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发帖数: 6858 | 1 布雷默：崛起的中国制造冲突 zt(英文）
来源: 笑看阿Q找台阶 于 2013-01-23 05:59:22[档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [
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Bremmer: Rise of China creating conflict
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/23/business/davos-bremmer-china/
Davos, Switzerland (CNN) -- In 2013, the greatest risk of conflict doesn't
lie in the halls of the U.S. Congress, on the battlefield in Syria nor the
rising rhetoric between Iran and the international community, according to
Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group.
"China-Japan is by far the most important and consequential geopolitical
conflict on our screen for the entire year of 2013," Bremmer told CNN's John
Defterios at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
A territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea boiled over into
often violent anti-Japanese demonstration in China last September has led to
tensions between the world's second and third largest economies. Last week,
new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returned from a trip to Southeast
Asia to shore up support of nations also at odds with China over disputed
land claims in the South China Sea.
"The Chinese don't feel like they need the Japanese in the way they used to
-- they don't need the technology, they don't need the investment dollars;
and furthermore unlike places like Vietnam and the Philippines where the
Chinese have a large Diaspora population that really controls the local
business so over time the Chinese feel they win no matter what; in Japan ...
there's no influence there," Bremmer said.
WEF founder upbeat on economic outlook
Caution and concern on display at Davos
Davos 2013: New year, same old problems?
After opening to economic reforms in 1979, the economy of the world's most
populated country sprinted ahead at an average of 10% growth each year,
overtaking Japan as the world's second largest economy in late 2010. While
China is still in many ways a developing nation -- it's GDP per capita was
94th in the world in 2011 -- most economists expect it will jump ahead of
the U.S. as the world's largest economy by 2030.
The December report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, "Global
Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," forecast that U.S. economic and
international influence will decline in the next two decades as a shift of
global power moves from the West to the East -- with the rise of China as
one of the greatest forces
Quest: U.S. economy to dominate Davos 2013
"China is slated to pass the threshold of US$15,000 per capita purchasing
power parity (PPP) in the next five years or so—a level that is often a
trigger for democratization,"the report notes. "Chinese `soft' power could
be dramatically boosted, setting off a wave of democratic movements.
Alternatively, many experts believe a democratic China could also become
more nationalistic. An economically collapsed China would trigger political
unrest and shock the global economy."
Bremmer thinks the odds of that are long, but a China moving on its current
path will still be a primary player of world events in the next two decades.
Europe's decade: A tale of boom and bust
"Of course the rise of China has enormous implications for both economic
conflict and political conflict precisely because this is a poor country, it
's an authoritarian country, it's a state capitalist country -- and by the
time China becomes the world's largest economy, surpassing the United States
, those fundamental qualities of China will not particularly change," he
said.
"Here you have a situation for many decades where Americans felt that China'
s rise was in their interest -- already Japan understands that China's rise
is not in its interest, it's a bad thing," Bremmer said. "Increasingly the U
.S. is very, very conflicted." |
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