest is supply and demand.
: California actually doesn't have significant overbuild in the last bubble (
: except maybe cities like stockton, merced), what happened to the demand is
: that people migrate out of state and move in with their parents, etc (
: increase of housing density). But these are all temporary because the
| b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 9 我觉得不会，估计让75岁退休，然后娃那一代加大抽税力度。
【在 t*****e 的大作中提到】
: 美国social。security破产。
: 2020 to。2030。
| l**h
发帖数: 7994 | 10 是subprime loan引起的
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
【在 j****n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: jiawen (嘉文), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: 大家讨论一下下一个 bubble crash 的诱因及时间？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 17 00:36:15 2013, 美东)
: Thanks
| | | p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 11 This is an investor driven market so far. The trigger was QE3, which lowers
the mortgage rate and increases the ROI from rental investment. And the
price appreciation is making investors more motivated. There are many levels
of returns that investor would accept. Professional RE investors want 10%
return. But packaged into REIT, people would be very happy with 7-8% return.
Then we have mum-and-pop investors who would be happy for 5% return because
it beats 0% bank interest rate. Finally, we have rich "investor" from China
who just want to get money out of China.
When I say housing density increased last few years, it has nothing to do
with foreigners. American college graduates who can hardly find the job are
delaying moving out from their parents' house or move back if they lost
their jobs. But these boys/girls eventually want to get married and start
their own life, it cannot be postponed forever.
So, what's frightening about this recovery so far, is that the real first-
time buyers have not yet significantly participated in it yet (unlike 2005).
It is not that they are not looking. They are being out-bid by investors
for every bid. Even if they are willing to bid higher, the appraisers are
still very conservative at the moment, so the seller would demand proofs
that they can close the sale if the appraisal comes in much lower. So the
FHA/VA buyers lose every single time, conventional loan are in slightly
better situation, but market favors cash buyers. FHA/VA guys are the "shadow
demand
" of this recovery.
The good news is that there is also "shadow inventory". Not the "bank-owned"
properties that the media let you believe exist. It is people who want to
move but couldn't afford to do so previously. If price rises and makes them
an equity seller, they will.
So the market will eventually balance out at higher price point, which I
think will be 20% higher in SoCal sometimes next Spring. 20% price rise will
make about 50% of underwater homeowners to be able to sell, if they want,
increase the market supply significantly.
the
续疯
【在 l******r 的大作中提到】
: 还是有点confused。在现在这种情况下，既然job market并没有明显好转，也没有明显
: 上升，为什么就突然出现疯抢了？你认为主要原因是移民们带着父母进来，造成了the
: increase of housing density，这有点奇怪啊，既然job market情况没有好转，为啥
: 这些
: 人带着父母进来？
: 前面那位snowma说是由于“国内贪官富二代现金抢房”造成的，我觉得这应该是她自欺
: 欺人的自我安慰。那到底什么原因造成现在的这种非理性状况？(当然，如果房价继续疯
: 涨，现在的这种行为就不能叫做非理性了，就得叫做anticipate了，哈哈)
:
: an
| s*i
发帖数: 5025 | 12 i really like this
lowers
levels
return.
because
China
are
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: This is an investor driven market so far. The trigger was QE3, which lowers
: the mortgage rate and increases the ROI from rental investment. And the
: price appreciation is making investors more motivated. There are many levels
: of returns that investor would accept. Professional RE investors want 10%
: return. But packaged into REIT, people would be very happy with 7-8% return.
: Then we have mum-and-pop investors who would be happy for 5% return because
: it beats 0% bank interest rate. Finally, we have rich "investor" from China
: who just want to get money out of China.
: When I say housing density increased last few years, it has nothing to do
: with foreigners. American college graduates who can hardly find the job are
| f*****i
发帖数: 3558 | 13 你是说next spring，inventory多了价格就能平稳下来，那怎么crash呢？
另外，还是有很多人在09，10年买了自住房
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: This is an investor driven market so far. The trigger was QE3, which lowers
: the mortgage rate and increases the ROI from rental investment. And the
: price appreciation is making investors more motivated. There are many levels
: of returns that investor would accept. Professional RE investors want 10%
: return. But packaged into REIT, people would be very happy with 7-8% return.
: Then we have mum-and-pop investors who would be happy for 5% return because
: it beats 0% bank interest rate. Finally, we have rich "investor" from China
: who just want to get money out of China.
: When I say housing density increased last few years, it has nothing to do
: with foreigners. American college graduates who can hardly find the job are
| p**********9
发帖数: 3463 | 14 房子应该一口价, 每年涨固定百分点,( 就象你的工资),比如2%,政府可以调整, 抗通涨
.买房等于买CD, 国债. 同时降低贷款额.
比如你今年50万买的, 明年就确定可以卖51万...你花钱装修的另算, 那是讨价还价的
部分.
这样只有刚需的才买房卖房...新毕业生工作几年存够首付才能买... | f****i
发帖数: 20252 | 15 不革命就想搞计划经济？
【在 p**********9 的大作中提到】
: 房子应该一口价, 每年涨固定百分点,( 就象你的工资),比如2%,政府可以调整, 抗通涨
: .买房等于买CD, 国债. 同时降低贷款额.
: 比如你今年50万买的, 明年就确定可以卖51万...你花钱装修的另算, 那是讨价还价的
: 部分.
: 这样只有刚需的才买房卖房...新毕业生工作几年存够首付才能买...
| p**********9
发帖数: 3463 | 16 老百姓少被鱼肉...
【在 f****i 的大作中提到】
: 不革命就想搞计划经济？
| f****i
发帖数: 20252 | 17 鱼肉别人的人愿意，被鱼肉的可不干
如果让中国老百姓回去过计划经济的日子，会有多少人乐意？
【在 p**********9 的大作中提到】
: 老百姓少被鱼肉...
| p**********9
发帖数: 3463 | 18 这个和中国的计划经济不同,又不是计划粮油.
每个区的房子是标价不同的, 有钱人还是住富人区.
住房是大部分人的保障, 计划一下不是很好么?
【在 f****i 的大作中提到】
: 鱼肉别人的人愿意，被鱼肉的可不干
: 如果让中国老百姓回去过计划经济的日子，会有多少人乐意？
| r****t
发帖数: 10904 | 19 its move in to live with their parents (in their parent's home)
the
续疯
【在 l******r 的大作中提到】
: 还是有点confused。在现在这种情况下，既然job market并没有明显好转，也没有明显
: 上升，为什么就突然出现疯抢了？你认为主要原因是移民们带着父母进来，造成了the
: increase of housing density，这有点奇怪啊，既然job market情况没有好转，为啥
: 这些
: 人带着父母进来？
: 前面那位snowma说是由于“国内贪官富二代现金抢房”造成的，我觉得这应该是她自欺
: 欺人的自我安慰。那到底什么原因造成现在的这种非理性状况？(当然，如果房价继续疯
: 涨，现在的这种行为就不能叫做非理性了，就得叫做anticipate了，哈哈)
:
: an
| r****t
发帖数: 10904 | 20 跪了
lowers
levels
return.
because
China
are
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: This is an investor driven market so far. The trigger was QE3, which lowers
: the mortgage rate and increases the ROI from rental investment. And the
: price appreciation is making investors more motivated. There are many levels
: of returns that investor would accept. Professional RE investors want 10%
: return. But packaged into REIT, people would be very happy with 7-8% return.
: Then we have mum-and-pop investors who would be happy for 5% return because
: it beats 0% bank interest rate. Finally, we have rich "investor" from China
: who just want to get money out of China.
: When I say housing density increased last few years, it has nothing to do
: with foreigners. American college graduates who can hardly find the job are
| | | r****t
发帖数: 10904 | 21 似曾听说过，2000 年 cal 也是跌的厉害
an
the
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: The keyword that CA is different is "migration". California after all is an
: attractive place to live.
: So in crash, We bottom out when unemployment goes up and migration exits the
: state. But in bubble, employment improves and migration of people favors
: California over other destinations, when everyone can get a job anywhere.
: The rest is supply and demand.
: California actually doesn't have significant overbuild in the last bubble (
: except maybe cities like stockton, merced), what happened to the demand is
: that people migrate out of state and move in with their parents, etc (
: increase of housing density). But these are all temporary because the
| r****t
发帖数: 10904 | 22 孟加拉是这个政策。
【在 p**********9 的大作中提到】
: 房子应该一口价, 每年涨固定百分点,( 就象你的工资),比如2%,政府可以调整, 抗通涨
: .买房等于买CD, 国债. 同时降低贷款额.
: 比如你今年50万买的, 明年就确定可以卖51万...你花钱装修的另算, 那是讨价还价的
: 部分.
: 这样只有刚需的才买房卖房...新毕业生工作几年存够首付才能买...
| s********n
发帖数: 53 | 23 国内最近在叫嚣官员财产公示
一部分人当然要把资产转移出来了
the
续疯
【在 l******r 的大作中提到】
: 还是有点confused。在现在这种情况下，既然job market并没有明显好转，也没有明显
: 上升，为什么就突然出现疯抢了？你认为主要原因是移民们带着父母进来，造成了the
: increase of housing density，这有点奇怪啊，既然job market情况没有好转，为啥
: 这些
: 人带着父母进来？
: 前面那位snowma说是由于“国内贪官富二代现金抢房”造成的，我觉得这应该是她自欺
: 欺人的自我安慰。那到底什么原因造成现在的这种非理性状况？(当然，如果房价继续疯
: 涨，现在的这种行为就不能叫做非理性了，就得叫做anticipate了，哈哈)
:
: an
|
|
