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发帖数: 4637 | 1 年轻男性新冠感染心肌炎风险比疫苗高6倍。
Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A
Population-Based Analysis
Mendel E Singer, Ira B Taub, David C Kaelber
PMID: 34341797 PMCID: PMC8328065 DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998
Free PMC article
Abstract
Background: There have been recent reports of myocarditis (including
myocarditis, pericarditis or myopericarditis) as a side-effect of mRNA-based
COVID-19 vaccines, particularly in young males. Less information is
available regarding the risk of myocarditis from COVID-19 infection itself.
Such data would be helpful in developing a complete risk-benefit analysis
for this population.
Methods: A de-identified, limited data set was created from the TriNetX
Research Network, aggregating electronic health records from 48 mostly large
U.S. Healthcare Organizations (HCOs). Inclusion criteria were a first COVID
-19 diagnosis during the April 1, 2020 - March 31, 2021 time period, with an
outpatient visit 1 month to 2 years before, and another 6 months to 2 years
before that. Analysis was stratified by sex and age (12-17, 12-15, 16-19).
Patients were excluded for any prior cardiovascular condition. Primary
outcome was an encounter diagnosis of myocarditis within 90 days following
the index date. Rates of COVID-19 cases and myocarditis not identified in
the system were estimated and the results adjusted accordingly. Wilson score
intervals were used for 95% confidence intervals due to the very low
probability outcome.
Results: For the 12-17-year-old male cohort, 6/6,846 (0.09%) patients
developed myocarditis overall, with an adjusted rate per million of 876
cases (Wilson score interval 402 - 1,911). For the 12-15 and 16-19 male age
groups, the adjusted rates per million were 601 (257 - 1,406) and 561 (240 -
1,313).For 12-17-year-old females, there were 3 (0.04%) cases of
myocarditis of 7,361 patients. The adjusted rate was 213 (73 - 627) per
million cases. For the 12-15- and 16-19-year-old female cohorts the adjusted
rates per million cases were 235 (64 - 857) and 708 (359 - 1,397). The
outcomes occurred either within 5 days (40.0%) or from 19-82 days (60.0%).
Conclusions: Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary
COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young
males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to
develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine. | s*****r
发帖数: 11545 | 2 问题是感染新冠的几率可以通过自律降低至六分之一以下 |
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