s******g
发帖数: 536 | 1 Trump just blinked, giving China a possible edge in trade war, Jim Chanos
and others say
PUBLISHED 5 HOURS AGOUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Kate Rooney
@KR00NEY
KEY POINTS
Some influential voices on Wall Street are saying Trump blinked in the
latest exchange with China and showed just how much pain the U.S. could
tolerate. China may use that to its advantage.
“Tell me why Xi should not continue to wait out The World’s Greatest
Negotiator, who keeps ‘dealing’ with himself?” says Jim Chanos, founder
and managing Partner of Kynikos Associates.
Markets rallied on the announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative office
that certain items were being removed from the new China tariff list and
others would be delayed until mid-December.
In backing off on China tariffs Tuesday, President Donald Trump showed just
how much pain the U.S. could tolerate — and China may use that to its
advantage, key voices on Wall Street say.
Markets rallied on the announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative office
that certain items were being removed from the new tariff list, while duties
on others would be delayed until mid-December.
The short-seller Jim Chanos, who tweets under the alter ego “Diogenes,”
hinted that Chinese President Xi Jinping may take this as a sign that the U.
S. may cave with enough pressure.
“So then tell me why Xi should not continue to wait out The World’s
Greatest Negotiator, who keeps ‘dealing’ with himself?” tweeted Chanos,
founder and managing Partner of Kynikos Associates.
Some investors took Tuesday’s announcement as a sign that despite the White
House’s claim that China would bear the brunt of tariff impacts, the trade
war was indeed hurting consumers. The products in the group exempt from
tariffs include cellphones, some apparel, and video games — all of which
are crucial to the U.S. consumer market, especially during the holiday
shopping season. Trump announced on Aug. 1 that 10% tariffs would go into
effect on Sept. 1 on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports
that had not been slapped with U.S. duties.
Trump told reporters Tuesday afternoon that he postponed tariffs for the
Christmas season “in case it had an impact on shopping” and the delay
would “help a lot of people.”
Hedge fund manager and Hayman Capital Management founder Kyle Bass said
based on the tariff de-escalation, “it does look like President Trump has
blinked.” While Trump has been vocal in the tariff fight, Bass said “every
time it makes the stock market go down a few hundred points” the president
“backs away.”
“It looks like he doesn’t want the price of iPhones going up into
Christmas,” Bass said on CNBC’s “Squawk Alley ” Tuesday. “The Chinese
are going to read this as a key weakness.”
China meanwhile, has not publicly backed off. It announced last week that it
would not resume buying U.S. agricultural products, despite assurances
otherwise by Xi to Trump at the June G-20 summit. It also has retaliated
with its own tariffs on U.S. goods and set off more worries about the trade
war on Friday by letting its currency weaken.
John Rutledge, chief investment officer of global principal investment house
Safanad, said the trade war is causing pain on both sides. In China,
Rutledge said Xi is feeling pressure to show strength in the trade war,
while Washington is grappling with mounting political pressure and costs to
consumers.
But that can change quickly, Rutledge said, depending on which of Trump’s
trade advisors have his ear at the moment.
“There’s a battle of the bands among advisors — this may be just a tick
up as the rational group prevailed,” Rutledge said, referring to White
House economic advisor Larry Kudlow, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, whom he calls “market thinkers” in
opposition to trade hawk and advisor Peter Navarro.
Still, Rutledge said its nearly impossible to predict the White House’s
next move and investors should take this as “one day and one data point.”
“We shouldn’t extrapolate or draw a trend, since it might get revered,”
Rutledge said.
The president’s top priorities — a strong stock market and a tough China
trade deal — have been at odds. Uncertainty around the trade war has
weighed on financial markets. Stocks saw their worst day of the year on Aug.
5 after China let its currency weaken below 7 yuan to the dollar and made
its announcement about U.S. farm products.
“The White House is now delaying the tariffs and removing some items. Did
some acronym called the SPX cause someone to blink?,” David Rosenberg,
chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, said in a
tweet.
China’s Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu He had a phone call with U.
S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer and Mnuchin. Trade talks are set to
continue in two weeks. According to Chinese news outlet CGTN, the call for
the world’s two largest economies to meet again on trade came from
Lighthizer, not China.
So far, the pain felt by the stock market has not been that exaggerated. At
its low point for this sell-off, the S&P 500 was down only a little more
than 6% from its high.
“These developments are modestly positive, especially compared to the
recent torrent of negative news, but we caution against viewing the tariff
delay as anything more than an attempt to partially shield the American
consumer heading into the holiday season,” Isaac Boltansky of Compass Point
Research wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to believe that a broad
deal will not emerge prior to the 2020 election.”
Trump, himself, accused China last week of trying to wait out the 2020
election for a trade deal. | s******g
发帖数: 536 | 2 “So then tell me why Xi should not continue to wait out The World’s
Greatest Negotiator, who keeps ‘dealing’ with himself?” tweeted Chanos,
founder and managing Partner of Kynikos Associates. | s******g
发帖数: 536 | 3 According to Chinese news outlet CGTN, the call for the world’s two largest
economies to meet again on trade came from Lighthizer, not China. | Y***i
发帖数: 1932 | | s******g
发帖数: 536 | | xt
发帖数: 17532 | 6 我猜床铺一定是在炒股。一推故事来回砸一下，一圈下来
好几亿就有了。 | s******g
发帖数: 536 | 7 You are not alone.
"The World’s Greatest Negotiator, who keeps ‘dealing’ with himself"
【在 xt 的大作中提到】
: 我猜床铺一定是在炒股。一推故事来回砸一下，一圈下来
: 好几亿就有了。
| c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 8 blink个头，明明还是在强奸只是拔出来一半而已
-老将
【在 s******g 的大作中提到】
: Trump just blinked, giving China a possible edge in trade war, Jim Chanos
: and others say
: PUBLISHED 5 HOURS AGOUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
: Kate Rooney
: @KR00NEY
: KEY POINTS
: Some influential voices on Wall Street are saying Trump blinked in the
: latest exchange with China and showed just how much pain the U.S. could
: tolerate. China may use that to its advantage.
: “Tell me why Xi should not continue to wait out The World’s Greatest
|
|
