h******t
发帖数: 872 | 1 http://www.wsj.com/articles/currency-war-u-s-hedge-funds-mount-
Some of the biggest names in the hedge-fund industry are piling up bets
against China’s currency, setting up a showdown between Wall Street and the
leaders of the world’s second-largest economy.
Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital Management has sold off the bulk of its
investments in stocks, commodities and bonds so it can focus on shorting
Asian currencies, including the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar.
It is the biggest concentrated wager that the Dallas-based firm has made
since its profitable bet years ago against the U.S. housing market. About 85
% of Hayman Capital’s portfolio is now invested in trades that are expected
to pay off if the yuan and Hong Kong dollar depreciate over the next three
years—a bet with billions of dollars on the line, including borrowed money.
“When you talk about orders of magnitude, this is much larger than the
subprime crisis,” said Mr. Bass, who believes the yuan could fall as much
as 40% in that period.
Billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller and hedge-fund manager David Tepper
have staked out positions of their own against the currency, also known as
the renminbi, according to people familiar with the matter. David Einhorn’
s Greenlight Capital Inc. holds options on the yuan depreciating.
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The funds’ bets come at a time of enormous sensitivity for China’s leaders
. The government is struggling on multiple fronts to manage a soft landing
for the economy, deal with a heavily indebted banking system and navigate
the transition to consumer-led growth.
Expectations for a weaker yuan have led to an exodus of capital by Chinese
residents and foreign investors. Though it still boasts the largest holding
of foreign reserves at $3.3 trillion, China has experienced huge outflows in
recent months. Hedge funds are gambling that China will let its currency
weaken further in a bid to halt a flood of money leaving the country and
jump-start economic growth.
The effort is a lot riskier, though, than taking on a currency whose value
is set by the market. China’s state-run economy gives the government a
number of levers to pull and tremendous resources at its disposal. Earlier
this year, state institutions bought up so much yuan in the Hong Kong market
where foreigners place most of their bets that overnight borrowing costs
shot up to 66%, making it difficult to finance short positions and sending
the yuan up sharply.
The situation grew more tense after billionaire investor George Soros
predicted at the World Economic Forum gathering in Davos, Switzerland,
recently that “a hard landing is practically unavoidable” for China’s
economy. He said he is betting against commodity-producing countries and
Asian currencies as a result.
George Soros, of Soros Fund Management, at the World Economic Forum in Davos
, Switzerland, recently. He said he is betting against Asian currencies.
ENLARGE
George Soros, of Soros Fund Management, at the World Economic Forum in Davos
, Switzerland, recently. He said he is betting against Asian currencies.
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS
Days later, a commentary appeared in China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency
warning that “radical speculators” trying to short sell, or bet against,
the Chinese currency would “suffer huge losses” as the Chinese monetary
authority takes “effective measures to stabilize the value of the yuan.”
A spokesman for Soros Fund Management, Mr. Soros’s family office, declined
to comment on the firm’s currency positions.
The show of force has scared off some fund managers from adding to their
wagers. Some traders have scaled back or even exited from their short bets,
saying they have little appetite to go up against the Chinese government.
Some say they are looking with new interest at shorting the currencies of
other Asian countries that they expect would fall if the yuan keeps
depreciating.
The standoff harks back to big battles such as Soros’s bet against the
British pound a quarter-century ago. In 1997, Malaysia’s prime minister
blamed Mr. Soros for a run on the ringgit during the Asian financial crisis.
Mr. Druckenmiller, then chief investment officer for Soros Fund Management,
said at the time that while the main Soros hedge fund had earlier shorted
the ringgit, it bought the currency during the crisis, cushioning its fall.
RELATED
Why China Shifted Its Strategy for the Yuan, and How It Backfired (Jan. 7)
Gloom Hangs Over China’s Economy Amid Market Turmoil (Jan. 8)
Beijing Flexes Muscle to Put Yuan in Line (Jan. 12)
Hayman Capital began betting against the yuan last year after studying China
’s banking system and being stunned at its rapid expansion of debt. The
firm’s analysis suggested that past-due loans, which currently stand at
about 2% of the total, would rise sharply and eventually require an
injection by the central government of trillions of dollars of yuan to
recapitalize the banks. An expansion of the Chinese central bank’s balance
sheet would lead its currency to weaken, just as the dollar depreciated when
the Federal Reserve bailed out U.S. banks during the financial crisis.
Broader market bets against the yuan began growing last August, when the
People’s Bank of China unexpectedly devalued the currency by 2% against the
U.S. dollar. The move fueled speculation that Beijing eventually would have
to decouple the yuan from the strengthening dollar and follow other
countries to weaken its currency as a way to buoy growth.
Mr. Druckenmiller, who now invests his own wealth, and one of his former
protégés, Zach Schreiber, who runs the roughly $10 billion hedge-fund firm
PointState Capital LP, also have had sizable shorts against the renminbi
since last year, people familiar with the matter said.
The wager helped PointState gain about 15% last year, said a person familiar
with the firm, and has contributed to gains of more than 5% through mid-
January.
Traders who remain bearish now are shorting China’s currency in several
ways, say people familiar with the trades. Some are betting that the gap
between the currency’s onshore exchange rate and more market-sensitive
offshore rate will diverge further. Early in January, the spread hit a
record of 0.1367 before government intervention narrowed it sharply.
Two days before China devalued its currency last August, William Ackman’s
Pershing Square Capital Management LP began to put on a “large notional
short position in the Chinese yuan through the purchase of puts and put
spreads” to hedge against “unanticipated weakness in the Chinese economy,
” according to Mr. Ackman’s annual investor letter, disclosed this past
week.
But, demonstrating how difficult it can be to profit from such bets, Mr.
Ackman said in the letter the wager had generated only a modest profit for
Pershing Square and had been insufficient to offset the firm’s larger
losses, as China continued to defend the exchange rate.
Mr. Ackman wrote that he continued to hold the position because of its
importance as a hedge.
Other firms that have profited from shorting China’s currency include the $
2 billion Scoggin Capital Management and Carlyle Group LP’s Emerging
Sovereign Group, according to people familiar with the matter.
For 2016, ESG’s short-China fund, Nexus, was up more than 20% partway
through January, according to people familiar with the fund, thanks in part
to a large short position against the yuan. Much of Nexus’s position is
made up of options, one of the people said.
It was unclear how much exposure Greenlight and Mr. Tepper’s Appaloosa
Management LP have, though Mr. Tepper was outspoken last year in calling the
yuan overvalued.
Since August, China has been imposing various rules to stabilize the
exchange rate and stem the outflows, including a 20% reserve requirement
applied to onshore yuan-derivative trades. That move makes it more expensive
for funds to keep shorting the currency through swaps.
Chinese officials have indicated they aren’t seeking to devalue the yuan in
order to gain advantage over their trading partners, citing the need to
avoid a damaging spiral of competitive devaluations as others follow suit.
The country still has room to stimulate its economy through fiscal policies,
economists say.
Write to Juliet Chung at [email protected]
/* */ and Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui
@wsj.com | b********n
发帖数: 38600 | | d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 3 你不懂乱说。
汇率的impossible trinity是hold的。就是。
1。固定汇率
2.自由兑换
3.独立货币政策（也就是可以央行自己调整自己利率）
这3个东东，任何国家只能占2个。
美国也只占了2个，2和3. 中国现在想3个都有，长期根本不可能。
现在美联储提高利率，其他国家货币就会相对贬值。人民币当然有贬值压力，资本相对
会流回美国（如果自由兑换的话）
中国应对就2个办法加等待这第3个办法：
a. 自由汇率。那就可以保留人民币国际化和央行有制定自己利率的条件。现在经济这
么差，必须央行要能降利率。但美元利率升高，人民币贬值，由于是浮动汇率，央行也
不需要保护，所以就无所谓。也就是保留了2，和3. 结果就是人民币贬值。
b. 依然固定汇率，放弃人民币国际化，搞capital control，保留1和3.即使央行降利
率，你老百姓像换美元，没戏，因为capital control，所以固定汇率可以保留，人民
币不贬值。
对冲基金赌中国不会放弃人民币国际化，为了保经济，只能贬值。
再说第3个办法，拖字诀。因为有3万亿和外贸顺差，可以拖，一直拖到美国经济周期发
生recession，美联储自然会降美元利率，于是对人民币就小了，也就okay了。这个要
拖2年。
估计中国央行现在是拖字诀。
再补充，由于土共是流氓，控制欲大，无论如何不可能货币自由兑换，所以我看好土共
放弃人民币国际化，搞资本控制，搞国内p民，小贬值有可能，自由兑换做梦，所以对
冲基金赚不了大钱。
如果对冲基金能赚大钱，只有一个原因，土工失去控制力，垮台，货币自由兑换，大贬
值。 | R*****5
发帖数: 4915 | 4 估计也就是搞搞东盟，韩国，台湾等地的货币，再猛点搞搞港元。
人民币不好搞，除非和国内大妈一起搞。 | s****Y
发帖数: 1004 | 5 摆明了声东击西，要搞台湾香港；这个无非就是告诉土共不要捣乱，只许围观。
the
85
expected
【在 h******t 的大作中提到】
: http://www.wsj.com/articles/currency-war-u-s-hedge-funds-mount-
: Some of the biggest names in the hedge-fund industry are piling up bets
: against China’s currency, setting up a showdown between Wall Street and the
: leaders of the world’s second-largest economy.
: Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital Management has sold off the bulk of its
: investments in stocks, commodities and bonds so it can focus on shorting
: Asian currencies, including the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar.
: It is the biggest concentrated wager that the Dallas-based firm has made
: since its profitable bet years ago against the U.S. housing market. About 85
: % of Hayman Capital’s portfolio is now invested in trades that are expected
| d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 6 其他的基本都是浮动汇率，大多数情况已经反应市场状况。
人民币是固定汇率，当年1992年英镑，1997-98年亚洲金融危机泰姝，印尼的，都是固
定汇率，央行要花外汇钱保护固定汇率。如果都是浮动汇率，央行根本不需要花钱保护
，也就不会损失外汇，市场也会调整比较快。
索罗斯人不错的，当年对朱融基说，不要搞人民币国际化，就是不要自由兑换，先把国
内金融自己开发，提高竞争力，再搞自由兑换。可惜朱融基不听。
现在土共先搞人民币国际化，自由兑换，国内金融水平又很差，那是自己给自己挖坑，
土共的本质又是不想放弃控制的，就是不会放弃固定汇率，看这次怎么从坑里爬出来。
【在 R*****5 的大作中提到】
: 估计也就是搞搞东盟，韩国，台湾等地的货币，再猛点搞搞港元。
: 人民币不好搞，除非和国内大妈一起搞。
| d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 7 搞都搞固定汇率，资本自由流动的货币，搞台湾做什么？
现在搞香港有啥用，香港是currency board，没有自己的货币政策，完全和美元挂钩的
，97后又加强安全机制，搞香港没用的。
【在 s****Y 的大作中提到】
: 摆明了声东击西，要搞台湾香港；这个无非就是告诉土共不要捣乱，只许围观。
:
: the
: 85
: expected
| s****Y
发帖数: 1004 | 8 搞香港台湾有啥用？做空赚钱啊！吸香港台湾的血，不吸白不吸。
香港就是典型的联系汇率，偏偏股市房市问题一大堆，不搞你搞谁。台湾眼见有重大风
险，不趁机做空都对不起华尔街。无非以前顾虑党妈出手阻挠，现在没这个问题了。
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 搞都搞固定汇率，资本自由流动的货币，搞台湾做什么？
: 现在搞香港有啥用，香港是currency board，没有自己的货币政策，完全和美元挂钩的
: ，97后又加强安全机制，搞香港没用的。
| d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 9 固定汇率和浮动汇率有区别的，浮动汇率反应市场均值.
台湾是浮动汇率，已经equilibrium了,除非你觉得你比市场更牛，否则你花大钱赌它做
什么？
香港是纯粹currency board，和一般固定汇率不一样,港币后面有100%美元支撑，你可
以想象香港用的就是美元，你用美元去attack美元作什么？
【在 s****Y 的大作中提到】
: 搞香港台湾有啥用？做空赚钱啊！吸香港台湾的血，不吸白不吸。
: 香港就是典型的联系汇率，偏偏股市房市问题一大堆，不搞你搞谁。台湾眼见有重大风
: 险，不趁机做空都对不起华尔街。无非以前顾虑党妈出手阻挠，现在没这个问题了。
| t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 10 国际在赌港币和美元脱钩. 香港现在糟糕得很, 港币港股双重被狙击,跟 1998年的时候
一样.只有流通港币有美元支持,但是固定资产没有美元支持.资金大规模撤离香港的话,
港府的美元储备根本不够用.
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 固定汇率和浮动汇率有区别的，浮动汇率反应市场均值.
: 台湾是浮动汇率，已经equilibrium了,除非你觉得你比市场更牛，否则你花大钱赌它做
: 什么？
: 香港是纯粹currency board，和一般固定汇率不一样,港币后面有100%美元支撑，你可
: 以想象香港用的就是美元，你用美元去attack美元作什么？
| | | O***O
发帖数: 1854 | 11 同意分析。华尔街应该是想搞一切跟赵国经济密切联系的经济体：澳门、香港、台湾、
澳大利亚，等等。赵国现在经济萧条，是天门煞星，谁离得近谁倒霉。
赵国本身因为有随时赖帐的大杀器以及翻脸不认账的以往纪录，所以反而没人来刻意搞
之。
华尔街前度放话应当是虚晃一枪，警告赵国在家里蹲着，别乱出头。好比流氓想强奸赵
老太太，警告赵老太爷别反抗在一边看着就没事。
不过赵老太爷似乎已经方寸大乱，人民日报的杀手锏都放出来了。
【在 s****Y 的大作中提到】
: 摆明了声东击西，要搞台湾香港；这个无非就是告诉土共不要捣乱，只许围观。
:
: the
: 85
: expected
| l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 12
朱镕基都下台十几年了，关人家P事啊！问题就出在一个人身上，就是习小组长，习大
核心。不能说权力都往自己身上揽，责任都朝别人身上推。
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 其他的基本都是浮动汇率，大多数情况已经反应市场状况。
: 人民币是固定汇率，当年1992年英镑，1997-98年亚洲金融危机泰姝，印尼的，都是固
: 定汇率，央行要花外汇钱保护固定汇率。如果都是浮动汇率，央行根本不需要花钱保护
: ，也就不会损失外汇，市场也会调整比较快。
: 索罗斯人不错的，当年对朱融基说，不要搞人民币国际化，就是不要自由兑换，先把国
: 内金融自己开发，提高竞争力，再搞自由兑换。可惜朱融基不听。
: 现在土共先搞人民币国际化，自由兑换，国内金融水平又很差，那是自己给自己挖坑，
: 土共的本质又是不想放弃控制的，就是不会放弃固定汇率，看这次怎么从坑里爬出来。
| k*****r
发帖数: 21039 | 13 米疣全面监听胖子，格格也是bug, 现在吃准了胖子智商不高，好大喜功，睚眦必报的
特点，全面进攻。
哈哈。
后清没10年阳寿了，胖子和英语把后清往死里整。
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】
:
: 朱镕基都下台十几年了，关人家P事啊！问题就出在一个人身上，就是习小组长，习大
: 核心。不能说权力都往自己身上揽，责任都朝别人身上推。
| C*******f
发帖数: 13152 | 14 当年索罗斯搞香港的时候是用美元attack美元吗？
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 固定汇率和浮动汇率有区别的，浮动汇率反应市场均值.
: 台湾是浮动汇率，已经equilibrium了,除非你觉得你比市场更牛，否则你花大钱赌它做
: 什么？
: 香港是纯粹currency board，和一般固定汇率不一样,港币后面有100%美元支撑，你可
: 以想象香港用的就是美元，你用美元去attack美元作什么？
| R*****5
发帖数: 4915 | 15 你太教条了
浮动汇率一样可以搞，搞起气氛造恐慌，你外汇储备不够用，就等着被收割吧。
日元，英镑都能做空，别提亚洲中小国家的货币了。
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 固定汇率和浮动汇率有区别的，浮动汇率反应市场均值.
: 台湾是浮动汇率，已经equilibrium了,除非你觉得你比市场更牛，否则你花大钱赌它做
: 什么？
: 香港是纯粹currency board，和一般固定汇率不一样,港币后面有100%美元支撑，你可
: 以想象香港用的就是美元，你用美元去attack美元作什么？
| s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 16 这个赌的有点大。但如果，搞的其他亚洲货币大幅贬值，人民币贬值压力会加大，否则
外贸吃不消。对外掀桌子可能性很小了，对内倒是可以，你不再是一穷二白了，掀桌子
，你的外币资产咋办？海外投资咋办？一万亿美国国债，你是债主，你咋掀桌子？还有
就是其他国家有没有搞头？你搞个港澳台，挣个块八毛的，值当么？ | b*****e
发帖数: 474 | 17 这是和美联储唱对台戏？演戏吧
the
85
expected
【在 h******t 的大作中提到】
: http://www.wsj.com/articles/currency-war-u-s-hedge-funds-mount-
: Some of the biggest names in the hedge-fund industry are piling up bets
: against China’s currency, setting up a showdown between Wall Street and the
: leaders of the world’s second-largest economy.
: Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital Management has sold off the bulk of its
: investments in stocks, commodities and bonds so it can focus on shorting
: Asian currencies, including the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar.
: It is the biggest concentrated wager that the Dallas-based firm has made
: since its profitable bet years ago against the U.S. housing market. About 85
: % of Hayman Capital’s portfolio is now invested in trades that are expected
|
|
