W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 1 看看这篇文章。有什么启发呢？这个研究有意义吗？有没有把种族干扰因素排除？
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Detailed New National Maps Show How Neighborhoods Shape Children for Life
Some places lift children out of poverty. Others trap them there. Now cities
are trying to do something about the difference.
Whatever Distinguishes a Good Neighborhood Can Be Invisible.
↗ Neighborhoods Can Lift Kids Up or Hold Them Back. Cities Now Know
Which Are Which.
SEATTLE — The part of this city east of Northgate Mall looks like many of
the neighborhoods that surround it, with its modest midcentury homes beneath
dogwood and Douglas fir trees.
Whatever distinguishes this place is invisible from the street. But it
appears that poor children who grow up here — to a greater degree than
children living even a mile away — have good odds of escaping poverty over
the course of their lives.
Believing this, officials in the Seattle Housing Authority are offering some
families with housing vouchers extra rent money and help to find a home
here: between 100th and 115th Streets, east of Meridian, west of 35th Avenue
. Officials drew these lines, and boundaries around several other Seattle
neighborhoods, using highly detailed research on the economic fortunes of
children in nearly every neighborhood in America.
The research has shown that where children live matters deeply in whether
they prosper as adults. On Monday the Census Bureau, in collaboration with
researchers at Harvard and Brown, published nationwide data that will make
it possible to pinpoint — down to the census tract, a level relevant to
individual families — where children of all backgrounds have the best shot
at getting ahead.
This work, years in the making, seeks to bring the abstract promise of big
data to the real lives of children. Across the country, city officials and
philanthropists who have dreamed of such a map are planning how to use it.
They’re hoping it can help crack open a problem, the persistence of
neighborhood disadvantage, that has been resistant to government
interventions and good intentions for years.
↗ Interactive Graphic: Opportunity at the neighborhood level
An interactive map of estimated adult income for poor children across the
country.
Nationwide, the variation is striking. Children raised in poor families in
some neighborhoods of Memphis went on to make just $16,000 a year in their
adult households; children from families of similar means living in parts of
the Minneapolis suburbs ended up making four times as much.
The local disparities, however, are the most curious, and the most
compelling to policymakers. In one of the tracts just north of Seattle’s
115th Street — a place that looks similarly leafy, with access to the same
middle school — poor children went on to households earning about $5,000
less per year than children raised in Northgate. They were more likely to be
incarcerated and less likely to be employed.
The researchers believe much of this variation is driven by the
neighborhoods themselves, not by differences in what brings people to live
in them. The more years children spend in a good neighborhood, the greater
the benefits they receive. And what matters, the researchers find, is a
hyper-local setting: the environment within about half a mile of a child’s
home.
At that scale, these patterns — a refinement of previous research at the
county level — have become much less theoretical, and easier to act on.
“That’s exciting and inspiring and daunting in some ways that we’re
actually talking about real families, about kids growing up in different
neighborhoods based on this data,” said the Harvard economist Raj Chetty,
one of the project’s researchers, along with Nathaniel Hendren at Harvard,
John N. Friedman at Brown, and Maggie R. Jones and Sonya R. Porter at the
Census Bureau.
The Seattle and King County housing authorities are testing whether they can
leverage their voucher programs to move families to where opportunity
already exists. In Charlotte, where poverty is deeper and more widespread,
community leaders are hoping to nurse opportunity where it’s missing.
In other communities, the researchers envision that this mapping could help
identify sites for new Head Start centers, or neighborhoods for “
Opportunity Zones” created by the 2017 tax law. Children from low-
opportunity neighborhoods, they suggest, could merit priority for selective
high schools.
For any government program or community grant that targets a specific place,
this data proposes a better way to pick those places — one based not on
neighborhood poverty levels, but on whether we expect children will escape
poverty as adults.
That metric is both more specific and more mysterious. Researchers still don
’t understand exactly what leads some neighborhoods to nurture children,
although they point to characteristics like more employed adults and two-
parent families that are common among such places. Other features like
school boundary lines and poverty levels often cited as indicators of good
neighborhoods explain only half of the variation here.
“These things are now possible to think about in a different way than you
thought about them before,” said Greg Russ, the head of the Minneapolis
Public Housing Authority, which is also planning to use the data. “Is
opportunity a block away? These are the kind of questions we can ask.”
The answers shown here are based on the adult earnings of 20.5 million
children, captured in anonymous, individual-level census and tax data that
links each child with his or her parents. That data covers nearly all
children in America born between 1978 and 1983, although the map here
illustrates the subset of those children raised in poorer families. The
research offers a time-lapse view of what happened to them: who became a
teenage mother, who went to prison, who wound up in the middle class, and
who remained trapped in poverty for another generation.
Few of the children from Northgate still live in the neighborhood, but the
data traces their outcomes as adults today back to the place that helped
shape them.
↗ Interactive Graphic: A hyperlocal look at which places give children
from different backgrounds the best shot at getting ahead
The mechanisms that lead neighborhoods to nurture children are still
mysterious and vary from city to city.
The patterns broadly hold true for children growing up today, the
researchers believe, even though the data reflects the experience of people
now in their 30s. In rapidly changing cities like Seattle, some
neighborhoods will look quite different now. So in drawing their opportunity
maps, the housing authorities here, working with Mr. Chetty’s team, also
considered indicators like poverty rates and test scores for poor students
today.
The researchers argue, however, that this data that looks back over the last
30 years can reveal something about a place that’s not captured in
snapshots of its conditions today.
In Seattle, that picture confirmed what housing officials feared — that
their voucher holders had long been clustered in neighborhoods offering the
least upward mobility.
“It really struck us as, well, we are contributing to this problem, not
solving the problem,” said Andrew Lofton, the executive director of the
Seattle Housing Authority.
Here the response means offering some of those families more choices in
where to live. But that solution won’t help every child, or even many of
them. The larger question is how to convert struggling neighborhoods into
places where poor children are likely to thrive.
In other regions, the differences between such places are more visible than
in Seattle.
In the Charlotte area, Ophelia Garmon-Brown, a longtime family physician,
sees in these maps clear traces of where the fewest jobs are, where the high
-poverty schools are, where African-American families live.
“You could drive from your home in south Charlotte to your banking job
downtown and never see poverty, because we’re so segregated,” said Dr.
Garmon-Brown, who grew up poor herself, in Detroit. “In some of this, we
have to admit that was intentional.”
The earlier research showed Charlotte as among the worst large metropolitan
areas in the country in creating opportunity for poor children, a
realization that prompted the community to create a task force co-chaired by
Dr. Garmon-Brown. At this finer scale, parsing outcomes by race and
neighborhood, poor white children in Charlotte have had more opportunity
than poor black children, even when they’ve grown up in the same
neighborhoods. In many parts of the region, however, their worlds simply don
’t overlap.
In other communities, what separates neighborhoods is probably tied to
incarceration. Included in the new census data are neighborhood-level rates
of children who were later counted in the census in prisons or jails on
April 1, 2010.
About 1.5 percent of the entire cohort, adults then in their late 20s to
early 30s, were incarcerated on that single day. For some neighborhoods in
Milwaukee or New Haven, that number was far higher: As many as one in four
poor black boys growing up in those places were incarcerated. Their
neighborhoods — or something about how those neighborhoods were policed —
sent more poor children into prison than out of poverty.
↗ In some cities, 1 in 4 poor black boys from the same neighborhood
were counted as being incarcerated in that year.
New data shows the rates of children who wound up imprisoned in 2010
Underscoring how difficult it will be to transform these places, the federal
government has spent billions in struggling neighborhoods over the years,
funneling as much as $500 million into some individual census tracts since
1990, according to a tally by researchers of major placed-based initiatives
like block grants and housing redevelopment programs.
“And yet we’ve never been able as a country to fully know whether and to
what degree those investments were efficacious,” said Kathryn Edin, a
Princeton sociologist.
Ms. Edin and other researchers working with Mr. Chetty plan to re-examine
those past government programs with the new data, which makes it possible to
identify where children lived when they were exposed to those investments,
and what happened to them afterward.
If the answers are not clear yet, there is a hint of answers coming, now
that we have fine-grained data on millions of children, now that cities
alarmed by the results are taking notice, now that philanthropists are
lining up to help.
In Seattle, where all these pieces have converged, housing officials were
recently driving past neighborhoods their map doesn’t identify, into “
opportunity areas” where families have begun to move.
“I believe the results of the data, but we all wish we knew what the
distinguishing attributes are, so that we could build them in other
neighborhoods,” said Andria Lazaga, the director of policy and strategic
initiatives with the Seattle Housing Authority. “That’s the dream — to
figure that out.”
The poor children shown here were raised in families making about $27,000 a
year (in 2015 dollars), at the 25th percentile of the national income
distribution. Not all neighborhoods were home to such families, so
researchers calculated tract-level estimates by extrapolating from the
results of families at other percentiles who were present there. Data is not
shown in tracts with few children. Results not shown here covering other
income levels and full outcomes including incarceration are available here.
Josh Williams contributed research.
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. | j****3
发帖数: 2836 | 2 养移体，居移气。中国古人早就知道环境对人的潜移默化是很重要的。 | m********k
发帖数: 1 | | l****e
发帖数: 25 | 4 同意
这种东西金主看不大清楚
但是你要啥结论给钱都有人做。
: 房地产公司资助的研究
【在 m********k 的大作中提到】
: 房地产公司资助的研究
| F**0
发帖数: 5004 | | W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 6 是不是打肿脸充胖子住高尚白富人区砸锅卖铁拼命推娃的钱老老中，最后子女终于给亚
马逊微软做上打工仔，在统计数字里？
：同意
：这种东西金主看不大清楚
：但是你要啥结论给钱都有人做。
：【 在 masterlink() 的大作中提到: 】
：<br>: 房地产公司资助的研究
：<br>
【在 l****e 的大作中提到】
: 同意
: 这种东西金主看不大清楚
: 但是你要啥结论给钱都有人做。
:
:
: 房地产公司资助的研究
:
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