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发帖数: 4825 | 1 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/trump-coronavirus-economy-127679
‘I don’t want to use the b-word’: Trump aides race to rescue the economy
Trump aides are studying the nation’s response after 9/11 and during the
2008-09 crisis to design an aid package for an economy quickly slamming the
brakes in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
The Trump administration is scrambling to prop up industries crumbling under
the weight of the novel coronavirus outbreak.
Just don’t call it a “bailout” around any White House officials or
Republicans on Capitol Hill.
President Donald Trump’s top aides are racing to design a wide-ranging
government rescue of major sectors of the economy — such as airlines,
hospitality and other service industries — amid a collapsing stock market
and cascading shutdowns of major sports events, Broadway shows, museums and
amusement parks.
Behind the scenes, the Treasury Department and top economic officials are
exploring ways to help out industries struggling financially from a rapid
shutdown. They’re leaning toward some type of tax relief or deferring tax
payments to provide an initial cushion — hoping to avoid a full-fledged
bailout akin to the 2008 banking rescue that could prove difficult to clear
past the Republican base.
“I don’t want to use the b-word,” said one senior administration official
, who acknowledged the White House is looking at resources necessary —
including tax relief or direct injections of funds — to offset the downturn
in industries and businesses with thousands of affected employees.
“If what the airline industry says is true, then Congress really will have
little choice to act or face a significant extinction moment for the airline
industry,” the official added.
Trump addresses the nation from the Oval Office on coronavirus
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Trump hinted at such a move in his Oval Office address on Wednesday night,
saying he had asked Treasury to defer tax payments for businesses and
individuals hurt by the coronavirus, using emergency authority. “This
action will provide more than $200 billion of additional liquidity to the
economy,” he told Americans.
The discussions about saving U.S. businesses are separate from an ongoing
debate among lawmakers and Trump officials about a stimulus program that
would directly aid American workers.
In recent weeks, as the coronavirus spread across the globe, the White House
has been holding calls with industry leaders to hear about their mounting
challenges. Trump or Vice President Mike Pence have also met at the White
House with banking and health insurance executives, representatives from
pharmaceutical companies, and airline CEOs.
Allowing these industries to defer paying taxes would leave them additional
cash reserves to hopefully make it through any economic downturn or
prolonged lockdown due to coronavirus fears, said Stephen Moore, a
distinguished visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation and an informal
economic adviser to the Trump campaign in 2016.
The quandary is who deserves the most help.
“The problem I have with this is every industry is negatively impacted,”
Moore said. “Is it going to be hotels, movie theaters, airlines?”
“I have a problem with singling out certain industries at this point. I don
’t like the idea of picking winners and losers,” Moore said, adding that
White House aides shared the same concern. “If you do it for some, then how
could you not do it for everyone?”
The hospitality and leisure industry, for example, accounts for about 11
percent of total employment over the past 20 years, according to economists
at Wells Fargo Securities.
After 9/11, employment in that sector fell at a rate of roughly 13 percent,
while the SARS scare in 2003 also contributed to a temporary hit to the
sector, the Wells Fargo economists noted.
Analysts are closely watching employment in hospitality, transportation,
food services and manufacturing — which may experience declines due to
interruptions in the supply chain — for similarly large hits to business in
the coming days.
Trump economic aides have been studying the way President George W. Bush
propped up the airline industry after 9/11 for potential clues to how to
respond.
Lobbyists for the airlines said last week it was too early for moves like an
airline stabilization board. At the time they were just waiting for
Congress to pass its roughly $8 billion package, which Trump signed last
Friday, providing immediate support for the public health response.
Since then, coronavirus has spread rapidly over the past week in the U.S.,
upending local communities, large gatherings, schools and businesses. Major
companies from coast to coast have asked their employees to work from home,
and federal agencies have been testing out their own telework capabilities.
CORONAVIRUS: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Democrats failed to pass a massive emergency aid package for Americans
affected by the coronavirus Thursday, but hoped to get it through by Friday.
States Affected: 46 | U.S Cases: 1,663 | U.S. Deaths: 40
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The White House has struggled to stay on top of the fast-moving nature of
the coronavirus outbreak. The administration’s health officials have been
criticized for their inability to ensure hospital and doctors have enough
tests for all Americans who exhibit potential symptoms of the virus, while
the president has been eager to contain the count of coronavirus cases as
well as to support an economy and stock market in an increasingly precarious
state — a key to Trump’s reelection prospects.
In addition to providing relief for affected businesses, Trump also wants
Congress to pass paid leave for hourly workers and a suspension of payroll
taxes. The latter idea is unlikely to be included in any near-term package,
given the tepid reception it has received from Democratic and Republican
senators. The Tax Foundation estimates that suspending the entire payroll
tax for the duration of the year would cost $950 billion — adding to the
federal debt.
Trump has told aides he wants to go “big” on providing the economy with
fiscal stimulus measures.
“We’re also making sure that the companies which are good companies stay
solvent, have the money necessary to keep functioning,” he told reporters
in the Oval Office on Thursday. “We have a lot of things that we’re
working on with the financial markets, and it’s going to work out fine.”
In the meantime, industries like the airlines and hotels are staying in
close touch with the White House, aides say, as more and more of the country
starts to stay home as much as possible.
“The worry is very straightforward: Anything that looks like a bailout will
divide the Republican Party. Hardcore conservatives believe bailouts are
antithetical to the way risk should be managed in the economy,” said one
Republican close to the White House. “They want it to look like relief —
but not a bailout.” | B*Q
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