d*******n
发帖数: 63 | 1 Link： https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml
Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island
By Franz Gayl
Published: Apr 27, 2021 01:45 PM
Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. /CGTN Photo
Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. Photo:CGTN
It would seem to some that a US war with China over the island of Taiwan
appears imminent.
Considering the congestion of hostile forces in, above, and below the Taiwan
Straits and South China Sea, conflict could explode by accident or design.
Once blood is drawn, the US will have few options. If the US elects to fight
China over the island of Taiwan, then it will lose.
Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) independence hubris is
fueled by US cabinet-level China hawks and Congress' bipartisan, bicameral
Taiwan Caucus. The DPP has rejected political reunification in one China and
dismissed the "one country, two systems" model under which both Taiwan and
Hong Kong have gotten rich. Encouraged by US trivialization of the three
joint communiqués, the DPP parades a sense of entitlement, taking for
granted an umbrella of protection with full knowledge of the dire
consequences for the US
The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) may not have been intended to give birth to
Taiwan's renegade secessionists, but it has done exactly that.
The DPP's champions in the US Congress dismiss omens of fanatical China grit
on the topic of Taiwan. China-bashing and Taiwan-coveting rhetoric forms an
echo chamber reminiscent of the groupthink-led American Friends of Vietnam
(AFV) lobby that pressured the US to commit to the Vietnam War killing 60,
000 American patriots before the US disgracefully abandoned its ally.
But the Chinese are different. China's history of the whole-of-society
commitment to core national security priorities is legendary. The rebellions
and unrests in the 19th century cost millions of Chinese lives. Twentieth
century Chinese civil war losses ranged between 5 and 8 million, and 360,000
Chinese died in Korea, while routing and humiliating US and UN forces. In
each case, the dynasties emerged stronger.
The US Congress' interests in Taiwan are deeply conflicted, better said
corrupt. The reciprocal relationship between defense lobbyists, industry
contributions, and a Caucus Member's reelectability is well documented. The
bipartisan support for increasing arms sales to Taiwan and even larger
defense expenditures on the US Indo-Pacific Command are logical and
transparent as all parties profit from the tension and war.
Many Americans assume China's citizenry longs for a liberal democracy like
that on the island of Taiwan, and that war will trigger popular revolt. But
the Taiwan question is not an ideological dispute. Rather it is a raw and
painful open wound in China's civilizational identity. Today, US othering of
Chinese only fuels a fierce nationalism in its 1.4 billion citizens. China
has a traditional self-narrative wherein the preservation of face and
enforcement of sovereignty are inseparable.
All the while the balance of power has shifted fundamentally. The US would
be wise to regard China as a peer superpower, if only due to her casualty-
tolerance - China's decisive advantage in any fight with the US. China also
shares a binding mutual defense treaty with North Korea, and the depths of
its friendship and security bonds with Russia should never be underestimated
.
The US can think whatever it wants about China's ideology, culture, Xinjiang
and Hong Kong policies, and sovereign claims to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and
surrounding seas. But, whether the US likes it or not, those are ultimately
China's internal affairs.
As for DPP claims of the Province of Taiwan's non-Chinese identity, they are
historical fiction. Fate made them Chinese just as fate made us Americans.
We also know that the free will choice to carve out a territory and people
from an existing nation incurs a steep price, one the Confederacy paid not
long ago.
The US has never paid an existential price for violating another nation's
sovereignty, leading to our smug sense of military invincibility. However,
with Taiwan being a core Chinese priority, that would be a fatal
miscalculation. Still, the US counts on regional allies to share the pain.
Yet some will have blood debts to pay if they engage in China's civil war.
For example, India was bloodied badly in the 1960s for testing China's
territorial resolve. Japan's humiliating 50-year occupation of Taiwan and
the Rape of Nanjing also remain fresh, unforgettable wounds for China. The
US allies will definitely think twice before militarily intervening in China
's unresolved civil war and internal affairs.
The US could advise Taiwan's secessionists to peaceably accept "one country,
two systems" and cease its "independence" ambitions. If they don't stop
their rhetoric, the US president could rescind the TRA, as baiting China to
force reunification is of the DPP's own choosing. If Congress obstructs TRA
recension, the US president could order all national security agencies to
stand down in cross-Straits conflicts, keeping our powder dry for actual
existential threats in the future.
In the end, the prosperous Taiwan people will make every effort to wag the
American dog. But Taiwan's fate poses no existential threat to the US, and
the US should not fall into the trap of paying for their hubris with
American blood. However, in view of the violent political polarization of
the US at home, an ill-advised foreign war with no path to victory would
only serve to accelerate America's decline.
The author is a retired Marine Corps infantry officer who now serves as a US
civil servant in the Pentagon. Opinions are of the author and do not
represent the US government. [email protected] | m*****e
发帖数: 1506 | 2 退役高参
不代表政府立场
Taiwan
【在 d*******n 的大作中提到】
: Link： https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml
: Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island
: By Franz Gayl
: Published: Apr 27, 2021 01:45 PM
:
: Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. /CGTN Photo
: Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. Photo:CGTN
: It would seem to some that a US war with China over the island of Taiwan
: appears imminent.
: Considering the congestion of hostile forces in, above, and below the Taiwan
| f*******y
发帖数: 470 | 3 还行，看着不像跟国会哭穷要钱的
Taiwan
【在 d*******n 的大作中提到】
: Link： https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml
: Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island
: By Franz Gayl
: Published: Apr 27, 2021 01:45 PM
:
: Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. /CGTN Photo
: Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. Photo:CGTN
: It would seem to some that a US war with China over the island of Taiwan
: appears imminent.
: Considering the congestion of hostile forces in, above, and below the Taiwan
| d*******n
发帖数: 63 | 4 目前还在国防部上班
【在 m*****e 的大作中提到】
: 退役高参
: 不代表政府立场
:
: Taiwan
| d*******n
发帖数: 63 | 5 目前还在国防部上班
【在 m*****e 的大作中提到】
: 退役高参
: 不代表政府立场
:
: Taiwan
| m**********g
发帖数: 919 | 6 混球时报扯个鸡巴。
【在 d*******n 的大作中提到】
: 目前还在国防部上班
| k********7
发帖数: 1 | 7 美国的有识之士。
但是DC的政客是不会听有识之士的政策建议的，他们要的是compaign contribution，
要的是anti-China rhetoric上电视骗美国屁民的选票，至于国运啦，美国兵的命啦，
他们才don't give a fuck！ | l*******t
发帖数: 1430 | 8 现在想让步到一国两只？晚了，我憋move on了 | l**p
发帖数: 6080 | 9 政客已经纳粹化
为数不多的少数族裔无法融入到纳粹化之中
【在 k********7 的大作中提到】
: 美国的有识之士。
: 但是DC的政客是不会听有识之士的政策建议的，他们要的是compaign contribution，
: 要的是anti-China rhetoric上电视骗美国屁民的选票，至于国运啦，美国兵的命啦，
: 他们才don't give a fuck！
| W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 10 这个属于叛国最吧？
【在 d*******n 的大作中提到】
: 目前还在国防部上班
| W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 11 民主国家的通病
【在 k********7 的大作中提到】
: 美国的有识之士。
: 但是DC的政客是不会听有识之士的政策建议的，他们要的是compaign contribution，
: 要的是anti-China rhetoric上电视骗美国屁民的选票，至于国运啦，美国兵的命啦，
: 他们才don't give a fuck！
| C**o
发帖数: 10373 | 12 翻译一下，印发全美下室
盹盹盹
：Link： https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml
：Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island
：By Franz Gayl
：Published: Apr 27, 2021 01:45 PM
：
：Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. /CGTN Photo
：Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. Photo:CGTN
：It would seem to some that a US war with China over the island of Taiwan
：appears imminent.
：Considering the congestion of hostile forces in, above, and below the
Taiwan Straits and South China Sea, conflict could explode by accident or
design. Once blood is drawn, the US will have few options. If the US elects
to fight China over the island of Taiwan, then it will lose.
：..........
【在 d*******n 的大作中提到】
: 目前还在国防部上班
| k********7
发帖数: 1 | 13 所以说袭主席提出的四个自信我是高度认同的。
“中国特色社会主义道路自信、理论自信、制度自信、文化自信”，提得很好。
【在 W*****B 的大作中提到】
: 民主国家的通病
| p******t
发帖数: 1 | | e****i
发帖数: 393 | 15 傻逼在台海搞局部战争还以为会赢？
唯一的希望是来一次全面常规战争，但是难的是怎么不往核战争方向发展。 | d*******n
发帖数: 63 | 16 其实没人打得起和中国的全面常规战争，他们为了台湾准备死多少人？
中国死多少人也会打到底。
【在 e****i 的大作中提到】
: 傻逼在台海搞局部战争还以为会赢？
: 唯一的希望是来一次全面常规战争，但是难的是怎么不往核战争方向发展。
| f********g
发帖数: 32 | 17 这个估计不是国防部主流。蔡英文东进计划，已经派了不少台湾女性特工渗透美弟国防
部。 | o*******t
发帖数: 1 | 18
村支书突然对你提出肛交要求是看得起你，你不要给脸不要脸。你的菊花不给村支书爆
，还要留给谁爆？
盹盹盹
【在 C**o 的大作中提到】
: 翻译一下，印发全美下室
: 盹盹盹
:
: ：Link： https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml
: ：Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island
: ：By Franz Gayl
: ：Published: Apr 27, 2021 01:45 PM
: ：
: ：Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. /CGTN Photo
: ：Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017. Photo:CGTN
| d*******n
发帖数: 63 | 19 变成国防部主流都是在美国民意成熟之后。
现在的一般美国民众都还是认为美国军队天下第一，想打谁就打谁。
目前不断出现的放弃台湾和代价太大打不赢中国声音就是在开始改变民意了。
【在 f********g 的大作中提到】
: 这个估计不是国防部主流。蔡英文东进计划，已经派了不少台湾女性特工渗透美弟国防
: 部。
| o*******t
发帖数: 1 | 20 美军也不都是傻逼，有几个人愿意为了台巴子去送命
【在 d*******n 的大作中提到】
: 变成国防部主流都是在美国民意成熟之后。
: 现在的一般美国民众都还是认为美国军队天下第一，想打谁就打谁。
: 目前不断出现的放弃台湾和代价太大打不赢中国声音就是在开始改变民意了。
| d*******n
发帖数: 63 | 21 是啊，你就看看现在仇恨亚裔的态度，你就知道没有几个人愿意为了台巴子去送命。
美国就是希望台湾自己和大陆开战，哈哈。
【在 o*******t 的大作中提到】
: 美军也不都是傻逼，有几个人愿意为了台巴子去送命
| d*c
发帖数: 1 | |
|
