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发帖数: 4825 | 1 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/business/global/chinas-push-f
GUANGZHOU, China — Three years ago, as part of its green-energy policy, the
Chinese government set an ambitious goal: by the end of 2011, the nation
would be able to produce at least 500,000 hybrid or all-electric cars and
buses a year.
With only about a week to go, it is clear China will fall far short of that
target. Despite dozens of electric-vehicle demonstration projects around the
country, analysts put China’s actual annual production capacity at only
several thousand hybrid and all-electric cars and buses.
“It’s pretty trivial at this stage — they hardly sell any,” said Lin
Huaibin, the manager of China vehicle sales forecasts at IHS Automotive, a
global consulting firm.
Obstacles include continued technological hurdles, disputes over technology
transfers by multinational automakers, and a broad wariness by the Chinese
public regarding alternative-technology cars.
But it would be shortsighted to count out China’s electric car efforts just
yet. Only a few months ago Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called for Beijing to
create a new “road map” for energy-saving vehicles.
Unlike in other nations, where automakers are leading the push for electric
vehicles, in China the effort is being led largely by one of the country’s
most powerful industries — the state-run electric companies that operate
the national power grid. With China expected to surpass the United States in
the number of all vehicles on the road by as early as 2020, the government-
run utilities see it as their job to provide an alternative to imported oil
as a way to power several hundred million cars, trucks and buses.
This month in this sprawling southern industrial city, for example, the
giant China Southern Power Grid company opened a sales and service center
for electric cars.
The new three-story building, resembling a giant lizard egg of lime-green
glass, is a showcase for technology supplied by Better Place, a start-up
based in Palo Alto, Calif. Under the Better Place business model, customers
do not recharge their electric cars but instead periodically stop at an
electric filling station to swap their nearly depleted batteries for freshly
charged ones.
And just because there are no customers kicking the tires now doesn’t mean
China Southern Grid, as it is commonly known, isn’t in the electric-vehicle
game for the long haul. The power company and Better Place are in talks to
sell electric cars to the Guangzhou municipal government and to taxi fleets,
according to Shai Agassi, Better Place’s founder and chief executive.
The demonstration project showcases imported Renault Laguna sedans and
Nissan Dualis crossover utility vehicles whose gasoline-fueled power trains
have been replaced with electric motors and swappable batteries. But the
companies are in talks with Chinese automakers to produce battery-powered
cars, for which no price has been set.
In a separate bet, meanwhile, China Southern Grid has also built recharging
stations in another big southern industrial city, Shenzhen, for electric
buses and cars made by a Chinese automaker, BYD, which has Warren E. Buffett
among its investors.
Though automakers in other countries have supplied charging equipment to be
installed at homes and parking lots, China’s power industry has already
made it clear that it wants to dictate when and how plug-in gasoline-
electric hybrids and all-electric cars are charged, by owning the charging
equipment and setting technical standards.
“It is more and more difficult to manage the grid; we need more flexibility
,” by controlling how cars are recharged, said Zhang Diansheng, the deputy
general manager of China Southern Grid.
After initially seeking to leapfrog Japan and the West by moving straight
from internal combustion engines to cars powered only by batteries, Chinese
policy makers are now paying more attention to hybrids that combine gasoline
engines with electric motors. (As battery-fire problems with the Chevrolet
Volt in the United States have recently indicated, technical problems still
bedevil electric automotive technology.)
Even some of the Chinese companies like BYD that have bet most heavily on
all-electric cars are now investing in plug-in hybrid cars that have
gasoline engines as well as batteries.
“More and more companies are certainly going to do it like this,” Wang
Chuanfu, BYD’s founder and chairman, said in an interview at his company’s
headquarters in Shenzhen. But he quickly added, “there is still tremendous
potential in the Chinese market for electric cars.”
Some of the obstacles that have slowed deployment of all-electric cars in
China also exist in other markets. The cars’ range, less than 200 miles
even under ideal conditions, falls steeply in cold weather, if the air-
conditioner is turned on or if the car was not fully charged overnight.
“I’m not interested in them — I worry I’d run out of electricity and get
stuck,” said Mu Zhongbao, a 31-year-old businessman who paid the
equivalent of $130,000 for an Audi Q7 minivan on a recent afternoon here at
one of the many dealerships near the Better Place site.
Southern China Grid’s Better Place demonstration project indicates that
powerful interests in China still back the development of all-electric cars.
“I see the Chinese fully committed on a path toward electric vehicles —
the time frame may shift, the volume numbers may shift,” said Raymond
Bierzynski, the executive director of electrification strategy at General
Motors China.
Some executives say that China has fallen behind its schedule for hybrid and
all-electric cars because it has put heavy pressure on multinationals to
transfer technology to their Chinese partners to be eligible for generous
subsidies for the sale of alternative-energy vehicles in China. Some foreign
manufacturers have responded by withholding some of their latest models
from the Chinese market — as Nissan has with the electric Leaf.
G.M. has put the Volt on sale in China, despite the Chinese government’s
decision to make it ineligible for renewable energy subsidies of up to $19,
300 per car. That is because G.M. has not transferred enough of the
technology to satisfy Beijing, although G.M. did agree this autumn to share
some electric technology in the coming years.
“By forcing foreign technology sources into a junior role, that’s going to
significantly slow the development of the technology in China,” said Bill
Russo, a former auto executive who oversaw the Chinese and Korean markets
for Chrysler and is now an industry consultant in Beijing.
But the betting in China is that China Southern Grid and another big grid
operator, the State Grid Corporation, and their allies among the country’s
five main electricity generation companies have much more influence in
Beijing than the auto industry.
The Chinese auto industry was tiny until the last decade, and very few of
its executives have wound up in senior government positions. By contrast,
specializing in electric power has long been a path to the top of the
Chinese Communist Party for leaders like Li Peng, the former premier.
And as long as the electric companies are influential, all-battery cars may
hold the political edge over hybrids.
But what is not clear is which of three experimental approaches to
recharging will eventually dominate the field: the so-called fast charging
of vehicle batteries at recharging centers; overnight charging options at
homes and parking lots; or battery swapping à la Better Place.
Meantime, World Trade Organization rules are also influencing how China
approaches electric cars, said a Chinese official close to the decision-
making who insisted on anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly
discuss transportation policy.
The government wants to build an electric car industry that can export
vehicles all over the world. But it does not want to someday face W.T.O.
trade complaints from other countries that might accuse China of violating
free-trade export rules by subsidizing the industry’s development. With
China having raised trade tensions with the United States earlier this month
by slapping additional tariffs on a range of American imported autos,
Beijing may need to tread more carefully than ever.
The most promising trade strategy for China to avoid legal pitfalls might be
for the government first to subsidize the development of a network of
charging stations for electric buses and other municipal vehicles, the
Chinese official said. Mass transit subsidies are hard to challenge at the W
.T.O. because they involve an almost purely domestic government service.
The bus recharging stations, and the lessons learned in building them, might
then be used in a more extensive network of electric car recharging
stations. Subsidizing the charging stations could help make electric cars
more affordable, and in turn help Chinese automakers achieve economies of
scale in their home market that would help them build up an export business.
Already BYD is expanding its annual capacity to manufacture all-electric
buses — 1,000 this year, up from 500 last year and with a target of 5,000
next year.
Mr. Agassi of Better Place predicted China would become a large-scale maker
of electric cars and then start exporting them. “This is the fork-in-the-
road moment” for China, Mr. Agassi said. “You get to a trade deficit on
oil imports, or you get to a trade surplus with a lot of car exports.” | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 2 靠，米帝ok！土鳖汽车年产销量超过米帝还不算数，市场流通汽车得到2020才能超过米
帝，所以又淫了！
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【在 u***r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/business/global/chinas-push-f
: GUANGZHOU, China — Three years ago, as part of its green-energy policy, the
: Chinese government set an ambitious goal: by the end of 2011, the nation
: would be able to produce at least 500,000 hybrid or all-electric cars and
: buses a year.
: With only about a week to go, it is clear China will fall far short of that
: target. Despite dozens of electric-vehicle demonstration projects around the
: country, analysts put China’s actual annual production capacity at only
: several thousand hybrid and all-electric cars and buses.
: “It’s pretty trivial at this stage — they hardly sell any,” said Lin
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