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发帖数: 22064 | 1 http://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-and-putina-camaraderie-of-conven
Necessity drives a friendship in which China sees itself as top dog
By Andrew Browne
Updated May 12, 2015 12:06 p.m. ET
SHANGHAI—In a slick propaganda video to showcase popular enthusiasm for
Vladimir Putin in China, a middle-aged woman plays coy before blurting out
her feelings.
“Putin, you’re a big handsome man,” she shrieks.
“Very big muscles,” grins a young man in dark-rimmed spectacles. And then
the ultimate compliment from a 20-something woman who’s apparently also
smitten: “As handsome as Big Daddy Xi!”
In the run-up to the World War II Victory Day parade in Moscow over the
weekend, the Chinese state media elevated the Russian leader onto a pedestal
alongside China’s president, Xi Jinping.
Vladimir Putin, right, and Xi Jinping at a concert in Moscow’s Red Square
on Saturday. Photo: European Pressphoto Agency .Don’t be fooled. Although
in some ways Messrs. Xi and Putin are kindred spirits—strong-willed
nationalists who stand up to America—Mr. Xi acts very much like the senior
partner. His economy is powerful; Russia’s is crumbling. China is a global
actor, Russia a regional one. Such superior Chinese attitudes, say political
analysts, are much more likely to produce an unstable relationship than a
united front.
And even as they display an easy camaraderie in public, these two stern
authoritarians represent distinct challenges to the U.S.-led order in Europe
and East Asia.
Mr. Putin is acting out of weakness. Unable to deliver improved living
standards amid slumping global prices for energy, Russia’s main export, he
’s offering Russians dreams of revived national greatness. His 2014
annexation of Crimea and alleged interventions in eastern Ukraine, denied by
the Kremlin, have sent his popularity soaring at home, though Western
sanctions on top of falling government revenues are biting hard.
To keep the economy afloat Mr. Putin has been forced to turn to China.
Necessity as much as comradeship is driving Russia to contemplate selling
China advanced military equipment that it once jealously guarded, including
Su-35 fighter jets, while it bargains away stakes in strategic oil fields.
In May last year, Mr. Putin signed a $400 billion deal to supply cut-price
gas in return for loans. The two sides are still haggling over the details.
Mikhail Karpov, an associate professor at the Russian Higher School of
Economics, is among those who are skeptical that Russia and China are
forming an anti-Western axis. On the contrary, he writes that mutual
distrust is likely to grow “nourished by stalemates in economic cooperation
.”
China understands Mr. Putin’s discomfort—hence its efforts to “give face
” to the Russian leader as best it can.
Mr. Xi flanked Mr. Putin at a military parade on Red Square to mark victory
over Nazi Germany 70 years ago, an event most Western leaders boycotted. A
Chinese honor guard marched past while three Chinese navy ships joined
commemorations in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Mr. Xi recalled
how during the war Russia and China “shared weal and woe.”
They have a lot less in common now. Russia, a shadow of its former imperial
self, beset by political violence and economic hardships, represents Mr. Xi
’s deepest fears about the future of China. He sees Russia as a lesson in
what can go wrong when the Communist Party gives up power. Nobody in Moscow,
he’s said disdainfully, was “man enough” to stand and fight for it. He
has dedicated his presidency to saving the Chinese party from that fate.
Mr. Xi is acting from strength. That’s reflected in his more-measured
challenge to American leadership in the Asia-Pacific.
He can afford to be patient: He doesn’t need quick military conquests to
bolster his domestic support, although there are fears his nationalism could
sharpen if the economy stumbles.
Rather, Mr. Xi shrewdly calculates that China’s expanding economy will over
time draw its neighbors into its orbit without a fight. His strategy is a
careful mix of inducements and intimidation.
Taiwan is a case in point. It is China’s Ukraine—a strategically important
territory the capital covets on its periphery. The big difference is that
China never recognized Taiwan as an independent country; it has long
considered it a breakaway province. Still, Taiwan has gone its own way—a
sovereign nation in all but name. If China was to opt for a military
solution to end the impasse it would potentially lead to war with America.
For now, though, Mr. Xi’s territorial plays are incremental, precisely to
avoid the kind of damaging confrontation Mr. Putin has provoked with the U.S
. and its allies.
The reality is that it would be impossible for China to continue its rise
without American markets and technology. Mr. Xi can’t just turn his back on
the U.S. in the way that Russia is walking away from Europe.
Mr. Xi finds his Russian counterpart useful to the extent that Mr. Putin’s
provocations in Europe keep America distracted from the Asia-Pacific.
And, of course, Mr. Xi welcomes cheap energy and contracts for Chinese
infrastructure builders in Russia. But the relationship is awkward. That was
captured in a small but telling way at an Asia-Pacific gathering in Beijing
last year when Mr. Putin draped a shawl over the shoulders of Mr. Xi’s
wife, Peng Liyuan, at an outdoor event. He meant it as a gallant gesture,
and China’s first lady smiled—then, as quickly as she could, she slipped
it off.
The Chinese public may admire Mr. Putin’s machismo. Mr. Xi, though, will
continue to be more guarded. He has far too much to lose.
Write to Andrew Browne at [email protected]
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