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发帖数: 17190 | 1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/china-sacrifices-a-
province-to-save-the-world-from-coronavirus
Prognosis
China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World From Coronavirus
Bloomberg News
2020年2月6日 上午12:01 [GMT+8]
Hubei province has seen 97% of all deaths from the virus
Quarantine lockdown delayed key supplies from getting in
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China Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 636, With 31,161 Confirmed Cases
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China Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 636, With 31,161 Confirmed Cases
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Musician Zhang Yaru’s grandmother died on Monday after slipping into a coma
. She was repeatedly turned away from the hospital.
John Chen, a college graduate, is desperately seeking help for his mom. She
has a high fever, but isn’t strong enough to stand in line for hours to be
tested for the virus raging through their city.
On the front line, a 30-year-old respiratory doctor has slept only a few
hours in two weeks.
Scenes of chaos and despair are emerging daily from China’s Hubei province,
the landlocked region of 60 million people where the new coronavirus dubbed
2019-nCoV was first identified in December, and where it has since cut a
wide, deadly swathe.
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While cases have spread around the globe, the virus’ impact has been most
keenly felt in Hubei, which has seen a staggering 97% of all deaths from the
illness, and 67% of all patients.
The toll, which grows larger every day, reflects a local health system
overwhelmed by the fast-moving, alien pathogen, making even the most basic
care impossible. It’s also an ongoing illustration of the human cost
extracted by the world’s largest-known quarantine, with China effectively
locking down the region from Jan. 23 to contain the virus’ spread to the
rest of the country, and the world.
But Hubei -- known for its car factories and bustling capital Wuhan -- is
paying the price, with the mortality rate for coronavirus patients there 3.1
%, versus 0.16% for the rest of China.
“If the province was not sealed off, some people would have gone all around
the country to try to get medical help, and would have turned the whole
nation into an epidemic-stricken area,” said Yang Gonghuan, former deputy
director general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention. “
The quarantine brought a lot of hardship to Hubei and Wuhan, but it was the
right thing to do.”
“It’s like fighting a war -- some things are hard, but must be done.”
Wuhan, home to 11 million people, is a “second-tier” Chinese city, meaning
it’s relatively developed but still a step below China’s major
metropolises of Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. It has well-regarded
hospitals, but resources lag behind those of more prominent cities.
In the early days of the virus’ spread, prevarication and delay by local
officials also allowed the pathogen to circulate more widely among an
unsuspecting public.
Concentrated Death Toll
97% of deaths have been in Wuhan and the rest of Hubei
Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg from official sources
Note: Both deaths outside China were of people who had been in Wuhan
recently
While doctors first noticed the virus -- thought to have been passed from an
animal to humans at a Wuhan food market -- in early December, and signs it
was being transmitted among people were seen at the beginning of January,
authorities still allowed large-scale public events to take place. The scale
of the crisis only became fully apparent to the wider public in the days
leading up to the start of China’s annual Lunar New Year holiday on Jan. 24
, as cases emerged elsewhere.
Caught Out
It came “like a sudden downpour that caught Wuhan off guard,” said Zeng
Yan, a professor at the school of medicine at Wuhan University of Science
and Technology.
The 110 intensive care unit beds in the city designated for virus patients
had already been filled many times over when China announced on Jan. 23 that
it would take the unprecedented step of sealing off Wuhan, preventing
possible pathogen carriers from traveling out, but also preventing most
people from coming in. The quarantine soon widened to encompass nearly the
entire province.
CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS
Medical staff take samples from a person at a quarantine zone in Wuhan, Feb.
4.Photographer: AFP via Getty Images
In the chaotic, confused days that followed, which coincided with China’s
week-long national holiday, the quarantine restrictions coupled with an
already overwhelmed city infrastructure meant that supplies of essential
medical equipment including masks, protective suits and high-grade
disinfectant were slow to get to Wuhan’s hospitals.
“We were advised to use masks, gloves and protective clothing in a thrifty
manner, and avoid drinking water so we would not have to go to the bathroom,
which would require a change of protective clothing,” said one frontline
doctor working at the Third People’s Hospital of Hubei Province, who
declined to give her name for fear of reprisal.
Supplies Stymied
Ding Ze, whose family owns an eyewear company located in another part of
China, said that their delivery of medical goggles to Wuhan was delayed by
10 days.
CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS
A doctor being disinfected by his colleague at a quarantine zone in Wuhan,
Feb. 3.Photographer: AFP via Getty Images
“We sent the supply on Jan. 25, and they arrived at hospitals on Feb. 2.,”
he said. “All deliveries from outside to the province were slowed by the
strict quarantine procedures.”
While China’s government activated eight cargo carriers on Feb. 2 to ship
in 58 tons of supplies to Wuhan, and donations are starting to flow in from
all over the world, the shortages in those crucial days -- combined with the
virus’ rapid spread as the surge in patients saw hospitals turn people
away for lack of space -- had devastating consequences.
Between Jan 23. and Feb 4., the number of officially recorded deaths from
the coronavirus in Hubei grew by over 25 times, to nearly 500. Scores more
likely went unrecorded because they weren’t admitted to hospital in time to
be diagnosed.
Two-Thirds of Cases are in Hubei
Another 1/3 are in the rest of China and less than 1% are elsewhere
Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg from official sources, as of Feb. 5
Zhang Yaru’s grandmother was turned away from hospital at the end of
January because her symptoms were mild. She slipped into a coma shortly
after and died without being diagnosed.
“She didn’t manage to say a word to us before she died, she probably had
no idea what happened,” said Zhang, a native of E’Zhou, a smaller city
adjacent to Wuhan that’s also being quarantined. “Our family is now driven
into a corner, desperate, all my family members are potentially infected
and my grandfather is showing the same symptoms.”
While virus cases within Hubei province are still growing by the thousands
every day, infections are slowing in the rest of China -- an early sign that
the aggressive containment may have worked to limit the coronavirus’
spread nationally and globally.
China Will Soon Find Out If Lockdown of 50 Million Halted Virus
Daily Life In Wuhan During Lockdown
Cleaners wash the street with a high-pressure water gun in Wuhan on Feb. 3.
Photographer: Getty Images
The quarantine was the right thing to do for the good of the wider
population, said the doctor at the Third People’s Hospital. “Some may say
Hubei was sacrificed, but it did effectively stem the spread to elsewhere.”
The quarantine in Hubei dwarfs previous efforts in other parts of the world.
In Liberia in 2014, an impoverished neighborhood of about 70,000 people was
shut off during an Ebola outbreak, triggering violent riots. As the
lockdown continues with no end in sight, it’s raising ethical and legal
questions.
CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS
Medical supplies at a makeshift hospital converted from an exhibition center
in Wuhan, Feb. 3.Photographer: AFP via Getty Images
“The lockdown may be necessary to contain the spread of the virus, but you
have to ensure there’s enough medical resources to meet the demand for care
in those cities,” said Zhang Qianfan, a professor at Peking University Law
School. “The lockdown shouldn’t mean the city gets deserted and people
are left to survive or die on their own.”
Top Priority
Reports of potentially preventable deaths in Hubei exacerbated by the
quarantine restrictions have been coursing through China, said Yanzhong
Huang, director of the Center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall
University in New Jersey, and a senior fellow for global health at the
Council on Foreign Relations.
Comparing the “draconian measures” in Hubei to the mass surveillance
prevalent in China that would seem intolerable to many in the west, he said:
“If you ask Chinese people, 8 out of 9 will say they can live with that.”
In the days after the quarantine order, China’s government sent medical
assistance into the province, while maintaining restrictions on people
leaving.
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More than 8,000 medical workers from across the country have gone into Hubei
, mostly to the 27 hospitals in Wuhan designated for treating coronavirus
patients. The rest have fanned out to smaller cities nearby. Two new
hospitals, with 2,600 beds in total, were completed in 10 days, built by
more than 2,000 migrant workers, while stadiums, offices and hotels are
being converted into isolation units.
But hospitals in Hubei are still short of supplies, said a doctor working in
the testing department at the Wuhan Tongji hospital. He also declined to
give his name on concern he’d face backlash.
TOPSHOT-CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS
Workers set up beds at an exhibition center that was converted into a
hospital in Wuhan, Feb. 4.Photographer: AFP via Getty Images
“Things are improving, but we are really over-loaded and running diagnostic
tests 24-7, and still struggle to complete them,” the doctor said on
Tuesday. “I think we have not reached the peak of infections yet.”
No Blame
For those seeking help and medical care in Hubei, resignation has set in --
there has been markedly little unrest in the province despite the
circumstances. The idea of sacrificing one’s self for a greater, national
goal is deeply-embedded in Chinese culture, and is invoked by the country’s
leaders in times of hardship.
Daily Life In Wuhan During Lockdown
A worker rests at a makeshift hospital in Wuhan, Feb. 4.Photographer: Getty
Images
People are queuing for eight hours just to get tested for the coronavirus,
said the college graduate, John Chen, who’s 23. His feverish mother is yet
to be tested.
“At first I was upset that the hospitals and officials I called for help
weren’t willing to do their job, but later I realized that it’s not that
they are unwilling to help, but that everywhere is way too short of
resources,” he said.
“I don’t blame anyone, because if you grow up in China, you learn that’s
how the system works.”
— With assistance by Claire Che, Dandan Li, Dong Lyu, Rachel Chang, and
Iain Marlow | v**e
发帖数: 8422 | 2 this time is HuBei, next time could be Taiwan | p***n
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: this time is HuBei, next time could be Taiwan
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