c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020477860457723890
China Needs Deep Reform, Says Upcoming Report
BEIJING—China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep
reforms, according to a report by the World Bank and a Chinese government
think tank, which urges Beijing to scale back its vast state-owned
enterprises and make them operate more like commercial firms.
The recommendation is contained in "China 2030," a report set to be released
Monday, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and
reviewing it.
The report, which addresses some of China's most politically sensitive
economic issues, is designed to influence the next generation of Chinese
leaders who take office starting this year, these people said.
。。。 | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 2 It challenges the way China's economic model has developed during the past
decade under President Hu Jintao, when the role of the state in the world's
second-largest economy has steadily expanded.
"China 2030" cautions that China's growth is in danger of decelerating
rapidly and without much warning, as has occurred with many high-flying
developing countries once they reach a certain income level, a phenomenon
that development economists call the "middle-income trap." A sharp slowdown
could deepen problems in the banking sector and elsewhere, the report warns,
and could prompt a crisis, according to those involved with the project.
It recommends that state-owned firms should be overseen by asset-management
firms, say those involved in the report. It also urges China to overhaul
local government finances and promote competition and entrepreneurship.
"China's state-owned sector is at a crossroads," said Fred Hu, chief
executive of Primavera Capital Group, a Beijing investment firm. The Chinese
government must decide "whether it wants state-led capitalism dominated by
giant state-owned corporations or free-market entrepreneurship." | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 3 Even ahead of its release, the report has generated fierce resistance from
bureaucrats who manage state enterprises, according to several individuals
involved in the discussions.
China's political heir apparent, Xi Jinping, now vice president, has given
few clues about his economic policies. Analysts expect the high-profile
report will help to shape discussions among Mr. Xi and his allies about
whether to make changes to a state-led economic model that has alarmed
Chinese private entrepreneurs and is becoming a source of growing tension
between China and its main trading partners, including the U.S.
The report's authors argue that having the imprimatur of the World Bank and
the Development Research Center, or DRC—which reports to China's top
executive body, the State Council—will add political heft to the proposals.
The World Bank is widely admired in Chinese government circles,
particularly for its advice in helping China design early market reforms.
"The report lays out recommendations for a development growth path for the
medium term, helping China make the transition to become a high-income
society," said World Bank President Robert Zoellick in a statement
announcing the report would be released.
Neither the World Bank nor DRC would comment specifically on the "China 2030
" findings. | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 4 Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang, who is expected to be named premier next
year, endorsed the Chinese-World Bank project when Mr. Zoellick proposed it
during a trip to Beijing in September 2010. Its authors are also counting on
the No. 2 official at the DRC, Liu He, who is also a senior adviser to the
all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, to help ensure that its findings
are considered seriously by top leaders. Mr. Liu declined to comment.
Among the most contentious areas in the report: how to manage state-owned
enterprises, which dominate the nation's energy, natural resources,
telecommunications and infrastructure industries and have easy access to low
-interest loans from state-owned banks.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other Western officials argue
that subsidies to those firms distort international competition.
Domestically, critics complain that the firms choke off internal competition
, use monopoly profits to expand into other businesses and pay only meager
dividends.
The World Bank and DRC argue that asset-management firms should oversee the
state-owned companies, say those involved in the report. The asset managers
would try to ensure that the firms are run along commercial lines, not for
political purposes. They would sell off businesses that are judged
extraneous, making it easier for privately owned firms to compete in areas
that are spun off.
"China needs to restrict the roles of the state-owned enterprises, break up
monopolies, diversify ownership and lower entry barrier to private firms,"
said Mr. Zoellick in a talk to economists in Chicago last month.
Currently, many state-owned firms have real-estate subsidiaries, which tend
to bid up prices for land, and have helped to create a housing bubble that
the Chinese government is trying to deflate. | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 5 The report also recommends a sharp increase in the dividends that state
companies pay, which would boost budget revenue and pay for new social
programs, said those involved with the report.
Chinese and U.S. economists say that dividend money from profitable state-
owned firms now are often directed to unprofitable ones by the State-owned
Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or SASAC, which regulates
the firms and tries to ensure their profitability.
"It's an innovative proposal," said Yiping Huang,a Barclays Capital
economist. But others argue that the proposals don't go far enough. Neither
the World Bank nor the DRC proposed privatizing the state-owned firms,
figuring that was politically unacceptable.
SASAC and the Communist Party's personnel agency name heads of state-owned
firms and can replace them, giving the government great sway over the firms'
decision-making. It isn't clear whether the report recommends changing that
arrangement or proposes how the asset managers should be hired and fired.
How to handle such personnel "was the most contentious issue and was debated
until the last hour," said a "China 2030" participant, who added that
participants often differed on how much credit should be given to the state
for China's economic development and how big a role the government and party
should continue to play.
Even so, said individuals involved with the report, SASAC bitterly
criticized the proposal in meetings of the "China 2030" group and would
strive to block them from coming into being, out of concern it could lose
power. Indeed, many of the recommendations are considered so politically
fraught that the Chinese insisted that the report be labeled a "conference
edition"—meaning that it is subject to change after comments at the Beijing
conference where it will be presented Monday.
SASAC didn't immediately respond to a request to comment. | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 6 Mr. Liu, the DRC official, was among the top Chinese staffers who drafted
the current five-year plan and is considered close to China's current
leaders as well as Mr. Xi, the presumptive next head of China's government
and party. Mr. Liu, who meets regularly with U.S. officials, has argued
publicly that foreign pressure and ideas can help build momentum for change
in China.
"Liu decides the flow of information, gives policy makers recommendations
and organizes meeting agendas," said Cheng Li, a China scholar at the
Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
In a signal of the challenges now faced by Chinese businesses, a gauge of
nationwide manufacturing activity was slightly higher in February but
remained in contractionary territory for the fourth straight month. The
preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 49.7 in
February, compared with a final reading of 48.8 for January, HSBC Holdings
PLC said on Wednesday. A reading below 50 indicates contraction from the
previous month.
China now is vulnerable to a sharp slowdown, said Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank
China economist, because it relies too heavily on industries that copy
foreign technology and doesn't produce enough breakthroughs of its own, a
problem that limits the growth of many developing countries.
South Korea was able to keep growing rapidly after it hit a per capita
income level of $5,000—about where China is today—because it pushed
innovation. China lags behind South Korea badly in patents produced per
capita, he said, an important measure of innovation.
"China 2030" urges a big expansion of early-childhood education and
nutrition to make sure that poorer Chinese youngsters don't quickly fall
behind wealthier ones, said those involved with the report. While such
programs are commonplace in wealthier countries and Latin America, they pose
a particular challenge in China because of its system of revenue collection.
Chinese local governments often draw much of their revenue from the sale of
land, rather than from taxes. That has led to deep resentment among poorer
Chinese as village officials underpay for land on the outskirts of cities
and sell at steep profits to real-estate developers. The report urges that
Chinese social spending be funded more by dividends from state-owned firms
and by property, corporate and other taxes.
"We'll be recommending that all resources be put on budget," Mr. Zoellick
said in his Chicago talk, and "that public finance needs to be transparent [
and] accountable." | G***o
发帖数: 5158 | 7 尼玛国企私有化是不是每家被私有化的企业给全国14亿人人手一股？
released
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020477860457723890
: China Needs Deep Reform, Says Upcoming Report
: BEIJING—China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep
: reforms, according to a report by the World Bank and a Chinese government
: think tank, which urges Beijing to scale back its vast state-owned
: enterprises and make them operate more like commercial firms.
: The recommendation is contained in "China 2030," a report set to be released
: Monday, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and
: reviewing it.
: The report, which addresses some of China's most politically sensitive
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 8 都跟你们讲了无数遍了。改开30年，老百姓就算有损失，损失的不过是浮财。不把政府
和企完全脱离开，就不可能动老百姓的实产。
工资再低，你得保证老百姓有一定的收入。基本消费加储蓄，赚钱就有个头。得让老百
姓变成债务人，才能保证赚钱不封顶。
released
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020477860457723890
: China Needs Deep Reform, Says Upcoming Report
: BEIJING—China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep
: reforms, according to a report by the World Bank and a Chinese government
: think tank, which urges Beijing to scale back its vast state-owned
: enterprises and make them operate more like commercial firms.
: The recommendation is contained in "China 2030," a report set to be released
: Monday, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and
: reviewing it.
: The report, which addresses some of China's most politically sensitive
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 9 那还赚个P钱。
发行股票和债券。
谁想要谁买。
【在 G***o 的大作中提到】
: 尼玛国企私有化是不是每家被私有化的企业给全国14亿人人手一股？
:
: released
| G***o
发帖数: 5158 | 10 如果没有股份，P民们应该组织起来反抗护宪。尼玛全民所有又不是政府所有。
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: 那还赚个P钱。
: 发行股票和债券。
: 谁想要谁买。
| | | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 11 做白日梦呢？！
私有化过程，参见山东鲁能。。。
【在 G***o 的大作中提到】
: 尼玛国企私有化是不是每家被私有化的企业给全国14亿人人手一股？
:
: released
| s*******e
发帖数: 1544 | 12 国内各大网站上的对命脉国企私有化的质疑全被删了
对屁民好的政策要偷偷摸摸搞吗？ | G***o
发帖数: 5158 | 13 所以中国这个国家没什么希望。连做白日梦的人都没几个了。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 做白日梦呢？！
: 私有化过程，参见山东鲁能。。。
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 14 只听说过保路运动，老百姓怕政府发私产收归国有, 再给卖了。
至于卖国有企业，老百姓应该想怎么买才能赚。
【在 G***o 的大作中提到】
: 如果没有股份，P民们应该组织起来反抗护宪。尼玛全民所有又不是政府所有。
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 15 没看明白，你的观点是：私有化对屁民有利？
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: 都跟你们讲了无数遍了。改开30年，老百姓就算有损失，损失的不过是浮财。不把政府
: 和企完全脱离开，就不可能动老百姓的实产。
: 工资再低，你得保证老百姓有一定的收入。基本消费加储蓄，赚钱就有个头。得让老百
: 姓变成债务人，才能保证赚钱不封顶。
:
: released
| t****n
发帖数: 10724 | | j****w
发帖数: 3020 | 17 就是要把屁民变成彻底的无产阶级，屁民干活才更有激情。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 没看明白，你的观点是：私有化对屁民有利？
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 18 NO. 私有化对会赚钱的人有利。
产权不明，国企赚钱就只能靠垄断，发了工资奖金，交了税，剩下的钱名义上还是国家
的，比交税还惨，用的不对，你就双规了。私有化了，通过行会搞垄断，发了工资奖金
，交了税，剩下的钱就是自己的了。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 没看明白，你的观点是：私有化对屁民有利？
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 19 “会赚钱的人”是如何界定的？
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: NO. 私有化对会赚钱的人有利。
: 产权不明，国企赚钱就只能靠垄断，发了工资奖金，交了税，剩下的钱名义上还是国家
: 的，比交税还惨，用的不对，你就双规了。私有化了，通过行会搞垄断，发了工资奖金
: ，交了税，剩下的钱就是自己的了。
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 20 还是谁有权谁要？
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: 那还赚个P钱。
: 发行股票和债券。
: 谁想要谁买。
| | | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 21 就怕不给老百姓任何染指的机会。。。
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: 只听说过保路运动，老百姓怕政府发私产收归国有, 再给卖了。
: 至于卖国有企业，老百姓应该想怎么买才能赚。
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 22 不出一分钱，企业白给N多股份的人。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: “会赚钱的人”是如何界定的？
| a*******t
发帖数: 10093 | 23 操影帝先人板板
国内全都不让评论了
released
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020477860457723890
: China Needs Deep Reform, Says Upcoming Report
: BEIJING—China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep
: reforms, according to a report by the World Bank and a Chinese government
: think tank, which urges Beijing to scale back its vast state-owned
: enterprises and make them operate more like commercial firms.
: The recommendation is contained in "China 2030," a report set to be released
: Monday, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and
: reviewing it.
: The report, which addresses some of China's most politically sensitive
| w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 24 谁都可以要。
比如，温总理儿子NB，经营有方，给1百万股。老百姓愿意出血，10万块买1千股。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 还是谁有权谁要？
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 25 哦？我还以为屁民完全蒙在鼓里，摸不清状况呢。
其实，最后，清楚了反而更痛苦。
前一轮国企（非垄断）破改贱卖，屁民也就是下岗看MBO的份儿！
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: 国内各大网站上的对命脉国企私有化的质疑全被删了
: 对屁民好的政策要偷偷摸摸搞吗？
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 26 这话，不能明说。
【在 j****w 的大作中提到】
: 就是要把屁民变成彻底的无产阶级，屁民干活才更有激情。
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 27 噢！原来如此。:)
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: 谁都可以要。
: 比如，温总理儿子NB，经营有方，给1百万股。老百姓愿意出血，10万块买1千股。
| c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | |
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