g******g
发帖数: 1310 | 1 http://toshuo.com/2007/economy-taiwan-vs-korea-2000-2006/
As a relatively long term resident of Taiwan, I have some interest in its
economy. Especially now that I’m involved in business here, it isn’t wise
to ignore what I read and hear. One thing I’ve heard again and again is
anguish at how much we’re falling behind our closest rival, Korea.
I suppose comparisons between Taiwan and South Korea are inevitable. Both
were colonized by the Japanese early last century, people of both were split
from their families as a result of World War II, and both went on to become
booming manufacturing centers in the 80′s and 90′s. Right now, Korea and
Taiwan are each involved in electronics markets and both invest heavily in
China. Korea is China’s #1 foreign investor, and the Taiwanese are putting
even more money into the mainland than the Koreans are, via 3rd parties (
since direct investment is restricted by the Taiwanese government).
Comparisons are inevitable.
The most logical place to start is with GDP growth.
GDP Growth
GDP per capita, in US dollars
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Taiwan 14,426 13,028 13,093 13,254 14,205 15,203 15,472
Korea 10,890 10,178 11,482 12,710 14,142 16,308 18,015
All data from the IMF, 2006 data are estimates.
In terms of annualized nominal growth, that gives Taiwan slightly less than
1.2% per year, and Korea over 8.6% per year. However, the major factor for
this difference has been the precipitous drop in the value of the Taiwan
Dollar. Over the last several years, the US dollar has weakened abysmally,
but the Taiwan dollar has been losing ground even against the US dollar. The
following graph charts the strength of the Taiwanese and Korean currencies
against the USD:
Currency
This is bad, but it isn’t all bad. A weaker currency means that people will
be paying more for imports (as well as domestic products that compete with
them), and that their savings are worth less. It is a boon for exporters,
though, and exports make up a crucial portion of Taiwan’s economy. All
things considered, I’d much prefer to have Korea’s economy, but they do
have other problems, such as high housing and labor costs.
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Taiwan 3.0 4.6 5.2 5.0 4.4 4.1 3.9
Korea 4.4 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5
All data from the IMF, 2006 data are estimates.
Possible Explanations
The most common explanation I see in Taiwanese media is that Taiwan’s small
business-based economy can’t keep up with Korea’s huge conglomerates.
There are many reasonable arguments to make for economies of scale, but
while Korea was suffering through the SE Asian economic crisis in 1998,
their newspapers were full of stories about how much more flexible Taiwan’s
small business-driven model was.
One other thing that comes up is the huge amount of turnover in Taiwanese
government positions after the DPP took power in 2000. It definitely had
some economic cost, and a similar though smaller phenomena may repeat itself
if 馬英九 wins the 2008 elections. However, any sort of cost to that sort
of turnover would has been minimal. In fact, South Korea’s political scene
has been more volatile, particularly in regards to Roh’s impeachment.
One thing that really is costing Taiwan, is the regulations on investment in
China. Since direct trade is illegal in many cases, companies work via
shell companies in Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, or other areas. Every time
business is done in that way, the intermediary takes a cut. With the volume
of business the Koreans and Taiwanese do in mainland China, Taiwan’s extra
frictional costs add up. Not being able to make direct flights results in a
cost, too, and it’s the Taiwanese business that has to bear the weight of
it.
Other thoughts
The three-links problem will likely be dealt with soon, regardless of the
result of next year’s elections, but barring any surprises, Korea’s
economy will probably continue to pull ahead. Their free trade agreement
with the US will only accelerate their already impressive growth. | g******g
发帖数: 1310 | 2 I like to read this first before thinking the question below.
假如现在由反对中共的人在大陆当政，百姓的日子会咋样？ | N**t
发帖数: 1738 | 3 人原文作者都说了, 拿政治说(台湾经济的)事很无聊, 因为韩国政坛在同一时期也不是
一般的乱, 你到底想说什么? 反共人士
在大陆当政就会像台湾一样让百姓的日子不好过? 那你不该贴这篇文章的, 建议你另贴
一篇.
【在 g******g 的大作中提到】
: I like to read this first before thinking the question below.
: 假如现在由反对中共的人在大陆当政，百姓的日子会咋样？
| g******g
发帖数: 1310 | 4 I want to say that most Chinese want to have the life as bad/good as those
in Taiwan, believe or not.
【在 N**t 的大作中提到】
: 人原文作者都说了, 拿政治说(台湾经济的)事很无聊, 因为韩国政坛在同一时期也不是
: 一般的乱, 你到底想说什么? 反共人士
: 在大陆当政就会像台湾一样让百姓的日子不好过? 那你不该贴这篇文章的, 建议你另贴
: 一篇.
| L***g
发帖数: 975 | | g******g
发帖数: 1310 | 6 Why does 大陆养着弯弯?
【在 L***g 的大作中提到】
: 弯弯要是没有大陆现在养着，就更完蛋了。
| f**k
发帖数: 15238 | 7 这不好讲
现在把两岸的物流停一周,你就懂了
【在 g******g 的大作中提到】
: Why does 大陆养着弯弯?
| g******g
发帖数: 1310 | 8 So I should say that US养着大陆?
【在 f**k 的大作中提到】
: 这不好讲
: 现在把两岸的物流停一周,你就懂了
| f**k
发帖数: 15238 | 9 啊?
你是怎么should say的?
你把太平洋物流停一周,看谁更急不就行了
【在 g******g 的大作中提到】
: So I should say that US养着大陆?
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 10 这篇文章还真的不用看就可以回答问题了.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Military/34740781_0.html
【在 g******g 的大作中提到】
: I like to read this first before thinking the question below.
: 假如现在由反对中共的人在大陆当政，百姓的日子会咋样？
|
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