c**i 发帖数: 6973 | 1 BBC CHinese, Jan. 7, 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/world/2011/01/110107_wikilea
("这份战略评估报告认为,中国军事实力逐渐增强,加上解放军缺乏作战经验,在民族
主义日益高涨和国民对中国在全球地位的期待不断增长之际,北京很可能会过度估计自
身的军事实力,从而导致冲突发生。报告称,这种错觉可能导致严重的误判或危机,并
使原本很小的事件迅速升级。")
My comment:
(a) The report is based on
Philip Dorling, Chinese expansion fears revealed. Sydney Morning Herald, Jan
. 7, 2011.
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/chinese-expans
("''The rapid improvements in PLA capabilities, coupled with a lack of
operational experience and faith in asymmetric strategies, could lead to
China overestimating its military capability. These factors, coupled with
rising nationalism, heightened expectations of China's status, China's
historical predilection for strategic deception, difficulties with Japan,
and the Taiwan issue mean that miscalculations and minor events could
quickly escalate.''')
(b) This is a 2006 strategic assessment by Australia's intelligence agencies
, which Australia Foreign Affairs officials provided to the US embassy in
Canberra. The latter sent a cable back to Washington DC, and subsequently
WikiLeaks snatched the cable. | l**m 发帖数: 5113 | 2 这是在给中国敲警钟么?
呵呵
Jan
【在 c**i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : BBC CHinese, Jan. 7, 2011. : http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/world/2011/01/110107_wikilea : ("这份战略评估报告认为,中国军事实力逐渐增强,加上解放军缺乏作战经验,在民族 : 主义日益高涨和国民对中国在全球地位的期待不断增长之际,北京很可能会过度估计自 : 身的军事实力,从而导致冲突发生。报告称,这种错觉可能导致严重的误判或危机,并 : 使原本很小的事件迅速升级。") : My comment: : (a) The report is based on : Philip Dorling, Chinese expansion fears revealed. Sydney Morning Herald, Jan : . 7, 2011.
| J*0 发帖数: 207 | 3 我觉得是美帝过高的估计了土共的实力
Jan
【在 c**i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : BBC CHinese, Jan. 7, 2011. : http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/world/2011/01/110107_wikilea : ("这份战略评估报告认为,中国军事实力逐渐增强,加上解放军缺乏作战经验,在民族 : 主义日益高涨和国民对中国在全球地位的期待不断增长之际,北京很可能会过度估计自 : 身的军事实力,从而导致冲突发生。报告称,这种错觉可能导致严重的误判或危机,并 : 使原本很小的事件迅速升级。") : My comment: : (a) The report is based on : Philip Dorling, Chinese expansion fears revealed. Sydney Morning Herald, Jan : . 7, 2011.
| l**m 发帖数: 5113 | 4 是美帝警告中国不要冒进,呵呵
【在 J*0 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我觉得是美帝过高的估计了土共的实力 : : Jan
| J*0 发帖数: 207 | 5 美帝警告中国老实,这跟中国什么实力没关系
【在 l**m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 是美帝警告中国不要冒进,呵呵
| w*********g 发帖数: 30882 | 6 写的太好了,应该发给白宫,告诉他们中国其实很弱,就快崩溃了,尽快放开对华高科
技出口吧 | z******0 发帖数: 1014 | 7 哈哈, 你老老是不把人家当人看, 这不公平啊, 好歹wikileak也和特务们唱过双簧啊
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 写的太好了,应该发给白宫,告诉他们中国其实很弱,就快崩溃了,尽快放开对华高科 : 技出口吧
| d**o 发帖数: 5158 | |
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