S**********p
发帖数: 331 | 1 If you’re a world leader, you may be wondering how to prepare for a Joe
Biden win in November’s U.S. presidential election. If you aren’t thinking
about this, maybe a look at Donald Trump’s latest polling numbers in key
battlegrounds will get you going. And if you’ve spent the last 3 ½
years sucking up to Trump, you really, really need to prepare a Biden game
plan, because aides to the former vice president have long memories.
But first, an introduction: I’m Nahal Toosi, foreign affairs correspondent
at POLITICO, and I’m filling in this week for the illustrious Ryan Heath. I
’ve never written a newsletter before, so this could get a little weird.
I recently asked my personal brain trust (a mix of policy, political and
diplomatic gurus, including a few Biden campaign advisers) how the rest of
the world should prepare for a Biden presidency. Few answered the question
directly -- and all insisted they’re not ruling out a Trump win -- but some
nuggets from the conversations stood out:
TRUST ISSUES: People expect Biden to embrace alliances and multilateral
agreements that Trump spurned, from NATO to the Paris climate deal. But they
harbor doubts about long-term U.S. reliability: What if the next GOP
president reverses everything Biden does? It won’t be enough for Biden to
win, an Asian diplomat said. To re-establish global trust in the U.S. brand,
Republican lawmakers need to show some unity on foreign policy with the
Biden team, he said. Maybe Biden could even appoint a Republican to his
Cabinet? And ideally, the diplomat added, “We’d like to have Senate
confirmation of agreements.”
POINT OF LEVERAGE: Some countries may try to use that lack of trust in
America as leverage, people close to the Biden campaign concede. Iran, for
one, may demand that the U.S. pay it reparations on top of lifting sanctions
for it to fully comply once again with the Iran nuclear deal that Trump
abandoned. The Palestinians, too, may insist that a Biden-led U.S. make up
for the loss of financial aid they suffered under Trump, and then some. It’
s easy to imagine America’s European allies not coming to America’s
defense in such cases. But if Biden appears too conciliatory, even to allies
, Republicans are sure to use that against him. Remember the whole apology
tours thing?
SEE ME, MAYBE? If you want to perplex global affairs nerds, ask which
foreign country Biden should visit first as president. A country in Europe,
some said, citing the need to repair a transatlantic relationship battered
by Trump. Mexico, countered others, arguing Biden needs to mend ties with a
neighbor and key trading partner while also presenting a more humane vision
of immigration policy. One person (the Asian diplomat again) stood out with
this idea: Biden should first visit the United Nations, sending a signal
about his commitment to multilateralism without favoring any one country. A
former European ambassador, meanwhile, said that upon taking office, one of
Biden’s first phone calls must be to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, if only to
say this is “an important relationship. We have to set it straight.”
LOOKING OUT FOR NO. 2: Many foreign officials expect Biden to leave office
after one term, so there’s lots of interest in his pick for vice president.
Much depends on who that is, but there’s every expectation that person —
a woman, Biden has pledged — will run for the White House as early as 2024.
Some of the rumored candidates have little to no international experience.
For now, the Biden campaign is restricting its contacts with foreign
officials. Once those limits are lifted, expect diplomats to rush to meet
his No. 2.
A FRUSTRATING FRIEND: Should Israel’s Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu call Biden
if he wins? Yes. Will Biden answer? Yes. Will Netanyahu like everything he
says? Probably not. True, little is likely to change at the core of the U.S.
-Israel relationship, especially U.S. military support for Israel. Biden and
Netanyahu also have been friends a long time. But within the Democratic
party, there’s growing frustration over Israel’s treatment of the
Palestinians, deepened by Netanyahu’s desire to annex parts of the West
Bank. And neither Biden nor his aides can forget Netanyahu’s efforts to
undermine Barack Obama’s Iran policy, nor how the Israeli leader has cozied
up to Trump. If Biden makes an early move to restore the Iran nuclear deal
and Netanyahu publicly fights it, Biden will be furious, a person familiar
with the issue told POLITICO. Added one Democratic strategist: “Bibi has
some atoning to do.”
NOTA BENE: Progressives are pressuring Biden to hire aides who meet certain
principles — some might call it a purity test — including having opposed
covert operations that harmed civilians. Biden is unlikely to meet all their
demands, but that rift in the party is something to watch. | g**********1
发帖数: 1 | 2 在美国解决疮2.0重返白宫的问题之前，没人会押宝给白灯政府。 | l**a
发帖数: 11 | 3 选举日 拜登胜利是不够的
外界得确认：
拜登可以顺利登基
拜登可以控制军队
拜登可以应付国会
拜登可以压制红波
拜登历经坎坷，初心还在
这个checklist 难度依次上升，四年不够。他的身体能干第二任吗。 | m**********s
发帖数: 518 | |
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