l********u
发帖数: 910 | 1 Internet Is Global 911 For Dying Woman
September 03, 1995|By Anita Srikameswaran, Tribune Staff Writer.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-09-03/news/9509030264_1
On April 10, two college students in Beijing transmitted a desperate SOS
across the Internet and opened a new dimension in the practice of medicine:
"Hi. This is Peking University in China . . . A young, 21-year-old student
has become very sick and is dying . . . Doctors at the best hospitals in
Beijing cannot cure her . . . So now we are asking the world-can somebody
help us?"
Somebody could.
The students, who described details of their friend's baffling symptoms,
soon were flooded with 2,000 e-mail replies from physicians and researchers
in 18 countries.
Less than three weeks after the computerized message-in-a-bottle was pitched
into electronic waves, a diagnosis was made and confirmed: Lingling Zhu had
been poisoned by a heavy metal called thallium.
At a time when critics are bemoaning the proliferation of useless
information and chatter in cyberspace, Zhu's case offers hope that the
Internet's technology can harness worldwide medical resources to save more
lives.
"Her legacy will be tremendous," said Dr. Rich Hamilton of the New York
Poison Center, which already is planning its own web-page on the Internet to
provide assistance to anyone who asks for it.
While issues about patient confidentiality, physician payment, and the
ability to limit on-line access to health professionals have yet to be
resolved, the possibility of rapidly transmitting information to a global
audience for problem-solving is tantalizing.
"Zhu's case has triggered something," said Xin Li, a graduate student in
biomedical physics at UCLA. Li acted as go-between for American doctors and
the parents of the patient, navigating a sea of e-mail messages. "It will
change the way medicine is practiced."
A chemistry student at Peking University, Zhu was smart, successful and well
-liked. In December of 1994, she began suffering from stomach pains and
vomiting. Her hair began to fall out, leaving her bald within weeks.
Doctors had no answers for her, but a month later-again inexplicably-her
hair grew back, and she recovered.
"After the second semester of school had started, on March 7, she got sick
for the second time," said Dr. Daniel Valentino, Li's supervisor at the
Medical Imaging Division of UCLA. "She was admitted into the Peking
University Medical Center and hasn't left since."
Once more, her hair fell out. She suffered dizziness and blurred vision,
along with pain in her hands and feet. Soon, the pain became a paralysis,
spreading up her body to her diaphragm, preventing her from breathing on her
own. She slipped into a coma on March 15.
Soon after, her friends Zhicheng Bei and Quanqing Cai visited. Aghast at her
condition, they turned to the Internet, an untried tool for emergency
medical aid. Their electronic broadcast caught the attention of Li who,
interested in the technology's potential for solving such unusual medical
problems, assumed the role of detective.
Sifting through nearly half of the 2,000 responses, he found nearly 100
physicians and chemists who suggested thallium toxicity. He quickly
transmitted the news to Zhu's friends, who in turn informed the Beijing
doctors and the young woman's parents.
Zhu's parents insisted that the suggestion of thallium poisoning be taken
seriously, bringing in specialists to test for the heavy metal. Urine, blood
, spinal fluid, hair and nail samples were studied, and on April 28, the
cause of her coma became clear.
"I got a call at 6 a.m. from Bei," said Li. "It was definitely thallium
poisoning." She had nearly 100 times the normal amount of thallium in her
blood, and 1,000 times more in her nails, he said.
"The hair loss was the big clue," said Hamilton of the New York City Poison
Center, who had seen the message on the Internet. "Of all the possible heavy
metal poisonings, thallium is distinctive because of that."
Hamilton used e-mail to advise Li, who passed along the information to
doctors in Beijing. "It's not surprising the doctors there didn't think of
thallium toxicity," Hamilton said, "there have only been sporadic reports of
it."
The case had a more sinister side. "Ninety percent of cases of thallium
poisoning are intentional," said Li.
Thallium's popularity as a poison has been noted by the London-based
Campaign for a Free Iraq, which in 1992 said the metal was often used by
Iraqi security forces to slowly kill Saddam Hussein's opponents.
No source, or suspect, has yet been found for Zhu's poisoning, and her
friends can suggest no obvious motive for foul play.
After making the diagnosis, the next step was to find a treatment.
All the toxicologists Li consulted-from Los Angeles to Colorado to New York-
agreed: Zhu must be given a dye called Prussian blue, commonly found in
chemistry labs.
Thallium molecules are trapped in the dye, and when Prussian blue is
excreted from the body in urine and feces, so is the thallium. Dialysis
would help the process along, cleaning the blood of the heavy metal.
By May 3, Prussian blue was being fed to Zhu through a tube in her nose. The
thallium began to leave her body, along with the brilliant blue dye. At one
point, even her perspiration was blue. As her thallium levels dropped, she
began to get better.
"On May 30, she showed the first sign of some neurological recovery," Li
said. "Her parents stood close to her bed, and her blood pressure and pulse
went up. They went down again when her parents left. She was excited."
Zhu remained in the intensive care unit until June 8, when she was moved to
a regular ward because she finally could breathe without the help of
machines. She has not yet regained consciousness.
Beijing doctors still are using Prussian blue to clear the last of the
thallium out of her system, but experts don't hold out much hope that she
will recover completely.
"There are reports of patients getting better after an acute poisoning,"
Hamilton noted. "Unfortunately, she had toxic levels for half a year." He
said it is not clear how thallium inflicts damage to the nervous system.
While health professionals hope to develop the Internet to respond to more
cases, Li and Valentino noted that a specialized computer network of medical
knowledge already exists on the Internet. UCLA has a system in place to
transmit radiology images and reports to centers in Florida.
"A `med-web' offers a mechanism for communicating this sort of mysterious
case to people who have the sub-specialized expertise to recognize it,"
Valentino said.
Appropriately, e-mail was the medium Zhu's mother used to send a letter
thanking those who helped her daughter.
"Now I decide, the moment my daughter gets awake, the first thing I'll tell
her at once will be how . . . many friends from all over the world, though
unacquainted ever before, have been helping her." | t****v
发帖数: 9235 | | d******r
发帖数: 16947 | 3 肘子可以去死了如果还有脸的话
【在 l********u 的大作中提到】
: Internet Is Global 911 For Dying Woman
: September 03, 1995|By Anita Srikameswaran, Tribune Staff Writer.
: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-09-03/news/9509030264_1
: On April 10, two college students in Beijing transmitted a desperate SOS
: across the Internet and opened a new dimension in the practice of medicine:
: "Hi. This is Peking University in China . . . A young, 21-year-old student
: has become very sick and is dying . . . Doctors at the best hospitals in
: Beijing cannot cure her . . . So now we are asking the world-can somebody
: help us?"
: Somebody could.
| w****y
发帖数: 2952 | 4 肘子说84，贝说有900，为什么肘子要去死。
【在 d******r 的大作中提到】
: 肘子可以去死了如果还有脸的话
| t****v
发帖数: 9235 | 5 1500，2000，3000， 30%，都是贝大嘴说的
这个9月采访，估计也是贝大嘴信口雌黄
这家伙撒谎成瘾 | g***j
发帖数: 40861 | | p******g
发帖数: 498 | | s*******l
发帖数: 8210 | 8 这个帖子更加证实了方舟子的疑问和为其提供了弹药。 什么30%的人说是铊中毒？ 这
个新闻报道和另外一个学术文章明明白白的说了，有80多个医生学者找就说了应当是铊
中毒。 哪里犯得着贝志诚去统计一大堆所谓的email并从中研究出了是铊中毒？
这脸打得让我都不知道咋样说了。 另外，你好象不懂英语，读不懂啥这里面说的啥意
思？ 要不，这样的新闻报道你也敢贴？
笑死我了！
【在 l********u 的大作中提到】
: Internet Is Global 911 For Dying Woman
: September 03, 1995|By Anita Srikameswaran, Tribune Staff Writer.
: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-09-03/news/9509030264_1
: On April 10, two college students in Beijing transmitted a desperate SOS
: across the Internet and opened a new dimension in the practice of medicine:
: "Hi. This is Peking University in China . . . A young, 21-year-old student
: has become very sick and is dying . . . Doctors at the best hospitals in
: Beijing cannot cure her . . . So now we are asking the world-can somebody
: help us?"
: Somebody could.
| n*****8
发帖数: 19630 | 9 铊暴民们可以无地自容了。
:)
【在 d******r 的大作中提到】
: 肘子可以去死了如果还有脸的话
| T****r
发帖数: 22092 | 10 这个报道里边说，阅读那些邮件以及沟通医院的功劳是Li的。
【在 p******g 的大作中提到】
: 这个报道很有料
| | | l***y
发帖数: 4671 | 11 ft 啊，这是怎么回事？到底是谁筛选 email 并得出铊中毒的建议的？怎么又成了美国
的 Xin Li 了？
这个真值得各方对质一下了。
【在 l********u 的大作中提到】
: Internet Is Global 911 For Dying Woman
: September 03, 1995|By Anita Srikameswaran, Tribune Staff Writer.
: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-09-03/news/9509030264_1
: On April 10, two college students in Beijing transmitted a desperate SOS
: across the Internet and opened a new dimension in the practice of medicine:
: "Hi. This is Peking University in China . . . A young, 21-year-old student
: has become very sick and is dying . . . Doctors at the best hospitals in
: Beijing cannot cure her . . . So now we are asking the world-can somebody
: help us?"
: Somebody could.
| n*****b
发帖数: 2235 | 12 李新和蔡全清为什么保持沉默这么多年
有什么隐情吗
【在 l***y 的大作中提到】
: ft 啊，这是怎么回事？到底是谁筛选 email 并得出铊中毒的建议的？怎么又成了美国
: 的 Xin Li 了？
: 这个真值得各方对质一下了。
| l***y
发帖数: 4671 | 13 现在看来，贝的主要贡献在组织协调，而不是具体工作上。信是用蔡的邮箱收发的。李
收集整理并 screening 回复，注意到铊中毒，并且的整理铊中毒相关的 email 并发给
蔡。国内参与翻译李总结的信件的是北大和清华的学生，包括孙维等人。
贝作为有头有尾组织整个活动的 team leader，贡献是最大的，这个貌似没有问题。
不过他倒是颇有些老印的风范：工作主要是大家做的，而外人看上去，觉得大部分工作
都是他一个人做的。怪不得做生意比较成功啊。
【在 n*****b 的大作中提到】
: 李新和蔡全清为什么保持沉默这么多年
: 有什么隐情吗
| r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | | s****e
发帖数: 392 | 15 路人都看不下去了。 孙党们都不读完全文吗？收到约2000封回复，看了不到一半就有
近100回复建议thallium中毒。从那里能得到比例是 100／2000？
＂Sifting through nearly half of the 2,000 responses, he found nearly 100
physicians and chemists who suggested thallium toxicity." | w*********e
发帖数: 6093 | 16 靠，高考语文英语拿几分呀。
2000个responses 的一半中有100个人认为是铊。
主语宾语会认么？
【在 s****e 的大作中提到】
: 路人都看不下去了。 孙党们都不读完全文吗？收到约2000封回复，看了不到一半就有
: 近100回复建议thallium中毒。从那里能得到比例是 100／2000？
: ＂Sifting through nearly half of the 2,000 responses, he found nearly 100
: physicians and chemists who suggested thallium toxicity."
| t********a
发帖数: 2402 | 17 哈，估计没参加过，哈哈. ，😄
【在 w*********e 的大作中提到】
: 靠，高考语文英语拿几分呀。
: 2000个responses 的一半中有100个人认为是铊。
: 主语宾语会认么？
| s*********2
发帖数: 26 | 18 文章中说 Sifting through nearly half of the 2,000 responses ，就是说翻阅都近
一半（2000中的），快近100名医生和化学家认为是铊中毒。 也不是说就100份回信，
估计有人是回了多次的。换据话说在这些回复中认为铊中毒的可能性是远远高于其他的
猜测。贝在救朱还是起了决定性作用的。 | a****c
发帖数: 3827 | 19 你的意思是，看完了2000封信，然后整出其中的一半，在这一半中100人认为是铊？会
有人这么说话吗？我中英文都不太行，还是觉得看了一半的回信，其中100多人认为是
铊。
【在 w*********e 的大作中提到】
: 靠，高考语文英语拿几分呀。
: 2000个responses 的一半中有100个人认为是铊。
: 主语宾语会认么？
| w****y
发帖数: 2501 | 20 就算是100人。2000回信的30%是600封，也就是说这100人平均每人写了6封信！
100人平均6封信是非常大的量！只有有来有往的交流，才有可能。是这些人相互交流么
？还是贝志成跟他们写信交流？医生和化学家好像不是很忙的样子。
【在 s*********2 的大作中提到】
: 文章中说 Sifting through nearly half of the 2,000 responses ，就是说翻阅都近
: 一半（2000中的），快近100名医生和化学家认为是铊中毒。 也不是说就100份回信，
: 估计有人是回了多次的。换据话说在这些回复中认为铊中毒的可能性是远远高于其他的
: 猜测。贝在救朱还是起了决定性作用的。
| | | r***n
发帖数: 553 | 21 很正常
不用纠缠这些，他们说出这些ratio的时候
不一定很准确。也不重要。
我看贝制成、Xin Li、96-98的几篇有关的学术论文、
芝加哥论坛报、其它美国媒体当时的报道
数据都有出入
统计口径不一样
很正常
【在 w****y 的大作中提到】
: 就算是100人。2000回信的30%是600封，也就是说这100人平均每人写了6封信！
: 100人平均6封信是非常大的量！只有有来有往的交流，才有可能。是这些人相互交流么
: ？还是贝志成跟他们写信交流？医生和化学家好像不是很忙的样子。
| a****c
发帖数: 3827 | 22 都不看原文吗，2000的一半有100多人认为是铊，30%是300封信。而且也没说分母是怎
么认定的，非相关的估计就不计入分母了。
【在 w****y 的大作中提到】
: 就算是100人。2000回信的30%是600封，也就是说这100人平均每人写了6封信！
: 100人平均6封信是非常大的量！只有有来有往的交流，才有可能。是这些人相互交流么
: ？还是贝志成跟他们写信交流？医生和化学家好像不是很忙的样子。
| m********5
发帖数: 17667 | 23 哈哈, 是的, 芝加哥论坛报、其它美国媒体当时的报道, 方钩子的说法, 都有较大出入
, 但是普遍在 5%~10%, 80~100篇, 是惊人相似
贝骗子一出来就是30%, 这个数据点标出来, 让其他的数据点的std几乎忽略不计, 你们
这写倒孙人血馒头爱好者的逻辑果然不一般
【在 r***n 的大作中提到】
: 很正常
: 不用纠缠这些，他们说出这些ratio的时候
: 不一定很准确。也不重要。
: 我看贝制成、Xin Li、96-98的几篇有关的学术论文、
: 芝加哥论坛报、其它美国媒体当时的报道
: 数据都有出入
: 统计口径不一样
: 很正常
| m********5
发帖数: 17667 | 24 我来帮贝党想个理由:
贝骗子之所以发现是铊中毒, 那是因为贝骗子统计了1000人(平均每人2封email)的病因
猜测
病因猜测分布很广, 虽然只有5-10%的人建议是铊中毒
但是其余所有病因猜想都远低于5-10%, 也就是说1000人中包含了大约90-100种建议,除
了铊中毒有不到100人之外, 其余九十多种建议, 每种只有不到10个人支持
【在 w****y 的大作中提到】
: 就算是100人。2000回信的30%是600封，也就是说这100人平均每人写了6封信！
: 100人平均6封信是非常大的量！只有有来有往的交流，才有可能。是这些人相互交流么
: ？还是贝志成跟他们写信交流？医生和化学家好像不是很忙的样子。
| r***n
发帖数: 553 | 25 84人（人名如后，不是84封）
麻烦用点脑力，然后再发言
================================
10-Apr
1 Steve Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH
the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences
11-Apr
2 Andi/Cleveland State Univ. Ohio
3 Frank Bia, MD, MPH, Professor of Medicine, Yale University
4 Dr. Neil Kay
5 John M. Friedberg, M.D., Neurologist, Berkeley, CA 94705
via Robert A. Fink, M. D., F.A.C.S., Neurological Surgery
6 Dr. Martin Wolfe, Tropical Medicine Consultant.
via John Aldis, M.D, MPH, FACS, U.S. State of Department
(Dr. Aldis, M.D., AAFP, MPH & Tropical Medicine, U.S. State
Department, was the doctor for U.S. Embassy to China 1989-93.
He knew many doctors personally at PUMC and he actually saw
Zhu Lingling at PUMC in March. He has been highly involved
in the case and coordinated some of the international efforts.)
7 Prof. Leslie H Bernstein
via Carole Shmurak
8 Jacquie Heller
13-Apr
9 Prof. Dugald Gardner, senior reader in Pathology,
Edinburgh Univ. Medical School via Angus Whyte,
Information science Officer,
Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh
10 Bruce Gellin MD, National Institute of Allergy & Infectious
Diseases, National Institutes of Health
11 Sarah and David Kaufman, New Rochelle, New York, USA
14-Apr
12 Anita Diaz, Director, UCSC - Student Health Center,
Santa Cruz, CA
13 uli diekmann, neurologist, nds.landeskrankenhaus d-31515
wunstorf, Germany
15-Apr
14 Steven Ashwal, M.D. David Christensen, M.D.
15 Steven Curry, M.D. Department of Medical Toxicology
Good Samaritan Regional Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ
16 David Crippen, MD, FCCM, Director, Surgical Critical Care
Dept of Critical Care Medicine, St. Francis Medical Center
Pittsburgh, Pa
17 via Penelope Sanderson, Ph.D.,
Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL
16-Apr
18 Dr.Sergio Valdes, Director Center for The Critically Ill
Clinica Las Condes, Santiago Chile.
19 V. Nigrovic MD
20 TODD DORMAN
17-Apr
21 Dr Tim Reynolds, Consultant Chemical Pathologist, Burton Hospital
22 Dr. Wilder, C.Paquette
via GRATT, CHERYL
18-Apr
23 Thomas F. Downham II, MD Henry Ford Hospital Detroit, MI
24 4/19/2013 a physicianat CA
via Deborah Bond, RN
21-Apr
25 Dr.Rose Miketta, MD, Searl Pharmaceutical Company
via Dr. John W. Aldis
26 Daniel S. Sax, M.D. Prof. of Neurology, Boston Univ.
School of Medicine, Brookline, MA
via Jim Millward
27 Rudy Richardson, ScD, Prof. and Director of Toxicology
The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
28 J. Scott Kriegshauser, M.D. & Richard Caselli, M.D.
Mayo Clinic Scottsdale, Arizona, USA
29 Bill McConnell, Medical Technologist, Biochemistry Department
Royal Perth Hospital in Perth, Western Australia
30 Amy Forsgren, Polymer Science Department, Ford Research Laboratories
Ford Motor Company
22-Apr
31 Dr.Vasconcelos , veternarian, Ohio State University, via zheng liu
32 Dr.Jonas Blomberg, MD, PhD, Secion of Virology of Dept. of Medical
Microbiology at Lund, Sweden
33 Jonas Blomberg, M.D., Ph.D. Dept. Medical Microbiology
division Virology, University of Lund, Sweden
34 J. Yuan MD
35 Richard Haynes via h**[email protected]
36 Bart L. Clarke, M.D. Assis. Prof. of Medicine, Section of
Endocrinology, University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, IL
37 Robert Rust, Director of Child Neurology, University of Wisconsin
School of Medicine, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
38 Glenn Fletcher, Research Assistant (Toxicology), McMaster University
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
39 Larry Chow
40 Lee Suo Yi, Medical Student, The Medical College of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19129
23-Apr
41 Dee U. Silverthorn, Ph.D. Department of Zoology, University of Texas
42 Wojciech R. Rypniewski, Hamburg, Germany
43 Carolyn Schanen, Standford University
By this date Bei had received about 600 e-mail replies from more
than 400 accounts in 16 countries or regions. 70% from doctors,
15% from Chinese students abroad and 15% from the others.
24-Apr
44 Ron Holt, M.D. Univ. of Wisconsin - Medical school
via Bennett Vogelman, M.D., U.W. Hospital, Madison, WI
45 Cornelius Poppe, DVM PhD via Jack Woodall
25-Apr
46 Stephen Stray
47 Steve Rothman
48 Yogi Shan
49 Gregory V. Nikiforovich
50 Teepu Siddique, M.D., Prof. of neurology & Cell and Molecular
Biology, Vice-Chairman Dept of neurology
51 Dr Zhang / Dr Sharma, United Kindom
52 Robert Sufit, M.D. Northwestern Univ. Medical School
53 James T. Byrd, Ph.D.
54 Kirk Jones, M.D., Resident in Pathology,
Univ. of California, San Francisco.
55 Prof. Vladimir ZAITSEV, Texas A&M University, Kiev University
56 Phillip Nieburg, Atlanta, Georgia
57 Johan.Giesecke, Acting State Epidemiologist, Dept. of Epidemiology
Swedish Institute of Infectious Disease Control, Stockholm
58 Jack M. Rozental, MD. Asso. Prof. Department of Neurology
Northwestern Univ. Medical School
59 Sha Chang
60 Bruce Freeman, chemist
61 James Garbern, Neurologist, University of Pennsylvania
62 Prokf. K.T.Douglas, United Kindom
via Chen-Hsi, Chou
63 Jean-Francois Vaillancourt, REMT-P Medical Consultants
64 R.N.Davidson
65 Dr. Helmut Sell, Regional Adviser on Health & Behaviour,
WHO/SEARO, New Delhi. India
66 Mikael Gennser, MD, PhD, Senior researcher, Division of Naval
Medicine, National Defence Research Establishment, Sweden
67 Metta Murdaya, Berkeley, CA
68 Scott F. Long, Ph.D. Asst. Prof. of Pharmacology & Toxicology
School of Pharmacy, Duquesne University, Pittsburgh Pennsylvania
69 Mary Kay Floeter MD PhD, EMG lab, NINDS, NIH, BETHESDA MD
via Mary Jane Heussner
70 Professor D.J. Evans, United Kindom
luca turin, United Kindom, anatomy dept, UCL.
via Walter Stewart, NIH
26-Apr
71 Stan Sciortino, Epidemiology PhD student,
University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
72 J. Richard Raringer, M.D. Prof. & Chairman, Department of Neurology
University of Utah
via Yiyou Chen
73 S.M.Loureiro, Laboratoire de Cristallographie-CNRS-UJF, France
via Paulo Andre, MIT
74 Vivian E. Shih, MD, Massachusetts General Hospital
Amino Acid Disorder Laboratory, Boston, MA, USA
75 Matthew Zack, CDC
76 Tom Ferguson, M.D., Ph.D. , University of California, Davis
via C.X.Gao
77 Julie Riess, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY
78 S**[email protected]
via j****[email protected]
79 Dr. Yunlong Pu, Ph.D. of chemistry, Faculty of medicine
Univ. of Alberta, Canada 771
80 Dr Howard Homle
via Stephen C. Beuttel, MD, FACP
81 Dr.Deepak Bhatnagar, United Kindom
via Association of Thai Students in Science and Technology
82 Dr. David Bullimore, Senior Lecturer in Medicine at
St James's Hospital, England
via Dr. David Nelson, Canada
4/27/1995
83 Dr. Larry Line
84 Dr. Kangarloo at Dept. of Radiology at UCLA suggested that
heavy ion-poisoning should have radiographic findings on
X-ray films of bones.
【在 m********5 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈, 是的, 芝加哥论坛报、其它美国媒体当时的报道, 方钩子的说法, 都有较大出入
: , 但是普遍在 5%~10%, 80~100篇, 是惊人相似
: 贝骗子一出来就是30%, 这个数据点标出来, 让其他的数据点的std几乎忽略不计, 你们
: 这写倒孙人血馒头爱好者的逻辑果然不一般
| x***s
发帖数: 851 | 26 到底是李还是贝？谁筛选的内容？
［在 Teller (yy) 的大作中提到：］
:这个报道里边说，阅读那些邮件以及沟通医院的功劳是Li的。
[发自未名空间iPhone版] | l********u
发帖数: 910 | 27 此84人是李的网页上的
较大可能是李整理的
但不排除贝和蔡有自己的分析
到底是李还是贝？谁筛选的内容？
【在 x***s 的大作中提到】
: 到底是李还是贝？谁筛选的内容？
: ［在 Teller (yy) 的大作中提到：］
: :这个报道里边说，阅读那些邮件以及沟通医院的功劳是Li的。
: [发自未名空间iPhone版]
| D******l
发帖数: 832 | 28 （1）从li说明来看，贝说的3000封回信还是可能的
（2）铊中毒li明显从回信中就可以看出来了，不是贝伪造3000回信然后自编自演
（3）唯一可以攻击贝的可能就是30%这个数字了，这有可能贝为了说铊中毒可能性高说
给当时协和医生听有夸大。当时求救这种事紧急统计数据不可能象wsn在实验室写论文
那样精确，是否还得加个error bar 还要分析系统误差，平时生活中大家随口说的百分
数，我想大部分也都是个约数。然后统计的口径也不一样，每个人回信说铊中毒的，如
果热心或有新想法的话都会有follow up 的回文，热心的一来一回就好几封了。
（4）这个报道侧面印证贝基本靠谱，方可以去死了。 | n*****8
发帖数: 19630 | 29 30%这个数字是关键。如果贝说超过50%， 这个牛吹得太大。小于10%又没有说服力，大
夫可能会忽略。因此编了一个30%。 这个大家都同意了吧。
问题是如果回信只有2%的说是铊，他为何这么肯定是铊？而且4月28号已经知道医生确
诊了，还在5.1前去清华找翻译？
:)
【在 D******l 的大作中提到】
: （1）从li说明来看，贝说的3000封回信还是可能的
: （2）铊中毒li明显从回信中就可以看出来了，不是贝伪造3000回信然后自编自演
: （3）唯一可以攻击贝的可能就是30%这个数字了，这有可能贝为了说铊中毒可能性高说
: 给当时协和医生听有夸大。当时求救这种事紧急统计数据不可能象wsn在实验室写论文
: 那样精确，是否还得加个error bar 还要分析系统误差，平时生活中大家随口说的百分
: 数，我想大部分也都是个约数。然后统计的口径也不一样，每个人回信说铊中毒的，如
: 果热心或有新想法的话都会有follow up 的回文，热心的一来一回就好几封了。
: （4）这个报道侧面印证贝基本靠谱，方可以去死了。
| D******l
发帖数: 832 | 30 你文科的吧，很多实际数据分布上2%是peak值也是正常的
意识就是剩下信都是垃圾，这能明白点了么？
【在 n*****8 的大作中提到】
: 30%这个数字是关键。如果贝说超过50%， 这个牛吹得太大。小于10%又没有说服力，大
: 夫可能会忽略。因此编了一个30%。 这个大家都同意了吧。
: 问题是如果回信只有2%的说是铊，他为何这么肯定是铊？而且4月28号已经知道医生确
: 诊了，还在5.1前去清华找翻译？
: :)
| | | n*****8
发帖数: 19630 | 31 你是脑残生。
读一下美国医生的信，他1995年写的关于这次中毒事件，说开始大多数医生建议是重金
属中毒，建议协和查重金属。
:)
【在 D******l 的大作中提到】
: 你文科的吧，很多实际数据分布上2%是peak值也是正常的
: 意识就是剩下信都是垃圾，这能明白点了么？
| l********u
发帖数: 910 | 32 有病、没脑、低能、缺德
30%这个数字是关键。如果贝说超过50%， 这个牛吹得太大。小于10%又没有说服力，大
夫可能会忽略。因此编了一个30%。 这个大家都同意了吧。问题是如果回信只有2%的说
是铊，他........
【在 n*****8 的大作中提到】
: 30%这个数字是关键。如果贝说超过50%， 这个牛吹得太大。小于10%又没有说服力，大
: 夫可能会忽略。因此编了一个30%。 这个大家都同意了吧。
: 问题是如果回信只有2%的说是铊，他为何这么肯定是铊？而且4月28号已经知道医生确
: 诊了，还在5.1前去清华找翻译？
: :)
| n*****8
发帖数: 19630 | 33 你这四个词，都是你的真实写照啊。
:)
【在 l********u 的大作中提到】
: 有病、没脑、低能、缺德
:
: 30%这个数字是关键。如果贝说超过50%， 这个牛吹得太大。小于10%又没有说服力，大
: 夫可能会忽略。因此编了一个30%。 这个大家都同意了吧。问题是如果回信只有2%的说
: 是铊，他........
| l********u
发帖数: 910 | 34 说的你这蠢货
你这四个词，都是你的真实写照啊。 :)
【在 n*****8 的大作中提到】
: 你这四个词，都是你的真实写照啊。
: :)
| n*****8
发帖数: 19630 | 35 你骂街说明你输了。“蠢货”二字留着自己用吧。
:)
【在 l********u 的大作中提到】
: 说的你这蠢货
:
: 你这四个词，都是你的真实写照啊。 :)
| n*****b
发帖数: 2235 | 36 我也觉得是
就算是只有那84人提出
每人来往一两封 也差不多了
不必纠缠细节
我唯一的疑问是作为外行
应该从信里挑出两三个可能的病因
再交给医生定夺
【在 r***n 的大作中提到】
: 很正常
: 不用纠缠这些，他们说出这些ratio的时候
: 不一定很准确。也不重要。
: 我看贝制成、Xin Li、96-98的几篇有关的学术论文、
: 芝加哥论坛报、其它美国媒体当时的报道
: 数据都有出入
: 统计口径不一样
: 很正常
| n*****b
发帖数: 2235 | 37 30%的原始出处在哪里？还有没有链接什么的
【在 m********5 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈, 是的, 芝加哥论坛报、其它美国媒体当时的报道, 方钩子的说法, 都有较大出入
: , 但是普遍在 5%~10%, 80~100篇, 是惊人相似
: 贝骗子一出来就是30%, 这个数据点标出来, 让其他的数据点的std几乎忽略不计, 你们
: 这写倒孙人血馒头爱好者的逻辑果然不一般
| S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | | s*********2
发帖数: 26 | 39 你读不懂原文吗？文章是说翻阅到2000回复近一半的(也就是快1000)，有近100名医生
和化学家认为是铊中毒.至于这近100名医生和化学家，有多少份回复，文章没有提及。
重要的一点是在这近一半的回复中，铊中毒的可能性是远大与其他物质的。至于是不是
exactly 30% 在判断是不是铊中毒上已经不是很重要了，（假如是铊中毒的可能性25%
， 其余的猜测是2%,3%....）你难道认为贝在铊中毒的可能性是在骗大家吗？我是肯定
贝在救朱还是起了决定性作用的，至于贝是什么人，我也不能评价因为我没接触过。
【在 w****y 的大作中提到】
: 就算是100人。2000回信的30%是600封，也就是说这100人平均每人写了6封信！
: 100人平均6封信是非常大的量！只有有来有往的交流，才有可能。是这些人相互交流么
: ？还是贝志成跟他们写信交流？医生和化学家好像不是很忙的样子。
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