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发帖数: 12072 | 1 一组数据反映的美国目前的经济困境 [ 海外俗人 ] 于:2011-10-13 11:08:14 主题帖
美国的困境，从这些数据可以反映：
The Federal government borrowed and spent $6.1 trillion over the past four
years to generate a cumulative $700 billion increase in the nation's GDP.
That means we've borrowed and spent $8.70 for every $1 of nominal "growth"
in GDP.
在过去的四年里，联邦政府累计花费了6.1万亿却只制造了累计7千亿的GDP的增长。相
当于花了8.7元去求得1元的增长。
Total public debt in 2007 (pre-recession) was $8.95 trillion.
Total public debt in 2010 was $13.53 trillion.
This is an increase of $4.58 trillion. Add in the 2011 deficit of $1.6
trillion and the total is $6.1 trillion in additional debt in the four years
from 2008 to 2011.
以下为数据的计算来由：
2007年的公共债务：8.95万亿
2010年的公共债务：13.53万亿，增长了4.58万亿，加上2011年预计的1.6万亿赤字，
共计6.1万亿。
GDP in 2007 (pre-recession): $14.08 trillion
GDP in 2008 (recession starts): $14.44 trillion ($364 billion gain)
GDP in 2009 (recession officially ends in mid-2009): $14.12 trillion ($322
billion decline)
GDP in 2010: $14.51 trillion ($390 billion gain)
Let's be generous and assume the U.S. economy continues "growing" at the
first-quarter pace of 1.8% for all of 2011: GDP advanced 1.8% in Q1 2011 (
BEA). That would add $260 billion to the 2010 GDP, so the GDP at the end of
fiscal year 2011 would total $14.77 trillion in nominal dollars. In constant
dollars, it might reach back up to 2007 levels, but only if the economy
doesn't roll over.
Total up the gains and declines in annual GDP for the four years from 2008
through 2011, and you get $690 billion.
以上列出了2007年以来的GDP，并加上了比较乐观估计的2011年的GDP的增长，得出四年
GDP累计增长6千九百亿的结果。
Federal revenues -联邦收入
2007 $2.56 trillion
2010 $2.16 trillion
Federal spending 联邦支出
2007 $2.72 trillion
2010 $3.72 trillion
In three years, Federal spending jumped almost exactly $1 trillion, or 36.7%.
In 2011, the Federal deficit is 11% of the nation's GDP.
In 2011, the Federal government is borrowing 42% of its expenditures.
联邦支出三年增长了一万亿，相当于36.7%的增长。
2011年的联邦财政赤字将是GDP的11%
在2011年，联邦政府的42%的支出要靠借债维持。
以下是2008年以来的联邦赤字：
Here are the deficits of the past three years, and the estimated shortfalls
for fiscal year 2011:
2008: $458 billion
2009: $1.4 trillion
2010: $1.3 trillion
2011: $1.6 trillion (est.)
总计为4.758万亿联邦政府赤字。
These don't include "supplemental appropriations" for war costs, losses in
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, etc., which is why the debt has risen by more
than the sum of the "official" deficits.
由于其他一些预算外的费用和补贴，例如战争拨款，两房的损失，所以总的联邦赤字（
4.758万亿）看上去比总的国债增加额（6.1万亿）要小。
Notice the trend here? The deficits keep getting larger as the "recovery"
continues. If we keep "recovering" at this pace, we'll soon be borrowing 50%
of the Federal budget each and every year.
注意一下上面的从08年开始的赤字增长的趋势。赤字随着“复苏”在不断恶化，如果这
种“复苏”继续，不久联邦政府的预算有一半得靠借债来充实。 |
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