p********7
发帖数: 18007 | | r*******g
发帖数: 32828 | | p********7
发帖数: 18007 | 3 接盘是菌版将军义不容辞的光荣
【在 r*******g 的大作中提到】
: 有漂亮的， 可以分给军版的兄弟。 接盘我光荣。
| d***o
发帖数: 899 | 4 你朋友圈上都是做基金的？？
【在 p********7 的大作中提到】
: 我今天吓坏了
| l****5
发帖数: 5865 | | p********7
发帖数: 18007 | 6 我就是这专业的，哥哥
【在 d***o 的大作中提到】
: 你朋友圈上都是做基金的？？
| b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 7 You know its really hard to believe that the Chinese, for being as
diciplined and smart as they are in so many matters, got duped into falling
for the only thing proping up the Western economies. That is, ever expanding
credit fueling whatever growth that can be had. I mean first they invested
in infrastructure projects with free flowing credit from numerous parties
only to eventually realize that these apartment complexs, roads, energy
plants, shopping centers, etc. actually needed earnings to service the debt
(translation, customers!). Then the citizens fell for the "housing market"
story and bought up real estate (with debt) they didn't need or couldn't
afford only to watch these prices fall. So with the housing market tanking,
they then were hurded into the stock market with offers of rags to riches
stories abounding and supported by endless supplies of free money (i.e.,
margin debt).
What a fricking mess they've created all based on the most widely misused
and dangerous economic weapon of all-time, "Undiciplined use of Debt". But I
give the Chinese credit on one front as they definitely paid attention in
their finance courses at Harvard, Wharton, and other schools when they were
told, taught, or brainwashed into the Western mentality and thinking as it
relates to debt/credit. That is, just keep leveraging up to drive higher
returns and economic growth. As for real earnings, cash flow, and income,
hog wash as these don't really matter as long as the underlying asset is
increasing in value (curtosey of the world's CBs).
But you also must remember two other major problems with the Chinese stock
market on top of problem number one, excessive use of margin debt. Next up
and problem two was astronomical PE/valuation metrics that in no way, shape,
or form could be supported and/or were economically viable. These two
problems alone would cause most markets to crash but I believe the biggest
and baddest problem for the Chinese is in the reliability of the financial &
economic information they produce. Basically everyone with a clue realizes
the Chinese have been fabricating their GDP figures for years. This type of
mismanagement and deceit has no doubt spilled over into the private/
commercial markets where just about every company reporting financial
results in China, public or private, is suspect.
So what could go wrong with a credit fueled orgy, based on extreme
valuations, with financial figures and books that are propably cooked so bad
that they would make the insiders at Enron even blush? Throw on top of this
the second largest economy in the world that has no real experience dealing
with these matters and laws/regulations that are immature and untested (e.g
., real property ownership, secured interest in collateral through UCCs,
bankruptcy protection, properly functioning courts, etc., etc., etc.). Let's
just say ALOT!
No doubt the PBoC will throw everything at this mess as we all know, CB's
egos, arrogance, and greed have no ends. But one thing is for sure as we are
witnessing history in the making as in 20+ years when this period is
written about, it will be most likely referred to as "When the CBs attempted
to play God". Chapter one was written with the US MBS implosion. Chapter
two is happening with Greece/ECB. Chapter three, four, etc. are now being
written in China. The problem is, we have 20+ chapters to go as while the
fuse slowly burns to the top of the pyramid, it may take years and possibly
decades for this to play out. | d***o
发帖数: 899 | 8 看来潮水退去，你同行里还穿衣服的就剩你了兄弟
【在 p********7 的大作中提到】
: 我就是这专业的，哥哥
| p********7
发帖数: 18007 | 9 我脚上还踩着滑板 手上领着班花们 浩浩
【在 d***o 的大作中提到】
: 看来潮水退去，你同行里还穿衣服的就剩你了兄弟
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