a********6
发帖数: 14468 | 1 http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html
By Lev Grossman 作者；来福.粗人
On Feb. 15, 1965, a diffident but self-possessed high school student named
Raymond Kurzweil appeared as a guest on a game show called I've Got a Secret
.。。。
65年情人节刚过，一个牛比烘烘的高中生 瑞忙 客死围瓯出席一个电视节目，叫做我有
一个小秘。
But now, 46 years later, Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment
when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more
intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our
minds, our civilization — will be completely and irreversibly transformed.
He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According
to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35
years away.
Computers are getting faster. Everybody knows that. Also, computers are
getting faster faster — that is, the rate at which they're getting faster
is increasing.
46年后，他相信人类正处于一个前所未有的时刻，电脑将比人类变得更聪明。面对这个
潮流，人类将被彻底转变。据他的计算，35年后人类文明消失。计算机变得更快更高更
强大，这个变化速度比人快。这个变化速度的变化速度（求导）也比人快。
True? True.是吗？不是吗？
。。。 | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 2 这大叔有点走火入魔的说，每天吃贼多维他命补药啥的，丫是真的想长生不老 | a********6
发帖数: 14468 | 3 这个马克思主义哲学早就讨论过了，批判了人是机器的说法，机器再牛比也开始机器。
要说超过人类，计算机的计算能力和精准度早就超过人类了。这个超过的方面还会继续
发展。但超不过的方面可能永远超不过，比如模糊数学。模糊数学方面至少机器还有进
步。另外一些方面进步都很难看到，比如嗅觉，比如繁殖。
【在 p******u 的大作中提到】
: 这大叔有点走火入魔的说，每天吃贼多维他命补药啥的，丫是真的想长生不老
| e*****s
发帖数: 7359 | 4 I think if you have some knowledge of biology, evolution, and neuroscience,
you would probably agree with him.
the difference between human and other primate mammals such as apes is not
that big in terms of neural hardware. it's very likely largely due to the
difference in computing capacity. Besides, intelligence does not need the
prerequisite of reproduction. | a********6
发帖数: 14468 | 5 从某个层面来说，电脑已经超过了最聪明的人，比如下象棋，貌似卡斯帕罗夫被多次击
败。
但是，由此担心计算机能否对人类生存构成威胁，或者更先进的电脑帮着人变得更聪明
，还是需要想象力的。
,
【在 e*****s 的大作中提到】
: I think if you have some knowledge of biology, evolution, and neuroscience,
: you would probably agree with him.
: the difference between human and other primate mammals such as apes is not
: that big in terms of neural hardware. it's very likely largely due to the
: difference in computing capacity. Besides, intelligence does not need the
: prerequisite of reproduction.
| a***o
发帖数: 3734 | 6 人有两样东西，难以想象计算机可以模拟，一是自我意识，更重要的是欲望。人一切的
思考，行为，其根源都是“我要blah blah东西”。你当然可以给计算机开个欲望的
list，但是如此一来计算机永远也超不过那个开list的人，计算机的创造力只局限于完
成那个wishlist的手段。如果不能自发的产生欲望，创造力终归是有限度的。
Secret
【在 a********6 的大作中提到】
: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html
: By Lev Grossman 作者；来福.粗人
: On Feb. 15, 1965, a diffident but self-possessed high school student named
: Raymond Kurzweil appeared as a guest on a game show called I've Got a Secret
: .。。。
: 65年情人节刚过，一个牛比烘烘的高中生 瑞忙 客死围瓯出席一个电视节目，叫做我有
: 一个小秘。
: But now, 46 years later, Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment
: when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more
: intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our
|
|
