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h***y
发帖数: 4936 | 1 新华网北京７月２０日电（记者林杉）英国《经济学人》杂志近日刊登题为《抨击中国
综合症》的文章，指出在美国总统大选前夕民主党和共和党都习惯性地批评中国，但这
种批评毫无道理，并且往往产生负面效果。而在当选后，总统们也会抛弃竞选时宣布的
对话强硬政策，这使得抨击中国变得毫无意义。文章主要内容如下：
众所周知，一个人只要获得了美国主要政党总统竞选人资格，他就一定想制定更加强硬
的对华政策。比尔·克林顿骂老布什“娇惯独裁者”；老布什的儿子在当选总统后又拿
同样的话来抨击克林顿。贝拉克·奥巴马在第一次竞选总统时说小布什的对华政策“一
团糟”。现在又轮到罗姆尼了：在二月份，他把奥巴马描述成“差不多在乞求北京”。
罗姆尼用他写的那本书《绝不道歉：伟大美国的案例》来描述最合适不过。他说如果当
选总统，他会毫不迟疑地把中国放到适当的位置。在就职的第一天，他就会宣布中国是
汇率操纵国，这一步骤将会导致对从中国进口的产品全面增加关税。更进一步，他说要
强迫中国按照国际贸易和投资规则行事：不允许再盗窃知识产权，不允许向国有企业给
予不公平的补贴，不允许制定掠夺性的价格。经济还不是他唯一关注的领域：他承诺要
更猛烈地抨击中国的人权现状，支持美军对中国军队影响扩大采取反制措施。
在大多数方面，罗姆尼抨击中国的言论看起来是有研究、有方法的。他希望富裕国家对
中国实施“知识产权制裁”，防止中国获得高级技术（比如制造客机），除非中国停止
剽窃外国知识。在“直面中国”这一标题下，罗姆尼的网站承诺将让美国政府停止从中
国采购，除非中国给予美国公司互惠政策。他还说，台湾应该允许购买任何它想购买的
武器。同时，他计算美国海军每年需要多建造６艘舰艇，来应对它面对的挑战，包括自
负的中国。
有人说罗姆尼正准备打一场贸易战（更不必说是传统贸易战了），但是他对此不屑一顾
。他说一场未经宣布的冲突正在进行，而且中国处在上风。他还说，如果美国对中国商
品施加惩罚性关税，中国不敢用同样的方法采取报复，因为中国在矛盾升级中受到的损
失更大。他提醒说，每年中国卖给美国的商品价值比美国卖给中国的商品价值多２７３
０亿美元。“如果你不勇敢地面对中国，你就会被中国碾过，”他说。
对此，我们只能耸耸肩。竞选者们在竞选旅行中会表达对中国的愤怒，但是在当选后，
他们的脾气就好多了。４年前奥巴马曾经做出的承诺和罗姆尼现在说的一样，就是给中
国贴上汇率操纵国的标签。在那之后，他每年有两次机会来这么做，但是都错过了。在
某种程度上，那是因为人民币在近些年已经升值，在全球贸易中的顺差也减少了。但主
要原因是，如果对首要贸易伙伴和美国公共债务的最大持有人挑起了贸易战，到最后人
们却指责你应该对经济后果负责，那样就不是什么好主意了。
如果前任社区组织者都不敢想中国摊牌，人们猜测，一个穿条纹西装的金融人士肯定也
不敢。罗姆尼有许多方法可以跳出他给自己挖的坑。他可以说，由于他向中国施加了压
力，中国已经做出了大幅让步，他提出的制裁措施也就没有必要了。或者他可以按他说
的去做，给中国贴上汇率操纵者的标签，同时确保法案经过的官僚程序不会最终导致实
际的报复行动。目前为止还没从北京方面看到警告迹象。即使是在罗姆尼调高反华言论
音量的时候，中国国家副主席习近平还是访问了华盛顿，并且用“青山遮不住，毕竟东
流去”来形容中美关系。
说话也会有后果
事实上，风险可能比上面说的大得多。就像美国一样，中国也面临领导层的交替；被贴
上操纵者的标签可能使中国冒险做出强硬反应。另外，罗姆尼的言辞也制造了一个趋势
，其他候选人在批评中国时都试图比别人说得更激烈。本月早些时候，美国政府就中国
征收汽车关税在世贸组织提起诉讼，总统的竞选班子自豪地称奥巴马提出的类似程序已
经两倍于他的前任。共和党立刻反驳说奥巴马只是在近期做出改变而已，而且他应该更
多地挑战中国。
确实，越来越少的共和党人让他们的自由贸易信仰轻易干涉总统。罗姆尼实际上是比较
温和的。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）去年考虑参加共和党提名选举时说“中国正
在强奸这个国家”。纽特·金里奇（Newt Gingrich）参加了竞选活动，他在与其他竞
选人辩论时提出“大幅提高中国欺骗时的痛苦程度”是非常重要的。另一名候选人米歇
勒·巴克曼（Michele Bachmann）嘲弄说中国购买美国财政部债券给“谁是你爸爸”这
句话添加了全新的含义。
这些言论造成的麻烦是，中国领导人越发感觉到美国试图破坏中国的“和平崛起”。美
国两党都乐于把中国描述成全球化怪物的这一事实造成了一致敌对的假象。反过来，这
也削弱了美国传递的中国过度妄想和戒备的信息，同时使希望对商业结果表达乐观观点
美国选民无法表达意见。 | h***y
发帖数: 4936 | 2 英文原文链接 http://www.economist.com/node/21558581
文章没什么新意，评论倒是更有意思
A. Andros Jul 12th 2012 17:27 GMT
What a difference a generation makes! Now getting on in years, it has taken
me a while to adjust from bashing Japan to loathing China. Thirty years ago
we were indignant at the Japanese for selling us quality automobiles and
electronics at very competetive prices. Their refusal to reciprocate by
buying gas-guzzling behemoths that broke down on the showroom floor was seen
as a refusal to play fair. And, there was some truth in the accusation --
if WE had to suffer from that junk, what was so special about them?
In the early 1980s some Congressmen parked a Japanese car in front of the
Capitol and demolished it with sledge-hammers to show their contempt for
well-crafted engineering. The president of the U.S.then pressured the
Japanese into self-imposed export quotas. American benefitted from this as
the price of quality automobiles rose, unions extorted ruinous wage
increases and the Big Three pushed -- it usually was hard to start -- the
latest version of the Belchfire V-8 out factory doors.
We all, I fear, grow less flexible as we age. I admit it -- I was
comfortable feeling ill-used by the Japanese and it was with distinctly
mixed feelings that my wife and I drove our utterly reliable Suburu and
Toyota. Watching our Toshiba wide-screen TV was never as pleasant as we
hoped because we knew there was something insidious about it. There was
always a pleasant soupcon of resentment when I fired up our Sony DVD player
and much pleasant brooding usually ensued.
You cannot really blame my wife and I for being caught on the short-hop by
this hate-China campaign. We own a lot of made-in-China goods and I am
always pleasantly surprised at how inexpensive these are. I guess they are
cheaper because the Chinese pay their laborers less than we pay ours in
America but I don't see why that is bad for my family. I suppose I benefit
from high union wages and work rules -- I know our public school teachers do
-- but the benefit is so subtle my bifocaled vision can hardly detect it!
Earlier in life I loathed Russia. Then, I was told to loath Japan and did as
I was told. Now, during a time of life when I hoped for some peace, I am
obliged to feel threatened by China. This is an issue I wish the AARP would
take up -- it really IS hard on we Seniors!
At some time in my past I read that free international trade generally
promotes efficient specialization in the manufacture of products. I was also
given to understand that integration of the world economy promoted
stability. Well . . . I used to buy 8-track tapes too so I guess I am just
behind the curve.
Perhaps a presidential candidate will someday campaign that if Americans
want a dandy life style they have to earn it by doing quality work at
reasonable costs. Some of our businessmen seem to have taken that lesson on
board and, thus, certain segments of the economy -- e.g. Silicon Valley --
are doing mighty well.
In the meantime, though, I guess I'll just have to start hating China. But,
I'm not going to be fooled yet again -- I've already started to practice
hating Mexico, "just in case!"
http://www.economist.com/comment/1519637#comment-1519637 | w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | |
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