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发帖数: 8041 | 3 The majority of the economic and demographic data used in the making of the
forecasts is widely available by institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, USG,
etc. You can see the most relevant data at every single country's page.
There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as
Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all these sources are from
the internet and are of public domain for at least a minority. For example,
several years ago Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, published a report
analyzing the physical economy of the States comparing it with those of
China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was something
between $5 to $10 trillion instead of $15 trillion as officially reported by
the USG. We assume that the official data, especially economic, released by
governments is fake, cooked or distorted in some degree. Historically it is
well known that the former Soviet Union was making up fake statistics years
before its collapse. Western as well as other countries are making up their
numbers today to conceal their real state of affairs. We are sure that many
people out there can find government statistics in their own countries that
by their own personal experience are hard to believe or are so optimistic
that may belong to a different country.
Despite the numeric data "quantity" there is a "quality" model which has not
a direct translation into numeric data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a
death rate of 50-60% but try to imagine what would happen if there is a
pandemic of Ebola with hundreds of thousands or millions infected with the
virus. So far the few cases of Ebola-infected people have "enjoyed"
intensive healthcare with anti-viral and breathing assistance but above all
with abundant human support by Physicians and nurses. In a pandemic scenario
that kind of healthcare won't be available for the overwhelming number of
infected leading to a dramatic increase of the death rate due to the lack of
proper healthcare. The "quality" factor is that the death rate could
increase to 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the stated 50-60% rate. The
figure itself is not important what is relevant is the fact that the
scenario can evolve beyond the initial conditions from a 50% death toll to
more than 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the
forecast.
The key element to understand the process that the USA will enter in the
upcoming decade is migration. In the past, specially in the 20th century,
the key factor that allowed the USA to rise to its colossus status was
immigration with the benefits of a demographic expansion supporting the
credit expansion and the brain drain from the rest of the world benefiting
the States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the
standard of living of its population while ending ponzi schemes such as the
stock exchange and the pension funds. The population will be hit so badly by
a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will
start to work in reverse accelerating itself due to ripple effects thus
leading to the demise of the States. This unseen situation for the States
will develop itself in a cascade pattern with unprecedented and devastating
effects for the economy. Jobs offshoring will surely end with many American
Corporations relocating overseas thus becoming foreign Corporations!!!! We
see a significant part of the American population migrating to Latin America
and Asia while migration to Europe - suffering a similar illness - won't be
relevant. Nevertheless the death toll will be horrible. Take into account
that the Soviet Union's population was poorer than the Americans nowadays or
even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the following struggle in the
1990s with a significant death toll and the loss of national pride. Might we
say "Twice the pride, double the fall"? Nope. The American standard of
living is one of the highest, far more than double of the Soviets while
having added a services economy that will be gone along with the financial
system. When pensioners see their retirement disappear in front of their
eyes and there are no servicing jobs you can imagine what is going to happen
next. At least younger people can migrate. Never in human history were so
many elders among the population. In past centuries people were lucky to get
to their 30s or 40s. The American downfall is set to be far worse than the
Soviet Union's one. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The Demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries has extended for
over two decades, if we accept that it ended early in this decade (2010s).
The demographic crisis will hit the World in the near future and is
projected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on
technological breakthrough and environmental issues. The aftermath is more
likely a frozen picture with the population numbers staying the same for a
very, very long period of time. The countries forecast population numbers do
reflect birth/deaths but also migratory movements. Many countries are going
to increase their gross population due to immigration while their native
population may shrink.
Over the past two thousand years we have witnessed the Western civilization
built around the Mediterranean Sea shifting to Northern Europe and then by
the mid 20th century shifting to an Atlantic axis to finally get centered
into the States in the past 30 years. The next move will see the
civilization being centered in Asia with Russia and China on top.
Historically a change in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll
that is rarely highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition
from rural areas to large cities happened in Europe many people unable to
accept the new paradigm killed themselves. They killed themselves by a
psychological factor. This is not mainstream but it is true. A new crisis
joins old, well known patterns with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. It is getting worse and
worse every year since the beginning of the pre-crisis in 2007. It is
already said that this website is non-profit, built on spare time and we
provide our information and services AS IS without further explanations and/
or guarantees. We are not linked to any government in any way, shape or form
. We are not a death or satanic cult or arms dealers as some BS is floating
around the internet on this topic. Take into account that the forecast is
nothing more than a model whether flawed or correct. It is not God's word or
a magic device that allows to foresee the future.
Sunday, October 26th, 2014 |
