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发帖数: 33885 | 1 要点：2025的实现不是来自中央的2计划经济，而是来自民间的资本家
Why 'Made in China 2025' will succeed, despite Trump
Li Yuan
Published 12 Mins Ago The New York Times
China will succeed in building a powerful technology industry that will
rival the United States, even if President Trump starts a trade war to stop
it. The reason can be found on the fourth floor of a nondescript factory in
a city once famous for cheap manufacturing and prostitution.
This factory floor, in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan, once employed
what one employee called a “magnificent sea of people.” Rising labor costs
and a new generation with little interest in toiling in factories forced a
new tack. Now the sea of people is being replaced by a whirring array of
boxy machines, each performing work it used to take 15 people 26 steps to
finish.
The factory suggests that Beijing's vision of Made in China 2025 — the
ambitious state-driven plan to retool China’s industries to compete in
areas like automation, microchips and self-driving cars — is not being
pushed just by the Communist Party’s top leaders. Instead, the drive is
also coming from the bottom up: from the businesses and cities across China
that know they must modernize or perish.
The Trump administration is not wrong to confront Beijing over Made in China
2025. China’s top-down approach gives its companies unfair advantages and
could continue to roil global trade relations long after Mr. Trump retires
to Mar-a-Lago.
But Made in China 2025 is also being propelled by businesses like Dongguan
Mentech Optical & Magnetic Company, the owner of the factory, which are
worried about labor costs and their own futures. It comes from local
governments looking for ways to stay relevant. It comes from a growing
network of private-sector entrepreneurs, academics and local politicians who
are increasingly working together to overhaul China’s factories and its
future. Other cities — Suzhou, Wenzhou, Xuzhou and the industrial areas
around Shanghai are just a few examples — have also drummed up their own
automation plans.
The modernization may not happen in 2025. In fact, it may be long after that
. But China will get there, mostly because it has to.
“If Made in China 2025 were a car, the engine has started and it’s
definitely moving along,” said Zhang Guojun, director of Guangdong
Intelligent Robotics Institute in Dongguan, one of several city-supported
local research centers helping the factories upgrade. The city was
automating well before Made in China 2025 came out in 2015, he said, “but
the policy provided us a clear direction.”
A city of eight million people in the Pearl River Delta, Dongguan long
relied on making and exporting shoes, toys and electronic parts to the
United States and Europe. In many ways, it looks like the factory-dominated
China of popular imagination, with whole parts of the city pervaded by rows
of rectangular factory buildings, one after another.
Then the 2008 financial crisis hit. Orders dried up. Dongguan became known
as China’s capital of prostitution until a government crackdown cleaned it
up.
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