j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 1 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2011/01/16/top-10-powerful-count
2011/
The Chinese have an interesting concept that quantifies Great Power
status, called Comprehensive National Power (CNP). This index is
produced by processing the economic, military and cultural factors that
make countries powerful: GDP, technological development, number of tanks
and ICBM’s, as well as “softer” factors such as influence on global
media and international institutions. Since I’m not a think-tank, I
can’t be bothered doing it “scientifically” by coming up with formulas
and looking up all the hundreds of relevant stats that typically go into
CNP calculations. But it’s surely possible to make rough estimates. Here
they are.
1. The USA is still undoubtedly the world’s leading superpower. It has
China’s (gross) economic size, matches Russia’s strategic military
power, and is as technologically advanced as Japan with 2.5x its
population. Meanwhile, its conventional military power, power projection
capabilities and cultural influence remain globally hegemonic. But its
Number One position isn’t secure. Political capture by special interests
at home and “imperial overstretch” abroad has made its fiscal situation
patently unsustainable. This in turn threatens its dominant military
position, especially coupled with accelerating Chinese military
modernization. Finally, the very globalization that underpins Pax
America also users in developments that actually undermine it, e.g. the
economic rise of the BRICs and the growing influence of non-Western
media outlets (e.g. Al-Jazeera, Russia Today). CNP – 100.
2. China is rapidly emerging as the next global superpower, now boasting
the world’s largest manufacturing sector and (arguably) the biggest
economy in terms of real GDP. Furthermore, they have calculatedly taken
a lead in many of the world’s most prospective and hi-tech sectors, e.g.
renewable energy, hi-speed railways and supercomputers. China’s rapid
military modernization has already yielded it the world’s biggest navy
by warship numbers and advanced drones and stealth fighters. This is all
founded on a literate, 1.3bn-strong populace driving 10% economic growth
rates (and there’s no reason these should fall drastically any time
soon, since average Chinese incomes have plenty of space left to catch
up with the West). Now assuming unforeseen shocks such as political
collapse or an abrupt peaking and decline in coal production don’t
derail progress, it’s very likely China will supplant the US as the
global hegemon as early as 2020. CNP – 75.
3. Though Russia‘s population and real GDP (c. Germany) are respectable,
they are out of the Big Two’s league (in terms of raw power, it was
probably overtaken by China in 2008 because of the depth of its
recession and Chinese military catch-up). Nonetheless, it may deserve
the title of “third superpower” by dint of its nuclear parity with the
US, military-industrial strength, and vast resource base. Covering
northern Eurasia, and informally dominating Central Asia, Russia is both
self-sufficient in energy and minerals, and has the armed strength to
defend them. The world’s increasing food and fuel supply challenges
place Russia in an enviable position to exploit its strength.
Furthermore, global warming is melting the Arctic, opening up shipping
routes, energy sources and living space – a development Russia is
uniquely positioned to take advantage of. CNP – 60.
4. In terms of power politics, France is a lot like the US, just 5x
smaller in scale. It is influential globally and in the EU, has a self-
sustained nuclear arsenal and MIC, and its own semi-satrapies in West
Africa. It also has the healthiest demographic indicators in ageing
Europe; its economy is versatile, productive and robust; and its nuclear
power industry and links with the Maghreb nations make for a
(relatively) secure energy future. Overall, it is likely that France
will be the predominant West European power of the next decades. CNP –
35.
5. Germany has a powerful economy, and its fiscal rectitude and export
competitiveness have made it the dominant influence in the Eurozone. In
the longterm, however, Germany’s prospects dim: its demographic problems
are the most intractable in the European continent (fertility rates fell
below 1.5 children per woman back in the 1970′s and remained there
since). Hence the reliance on exports to provide savings for its rapidly
aging population. What would Germany do if the Mediterranean breaks from
the Eurozone and the outside world becomes more protectionist? Its
conscript army is obsolete and nuclear weapons non-existent, but these
can be quickly fixed. CNP – 30.
6. Japan is similar to Germany, but with 1.5x its population, several
times its problems (e.g. even more rapidly aging population; 220%-of-GDP
debt) and without Germany’s key advantage (a continental market). It is
militarily weak and utterly reliant on food, fuel and mineral imports,
many of which pass through waters over which China claims preeminence.
Though one of the most technologically advanced nations on Earth, it
faces an uncertain future as the US wanes and China’s rise eclipses it.
But like Germany, it’s theoretically capable of rapid transformation
into a leading military power. CNP – 30.
7. The UK is ostensibly similar to France, but has critical weaknesses
that now undermine its Great Power status. It has a fiscal hole little
better than that of Ireland or Greece; the current government is
disinvesting in the future (university education) and the military;
suffers from a smaller version of US “imperial overstretch”; is falling
into an energetic black hole; and the City of London, which is a giant
source of tax revenue, has poor longterm prospects. CNP – 25.
8. Though at first glance India might appear similar to China, or at
least following in its footsteps, the real situation is far gloomier.
The (educational) human capital of Chinese youth is now equal to (or
above) the OECD rich country average; India still hasn’t finished
eradicating illiteracy. This is of great import since educational levels
are the single biggest influence on growth prospects. China has 10x more
manufacturing output, 6x more Internet users and 3x more infrastructure
spending. Though India’s land forces are more than capable of crushing
Pakistan, its navy is quantitatively and qualitatively inferior to
China’s, a matter of some import given that both countries are dependent
on fuel and mineral supplies from the Middle East and Africa. And the
precariousness of India’s food situation in a warming world – and its
inability to pay for imports or seize them – makes its longterm
prospects decidedly glum. CNP – 25.
9. With its ample lands and resources, not to mention its successes with
sugar cane-derived ethanol, Brazil is set to enjoy – much like Russia –
a comfortable existence as a regional hegemon in a world of rising
demand for food, energy and minerals. (Though its military is much
weaker than Russia’s, it doesn’t need to be particularly strong given
Brazil’s geographical isolation). It is also playing an increasingly
visible global role, together with countries like Turkey and South
Africa, as a representative of “The Rest” (as distinct from “The West”).
But its future prospects for true superpowerdom are constrained by its
low educational human capital. CNP – 20.
10. Though Canada or South Korea or even Italy could just as easily take
this spot, in the end I decided it should go to Turkey. It’s not just
that it has a rapidly developing economy, or that it has the most
powerful conventional forces in the Middle East, or that its control of
river headwaters gives it leverage over states like Iraq and Lebanon. It
is the major Muslim country that is most comfortable with integrating
religious tradition with socio-economic modernity. This makes it a role
model – and possible future leader – for many Muslims in the Middle
East; then it also has ethno-linguistic connections with Turkic peoples
to the east, in Azerbaijan, western Iran, and even Central Asia. Its
soft power and willingness to exercise sovereignty in the international
sphere earns it the tenth place. CNP – 20.
There are other countries with a similar CNP of 20. These include Canada
(a potential future superpower as the Arctic opens up – assuming the US
doesn’t swallow it first); South Korea (vibrant economic base, but has
many of Japan’s strategic problems and is preoccupied with the North);
and Italy (a modern France-sized economy but not much else).
Further down the list, with a CNP of 15, we get Saudi Arabia (world’s
swing oil producer but backwards, politically fragile and reliant on US
support); Iran (most visible challenger to the current international
order and has leverage over its capability to shut down the Strait of
Hormuz); Mexico; Australia; Spain; Venezuela (soft power through ideas
of 21st century socialism); and South Africa (mineral resources and
informal spokescountry for sub-Saharan Africa).
Note – So I don’t have to cover this in the comments. Many “analysts”
will jump on my back for neglecting to mention the salubrious effects of
India’s democracy, or how corruption dooms Russia to eternal slippage.
The reason – as I’ve endlessly argued on this blog – is that these kinds
of arguments are frequently flawed even where only living standards and
civil rights are concerned (e.g. I’m sure the 47% of Indian children who
are malnourished have nothing but praise for their glorious democracy,
as does the rights activist Binayak Sen given a life sentence for
supporting Maoism), not to mention completely nonsensical when comparing
and projecting national power (e.g. Russia’s corruption is fairly
standard for middle-income countries, and the Chinese authoritarian
system of state capitalism has arguably very much helped rather than
hindered its development). | b*******k
发帖数: 16989 | 2 我觉得俄国的应该排在中国前面，
至于欧洲日本那些小国，只不过是美国的干儿子，有什么power可言
【在 j****y 的大作中提到】
: http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2011/01/16/top-10-powerful-count
: 2011/
: The Chinese have an interesting concept that quantifies Great Power
: status, called Comprehensive National Power (CNP). This index is
: produced by processing the economic, military and cultural factors that
: make countries powerful: GDP, technological development, number of tanks
: and ICBM’s, as well as “softer” factors such as influence on global
: media and international institutions. Since I’m not a think-tank, I
: can’t be bothered doing it “scientifically” by coming up with formulas
: and looking up all the hundreds of relevant stats that typically go into
| j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 3 Wiki 上找到三种国力排名，两种都把中国排在俄国前面，倒是中国自己搞的排名把俄
国排得高。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_Index_of_National_Capabi
1 China
2 United States
3 India
4 Japan
5 Russia
6 Brazil
7 Germany
8 South Korea
9 United Kingdom
10 France
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Power_Index
USA
EU
China
India
Japan
Russia
Brazil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_National_Power (中国国产排名)
1 United States 90.62
2 United Kingdom 65.04
3 Russia 63.03
4 France 62.00
5 Germany 61.93
6 China 59.10
7 Japan 57.84
8 Canada 57.09
9 South Korea 53.20
10 India 50.43
【在 b*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得俄国的应该排在中国前面，
: 至于欧洲日本那些小国，只不过是美国的干儿子，有什么power可言
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