w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 1 似乎乌克兰的空军没出现
基本被打掉了？
占领基辅机场可能只是为了吸引分散乌军注意力
现在的主要目的可能是
为2个独立区解困
和
为克里米亚解决水源
https://news.am/eng/news/688515.html
The withdrawal of Russian troops to Kherson enabled the unblocking of the
North Crimean Canal and the restoration of water supply to the Crimean
peninsula, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov
said on Thursday, RIA Novosti reported.
"The joint use of raid detachments and airborne troops in the Crimean
direction has ensured the access of Russian troops to the city of Kherson.
This made it possible to unblock the North Crimean canal and restore water
supply to the Crimean peninsula," he said.
TASS quoted the Russian Defence Ministry as saying that as a result of the
strikes by the Russian Armed Forces, 83 ground facilities of Ukraine's
military infrastructure have been disabled.
ADVERTISING
Since the start of the operation, two Su-27s, two Su-24s, one helicopter and
four Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been shot down.
Troops of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics have broken through the
Ukrainian armed forces' echeloned defence, advancing 6-8 km. | x****o
发帖数: 29677 | 2 不可能占领机场分散注意力
那低空突袭和那些伞兵都去送死？
占领机场是判断二毛没有军备能力，没了机场就没了支援 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 3
显然俄国并没有占领居中地区的打算
我说的是基辅机场
那里是很单独的入军
占领机场最有效
离开是不难的
【在 x****o 的大作中提到】
: 不可能占领机场分散注意力
: 那低空突袭和那些伞兵都去送死？
: 占领机场是判断二毛没有军备能力，没了机场就没了支援
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | s*********2
发帖数: 1572 | 6 CNN记者都懵逼了，离基辅这么近竟然是大毛的军队。我就看外面的老逼将军事专家怎
么分析。
【在 w********9 的大作中提到】
: 运兵直升机把数百俄国士兵运到基辅机场地区
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 7 显然在东部以外，地面上没打什么仗 （东部可能也没啥大战斗）
在涅河最南部
俄军也通过运兵直升机把人送过去
（还有坦克从克里米亚开了进去） | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 8 从视频看，
在基辅机场附近和涅河南边的Kherson军事基地附近
乌克兰军队并没什么大的抵抗
俄军进去得很容易 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 9 从白俄罗斯和克里米亚
坦克或/和军车
无阻碍开入
乌克兰 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 10 我查了一圈
从找到的视频看
战斗都很零星
乌克兰的边境军人基本没有抵抗
乌克兰的防空系统可能基本被打掉了，看起来已经没了系统
乌克兰的空军可能基本没了，看不到什么影子 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 12
more
【在 w********9 的大作中提到】
: 运兵直升机把数百俄国士兵运到基辅机场地区
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 16 一天前
中国未来媳妇
奔赴家乡战区
开始一段新生活 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 17 俄军在基辅
逼近
城中的第五纵队战友
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-attack-
a05e7c4563ac94b963134bba83187d46
Russia presses invasion to outskirts of Ukrainian capital
By YURAS KARMANAU, JIM HEINTZ, VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV and DASHA LITVINOVA
5 minutes ago
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia pressed its invasion of Ukraine to the
outskirts of the capital Friday after unleashing airstrikes on cities and
military bases and sending in troops and tanks from three sides in an attack
that could rewrite the global post-Cold War security order.
Explosions sounded before dawn in Kyiv as Western leaders scheduled an
emergency meeting and Ukraine’s president pleaded for international help.
The nature of the explosions was not immediately clear, but the blasts came
amid signs that the capital and largest Ukrainian city was increasingly
threatened following a day of fighting that left more than 100 Ukrainians
dead.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government had information
that “subversive groups” were encroaching on the city, and U.S. Secretary
of State Antony Blinken said Kyiv “could well be under siege” in what U.S.
officials believe is a brazen attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin
to dismantle the government and replace it with his own regime. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 18 接上
机械化部队已经到达基辅边缘
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers on a phone call that
Russian mechanized forces that entered from Belarus were about 20 miles from
Kyiv, according to a person familiar with the call.
The assault, anticipated for weeks by the U.S. and Western allies and
undertaken by Putin in the face of international condemnation and cascading
sanctions, amounts to the largest ground war in Europe since World War II.
As Russian missiles bombarded cities and military bases, government leaders
pleaded for help and for powerful sanctions against Russia. Civilians piled
into trains and cars to flee and patrons of a hotel were directed into a
shelter as explosions sounded in Kyiv.
Already, Ukraine officials said they had lost control of the decommissioned
Chernobyl nuclear power plant, scene of the world’s worst nuclear disaster.
“Russia has embarked on a path of evil, but Ukraine is defending itself and
won’t give up its freedom,” Zelenskyy tweeted. His grasp on power
increasingly tenuous, he pleaded Thursday for even more severe sanctions
than the ones imposed by Western allies and ordered a full military
mobilization that would last 90 days.
Zelenskyy said in a video address that 137 “heroes,” including 10 military
officers, had been killed and 316 people wounded. The dead included border
guards on the Zmiinyi Island in the Odesa region, which was taken over by
Russians.
He concluded an emotional speech by saying that “the fate of the country
depends fully on our army, security forces, all of our defenders.” He also
said the country had heard from Moscow that ”they want to talk about
Ukraine’s neutral status.”
Biden was to meet Friday morning with fellow leaders of NATO governments in
what the White House described as an “extraordinary virtual summit” to
disuss Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced new sanctions against Russia, saying
Putin “chose this war” and had exhibited a “sinister” view of the world
in which nations take what they want by force. Other nations also announced
sanctions, or said they would shortly.
“It was always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire by
any means necessary — by bullying Russia’s neighbors through coercion and
corruption, by changing borders by force, and, ultimately, by choosing a war
without a cause,” Biden said.
Blinken said in television interviews that he was convinced that Russia was
intent on overthrowing the Ukrainian government, telling CBS that Putin
wants to “reconstitute the Soviet empire.”
Fearing a Russian attack on the capital city, thousands of people went deep
underground as night fell, jamming Kyiv’s subway stations.
At times it felt almost cheerful. Families ate dinner. Children played.
Adults chatted. People brought sleeping bags or dogs or crossword puzzles —
anything to alleviate the waiting and the long night ahead.
ADVERTISEMENT
But the exhaustion was clear on many faces. And the worries.
“Nobody believed that this war would start and that they would take Kyiv
directly,” said Anton Mironov, waiting out the night in one of the old
Soviet metro stations. “I feel mostly fatigue. None of it feels real.”
The invasion began early Thursday with a series of missile strikes, many on
key government and military installations, quickly followed by a three-
pronged ground assault. Ukrainian and U.S. officials said Russian forces
were attacking from the east toward Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city;
from the southern region of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014; and from
Belarus to the north.
Zelenskyy, who had earlier cut diplomatic ties with Moscow and declared
martial law, appealed to global leaders, saying that “if you don’t help us
now, if you fail to offer a powerful assistance to Ukraine, tomorrow the
war will knock on your door.”
Though Biden said he had no plans to speak with Putin, the Russian leader
did have what the Kremlin described as a “serious and frank exchange” with
French President Emmanuel Macron.
Both sides claimed to have destroyed some of the other’s aircraft and
military hardware, though little of that could be confirmed.
Hours after the invasion began, Russian forces seized control of the now-
unused Chernobyl plant and its surrounding exclusion zone after a fierce
battle, presidential adviser Myhailo Podolyak told The Associated Press.
The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said it was told by
Ukraine of the takeover, adding that there had been “no casualties or
destruction at the industrial site.”
The 1986 disaster occurred when a nuclear reactor at the plant 130
kilometers (80 miles) north of Kyiv exploded, sending a radioactive cloud
across Europe. The damaged reactor was later covered by a protective shell
to prevent leaks.
Alyona Shevtsova, adviser to the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces,
wrote on Facebook that staff members at the Chernobyl plant had been “taken
hostage.” The White House said it was “outraged” by reports of the
detentions.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense issued an update saying that though the
plant was “likely captured,” the country’s forces had halted Russia’s
advance toward Chernihiv and that it was unlikely that Russia had achieved
its planned Day One military objectives.
The chief of the NATO alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said the “brutal act of
war” shattered peace in Europe, joining a chorus of world leaders decrying
an attack that could cause massive casualties and topple Ukraine’s
democratically elected government. The conflict shook global financial
markets: Stocks plunged and oil prices soared amid concerns that heating
bills and food prices would skyrocket.
Condemnation came not only from the U.S. and Europe, but from South Korea,
Australia and beyond — and many governments readied new sanctions. Even
friendly leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban sought to distance themselves
from Putin.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he aimed to cut off Russia from
the U.K.’s financial markets as he announced sanctions, freezing the assets
of all large Russian banks and planning to bar Russian companies and the
Kremlin from raising money on British markets.
“Now we see him for what he is — a bloodstained aggressor who believes in
imperial conquest,” Johnson said of Putin.
The U.S. sanctions will target Russian banks, oligarchs, state-controlled
companies and high-tech sectors, Biden said, but they were designed not to
disrupt global energy markets. Russian oil and natural gas exports are vital
energy sources for Europe.
Zelenskyy urged the U.S. and West to go further and cut the Russians from
the SWIFT system, a key financial network that connects thousands of banks
around the world. The White House has been reluctant to immediately cut
Russia from SWIFT, worried it could cause enormous economic problems in
Europe and elsewhere in the West.
While some nervous Europeans speculated about a possible new world war, the
U.S. and its NATO partners have shown no indication they would send troops
into Ukraine, fearing a larger conflict. NATO reinforced its members in
Eastern Europe as a precaution, and Biden said the U.S. was deploying
additional forces to Germany to bolster NATO.
European authorities declared the country’s airspace an active conflict
zone.
After weeks of denying plans to invade, Putin launched the operation on a
country the size of Texas that has increasingly tilted toward the democratic
West and away from Moscow’s sway. The autocratic leader made clear earlier
this week that he sees no reason for Ukraine to exist, raising fears of
possible broader conflict in the vast space that the Soviet Union once ruled
. Putin denied plans to occupy Ukraine, but his ultimate goals remain hazy.
Ukrainians were urged to shelter in place and not to panic.
“Until the very last moment, I didn’t believe it would happen. I just
pushed away these thoughts,” said a terrified Anna Dovnya in Kyiv, watching
soldiers and police remove shrapnel from an exploded shell. “We have lost
all faith.”
With social media amplifying a torrent of military claims and counter-claims
, it was difficult to determine exactly what was happening on the ground.
Russia and Ukraine made competing claims about damage they had inflicted.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had destroyed scores of Ukrainian air
bases, military facilities and drones. It confirmed the loss of one of its
Su-25 attack jets, blaming “pilot error,” and said an An-26 transport
plane had crashed because of technical failure, killing the entire crew. It
did not say how many were aboard.
Russia said it was not targeting cities, but journalists saw destruction in
many civilian areas. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 19 上述文章来自
AP
美联社
如果是俄军信息战的一部分，那我也没话说
同时，多名菌斑将军们仍然在基辅机场周边追捕1天前出现的、现已弹尽粮绝的俄罗斯
帝国的空投兵
尤其那些胆敢逃入森林和杂树丛里的空头冰 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 20 综合2条重要的消息
1.菌斑被一些人流传的：乌军夺回基辅机场，几乎全部消灭了俄国的空投营
2.AP：俄国的机械化部队在距离基辅差不多同样距离的某个/些地方，还没有被灭
残余俄军已经没有退路，只有被谁移站了 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 21 俄国人最省钱省事的办法还是：打击重要军事目标。夺取并巩固克里米亚周边，扩大俩
独立区的范围并且驻军而保证独立区的安全 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 22 过去一段时间
我与某个特别热衷乌克兰的人讨论过一些
列举过实际情况：
双方装备和火力相差极大
说过特别重要的一点：”乌克兰很快就没了空军“
因此陆军就会特别容易成为被空中打击（和地面打/轰击）的目标
要快速调动地面力量基本不可能了
现在的情况是：
俄罗斯主要通过轰毁油库的方式让乌克兰基本上没有了空军
心理战和信息战/宣传战也是作战的一部分
因此网络上有些东西是假的
有些东西可能只是希望性的改造/编造
从现在双方已经公布的伤亡和地面装备损失情况看，
在第一天里，较近距离的接触性战斗只是比较杂，大的战斗还是不多 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 23 俄国无法设定最终的目标
但是要重点控制的地区肯定是有的
乌军兵力相对有限，装备更是差了很多。要“长期”控制现在还有的地区是个世界难题。
俄国短时最想获利的地区已经被控制。那就是克里米亚正北边的大片地区，包括去
kherson和melitol的3公路。基本是很轻松就开到了第涅河岸。kherson的对岸对odessa
方向的地区特别重要。俄军在那里大概想渡河控制一个地区。而其它地方很平静，没有
什么对俄军的阻碍。
乌军应该无法守住melitopol。俄军过了那里，下一个目标就是协同处理mariupol地区
。对mariupo的水陆攻击已经试探性开始。如果拿下mriupol地区，俄军就贯通了克里米
亚到独立区。如果失去maiupol，乌军想夺回基本不可能了，而且它也要考虑退路被较
快锁紧的可能。 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 24 俄军轻松抵达
有第涅普洱河上第二南的大桥
的地区？ | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 25
在头一天就过去了？
【在 w********9 的大作中提到】
: 俄军轻松抵达
: 有第涅普洱河上第二南的大桥
: 的地区？
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 26 在上述地区
俄军有大量军车在聚集
过河意愿强烈？
在视频的最后，俄国士兵才发现监控镜头
把它镜头对着地面了 | k*******r
发帖数: 16963 | 27 melitopol已经被俄军拿下
题。
odessa
【在 w********9 的大作中提到】
: 俄国无法设定最终的目标
: 但是要重点控制的地区肯定是有的
: 乌军兵力相对有限，装备更是差了很多。要“长期”控制现在还有的地区是个世界难题。
: 俄国短时最想获利的地区已经被控制。那就是克里米亚正北边的大片地区，包括去
: kherson和melitol的3公路。基本是很轻松就开到了第涅河岸。kherson的对岸对odessa
: 方向的地区特别重要。俄军在那里大概想渡河控制一个地区。而其它地方很平静，没有
: 什么对俄军的阻碍。
: 乌军应该无法守住melitopol。俄军过了那里，下一个目标就是协同处理mariupol地区
: 。对mariupo的水陆攻击已经试探性开始。如果拿下mriupol地区，俄军就贯通了克里米
: 亚到独立区。如果失去maiupol，乌军想夺回基本不可能了，而且它也要考虑退路被较
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 28
是的
可能20个小时之前就拿下了
网上比较可靠的视频大都传开得很晚
google也需要时间去对一大堆东西做ranking
【在 k*******r 的大作中提到】
: melitopol已经被俄军拿下
:
: 题。
: odessa
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 31 基辅东岸
Troyeshchyna
社区听到的枪声 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 33 在上述的kherson地区
俄军渡桥被严重打击 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 34 在10几个小时之前，俄军已经占据了第涅波儿河南边第一座大桥的西边
之前被乌军挡住后去了第二座桥（就是前面几个视频里提到的nova kakhovka）
然后才拿下第一座桥 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 35 俄军稳固大桥区后，可能会去攻通往Odessa的mykolaiv
网络上有视频显示：mykolaiv的一个大桥被部分毁坏
https://t.me/milinfolive/76982 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 36 此处有俄军控制地区的估计图
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-
russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022
February 25, 3:00 pm EST
Russian forces entered major Ukrainian cities—including Kyiv and Kherson—
for the first time on February 25. Russian forces’ main axes of advance
focused on Kyiv (successfully isolating the city on both banks of the Dnipro
River). Russian military operations along Ukraine’s northern border have
been less well-planned, organized, and conducted than those emanating from
Crimea. They have also been less successful so far. The divergence in
performance likely arises in part from differences in the composition and
organization of the Russian ground forces elements in the Western Military
District and Belarus (to Ukraine’s north) and Southern Military District
and Black Sea Fleet (to its south and east), as ISW has previously observed.
[1] Determined and well-organized Ukrainian resistance around Kyiv and
Kharkiv has also played an important role in preventing the Russian military
from advancing with the speed and success for which it had reportedly
planned.[2] The Russian military has deployed additional forces to
southeastern Belarus, likely beyond those Moscow had planned to use against
Ukraine, to offset these problems and challenges. Russian forces remain much
larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military, however.
Russia will likely defeat Ukrainian regular military forces and secure their
territorial objectives at some point in the coming days or weeks if Putin
is determined to do so and willing to pay the cost in blood and treasure.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro
on February 25. Russian sabotage groups in civilian clothes are reportedly
active in downtown Kyiv.
Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts.
Ukrainian forces have successfully slowed Russian troops, which have
temporarily abandoned the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and
are instead bypassing it.
Elements of the Russian 76th VDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in
southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward
Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours after
failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February 24.
Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or
envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to
do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the
verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that
Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed directly for Mykolaiv
and Odessa.
Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a new line of
advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
Click here to enlarge the map below.
Control of terrain map of Ukraine showing Russian lines of advance
Russian forces carried out additional air and missile strikes on Kyiv and
other major cities around 3:00 am local time on February 25. ISW cannot
confirm the frequency and targets of overnight Russian strikes at this time.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are increasingly
targeting civil infrastructure and residential buildings “to intimidate the
population of Ukraine.”[3] Russian forces continue to refrain from using
the likely full scale of Russian air and missile capabilities, likely
seeking to limit the negative imagery of heavy Ukrainian civilian casualties
. However, Russian forces will likely increase their use of bombardments in
coming days to overcome heavier-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance.
Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes, discussed in turn
below:
Belarus/Kyiv;
Kharkiv;
Donbas; and
Crimea-Kherson.
1) Belarus/Kyiv axis: Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on
the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian forces have so far
failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. They have abandoned for now the
failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and are instead bypassing it.
Elements of the 76thVDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in
southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward
Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces entered the northwest Kyiv suburb of Obolon, on the western
bank of the Dnipro River, as of 11:00 am local time.[4] The Ukrainian
General Staff asked residents of Obolon to shelter in place and make Molotov
cocktails the morning of February 25.[5] The Russian Ministry of Defense
claimed at 3:30 pm local time on February 25 that Russian forces had
isolated Kyiv from the west.[6]
Russian forces bypassed the city of Chernihiv on the eastern approach to
Kyiv after being halted by Ukrainian forces much of February 24-25.[7] The
UK Defense Ministry reported at 6:00 pm local time that Russian forces
opened a “new route” to Kyiv after failing to capture Chernihiv.[8]
Russian forces have not yet entered Kyiv’s eastern outskirts.
The Ukrainian general staff reported Russian VDV (airborne) troops
redeployed from Belarus to the east bank of the Dnipro River due to damage
to the Hostomel military airport on the western bank, now in Russian hands
after Ukrainian forces withdrew sometime early on February 25.[9] Russian
forces failed to secure Hostomel airport by air assault and appear to have
taken it only when mechanized units from Belarus arrived. Ukrainian
defenders appear to have damaged the runway enough to make it unusable,
preventing Russian forces from airlifting troops directly onto Kyiv’s
western flank and causing Russian forces to reprioritize the eastern axis of
advance.
Russian reconnaissance and sabotage units, many reportedly operating in
civilian clothes or captured Ukrainian uniforms, are reportedly active in
central Kyiv. A Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister reported Russian forces
seized two Ukrainian trucks to break through Ukrainian lines into central
Kyiv around noon local time.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff warned at 5:00
pm local time that Russian units in civilian clothes are operating in
several unspecified Ukrainian cities.[11]
President Zelensky, his Chief of Staff, and Prime Minister Shmyhal released
a video from downtown Kyiv at 8:00 pm local time on February 25 stating “we
are all here, defending our independence.”[12]
The Ukrainian military reported it redeployed unspecified units to assist in
the defense of Kyiv.[13] ISW cannot currently confirm the extent of
Ukrainian preparations to conduct urban fighting in Kyiv.
2) Kharkiv axis: Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkiv in the next
24 hours after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on
February 24. Russian forces are now advancing on a broad front along the
northeastern Ukrainian border as of February 25.
Kharkiv civil authorities reported Russian forces entering the outskirts of
Kharkiv from several directions at 9:00 pm local time.[14] Elements of
Russia’s 25th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, part of the 6th Combined
Arms Army and permanently deployed near St Petersburg, are confirmed to be
active in Kharkiv.[15]
Russian forces have reportedly crossed the northeastern Ukrainian border at
several other points both west of Kharkiv, including Okhtyrka and Sumy.[16]
Russian forces are likely advancing toward Kyiv on a broad front and may
seek to envelop and isolate Kharkiv.
3) Donbas axis: Russian forces have achieved little success on the
frontal assaults or the envelopment but may not have intended to do more
than pin Ukrainian forces in the east. The Russians have not weighted their
ground offensive efforts toward breaking through Ukrainian defensive
positions on the line of contact, taking Mariupol from the east, or driving
rapidly through Luhansk Oblast to the north. Ukrainian forces remain largely
in their original defensive positions in the east. The Russians may be
content to leave them there while concentrating on capturing Kyiv and
imposing a new government on Ukraine. They may alternatively seek to envelop
and destroy Ukrainian forces at and near the line of contact at a later
date.
Russian forces have been unable to continue an enveloping maneuver through
Donetsk Oblast as of 4:00 pm local time February 25.[17] They have not
apparently reinforced their efforts to do so, however, suggesting that they
may not be very determined to make rapid progress on this axis as long as
Ukrainian forces remain in defensive positions. Ukrainian forces report
undergoing continuous shelling.
Ukrainian forces claim to continue to hold the entire line of contact in
Donetsk and Luhansk as of 1pm local time February 25.[18]
Russian forces are likely conducting a frontal assault on Mariupol from the
northeast. The mayor of Mariupol claimed Ukrainian forces destroyed twenty-
two Russian tanks advancing from Pavlopil at 4:00 pm local time on February
25.[19] Russian sources reported shelling Mariupol with MLRS systems at 7:00
pm local time on February 25.[20]
4) Crimea axis: Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are
likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports
indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed
directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
Russian forces reportedly captured Kherson at 6:00 pm local time on February
25.[21] Elements of the Russian 42nd Motor Rifle Division of the 58th
Combined Arms Army and unknown VDV (Airborne) elements are confirmed to be
active in Kherson.[22]
Russian forces are advancing west of Kherson and reportedly bypassed it
early February 25 before its capture by follow-on Russian forces later in
the day. Ukrainian forces destroyed at least one bridge over the Dnipro to
slow Russian forces.[23] The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported Russian
forces are advancing on Mykolaiv.[24] ISW cannot confirm the current depth
of Russian advances.
Russian forces may have captured Melitopol, east of Crimea, late on February
25. Ukrainian forces reported defending the city at 10:00 am local time
February 25.[25] Russian forces claimed to have captured the city as of 6:00
pm local time.[26]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia is deploying second echelon
troops to Kherson on February 25. If confirmed, this is the first Russian
deployment of second-line troops into Ukrainian territory.[27]
ISW cannot confirm any Russian amphibious landings as of 3:00 pm EST.
Several Western sources misreported a quote from an anonymous US official
that there are indications of Russia’s capability to conduct an amphibious
assault west of Mariupol with thousands of troops as meaning a landing had
already occurred.[28] Russia may wait until forces from Crimea have fully
secured crossings over the Dnipro River or gotten closer to Odesa before
attempting to seize Odesa by air and sea.
Immediate items to watch
Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin,
Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new
line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain
the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.
Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of
air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active.
Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities
and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several
analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near
future.
Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its
current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces
defending them. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 37 https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253260.shtml
The Global Times on Saturday obtained satellite images from spacety, a
satellite data service provider, on some hot spots of the ongoing military
conflict in Ukraine, including the two major airports in Kiev and Kharkiv,
Ukraine air force base in Melitopol, and Odessa port.
Comparison of images taken before and after the crossfire between Russia and
Ukraine which broke out on Thursday showed more than 10 armored vehicles on
the runways of Kiev international airport as well as a large aircraft. The
airport cannot provide take-off and landing services, as the runways and
taxiways were occupied by the military vehicles. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 38 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/satellite-imagery-shows-russian-attack-on-
ukraine-from-space.html
Imagery from U.S. company Planet shows a dark plume of smoke rising from
Chuhuiv Air Base, which is located outside of Kharkiv, Ukraine. The airbase
was reportedly struck by a missile.
...
Satellite imagery captured on Feb. 24, 2022 reveals damage to fuel storage
areas and other airport infrastructure at the Chuhuiv airfield. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 39 https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-ukrainian-airbases-struck-
russian-missiles-2022-2
Satellite imagery appears to show Ukrainian airbases struck by Russian
missiles Thursday.
Before and after images were captured on February 21 and February 24,
showing apparent destruction.
US firm Planet captured shots of smoke billowing upward from Mykolaiv
Airbase and Chuhuiv Airbase. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 40 俄军没动基辅的国际机场
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-25-22/h_
81e1f0c0d68adb6ab45a7aa8ad936e72
New satellite images show Boryspil Airport, Kyiv's international airport,
appearing unscathed — but its runways have been blocked by vehicles.
The images, released by Planet Labs PBC, verify rumors of actions taken
across Ukraine before the Russian invasion began. At the airport, runways
and taxiways are blocked, allegedly in an effort to prevent Russian aircraft
from landing and utilizing the airport. | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 41
update-
Dnipro
【在 w********9 的大作中提到】
: 此处有俄军控制地区的估计图
: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-
: russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022
: February 25, 3:00 pm EST
: Russian forces entered major Ukrainian cities—including Kyiv and Kherson—
: for the first time on February 25. Russian forces’ main axes of advance
: focused on Kyiv (successfully isolating the city on both banks of the Dnipro
: River). Russian military operations along Ukraine’s northern border have
: been less well-planned, organized, and conducted than those emanating from
: Crimea. They have also been less successful so far. The divergence in
| w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 42 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-official-says-russian-troops-
approaching-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-2022-02-26/
Ukraine official says Russian troops approaching Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 43 https://www.geonames.org/UA/largest-cities-in-ukraine.html
Ukraine - 10 Largest Cities
Name Population Latitude/Longitude
1 Kyiv wikipedia article, Kyiv City 2,797,553 50.455 / 30.524
2 Kharkiv wikipedia article, Kharkiv 1,430,885 49.981 / 36.253
3 Donetsk wikipedia article, Donetsk Oblast 1,024,700 48.023 / 37.
802
4 Odessa wikipedia article, Odessa 1,013,159 46.486 / 30.744
5 Dnipro wikipedia article, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 998,103 48.467 /
35.041
6 Zaporizhzhya wikipedia article, Zaporizhzhya Oblast 738,728 47.
852 / 35.117
7 Lviv wikipedia article, Lviv Oblast 717,803 49.838 / 24.023
8 Kryvyi Rih wikipedia article, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 624,579 47.
906 / 33.394
9 Mykolaiv wikipedia article, Mykolayiv Oblast 483,186 46.976 / 31
.993
10 Luhansk wikipedia article, Luhansk 452,000 48.567 / 39.317
11 Mariupol wikipedia article, Donetsk Oblast 431,859 47.095 / 37.
541
12 Sebastopol wikipedia article, Sevastopol City 416,263 44.608 /
33.521 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 44 Fighter Jet Firing Missiles
Fighter Jet Firing Missile | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 45 Russian tanks were ambushed | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 46 乌克兰人民代表
与
俄罗斯堂弟兵
之间的亲近对话 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 47 长燃烧火炮去了
这应该是用在城镇房屋上的
现在乌军把城市/镇作为掩护
俄军可能要以此轰击某些大建筑和大阵地了？ | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 51 这种武器太狠了
1批24颗燃烧弹过去，周边很大一片的人全都会死掉 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 53 乌军最强的力量应该还是在从东部到基辅的地区。南部最大的战斗是在第一座桥地区。
看起来不是特别大，相对东部。
如果是打阵地战而不是城市战，乌军会败得更快。因此它没有别的选择。
应该让不愿意打仗的老百姓赶快逃离城市，但是显然男人们都被/“被迫”义务性地留
在城里。
现在，俄国感觉没有退路，只有想法拿下基辅了？
如果拿下，乌军的士气会大打折扣
如果拿不下，俄军在东部的战事就更难了。如果要暂时退一步，首先要拿下的应该还是
南边和东南部。
上次俄军无战斗拿下克里米亚花了几个星期。而独立区的战斗是持久的。
这次应该介于2者之间。
一种可能的收场是：俄罗斯对现有乌克兰的一些重要地区实施事实上的占领。
至少会把独立区扩大。克里米亚的严重水源问题会得到解决。 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 54 应该会出现打打谈谈的局面
俄国人也需要休整并且巩固甚至经营自己夺取的地盘
俄国可能在对乌军尽可能打击，坚持让它强不起来。否则是有后果：乌军可能会被欧美
更加武装起来。
而战争让双边都会变得更加死心。
只有面对面的时候。他们才会想起来曾经拥有过许多共同的东西/人/。。。 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 55 俄国显然有顾虑而没放开猛打
造成的平民伤亡很小
似乎乌克兰官方都没怎么提，民用设施损失被报道得也少
反倒是在提头两天让俄军损失了3500人
（细想。。。似乎俄军在头2天真的很仁义）
在南边进展仍然很快
乌军不久会在很大程度上被割裂开来
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-
russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26
4) Crimea axis: Russian forces advancing north towards Zaprozhia and
east towards Mariupol threaten to isolate Ukrainian forces on the line of
contact in Donbas if they do not withdraw. Russian forces from the Southern
Military District continue to make the greatest advances and demonstrate the
highest capabilities of Russia’s multiple axes of advance. Ukrainian
forces recaptured Kherson the night of February 25-26. However, Russian
forces will likely counterattack within the next 24 hours and Russian forces
remain west of the Dnipro River, threatening Mikolayiv.
Russian forces in Crimea are advancing directly north towards Zaprozhia,
entering Velyka Bilozerka and Tokmak – approximately 80km south of
Zaprozhia – as of 3pm local time on February 26.[29] These forces will
likely enter Zaprozhia within the next 48 hours at current rates of advance.
They may then either continue north to Dnipro City, or pivot east to
isolate Ukrainian forces in Donbas.
Russian forces advancing east out of Crimea captured Berdyansk, 70km west of
Mariupol, early on February 26.[30] Russian forces previously secured
Melitopol late on February 25.[31] These Russian forces will likely encircle
Mariupol within the next 48 hours. They may alternatively – or
additionally – drive north, isolating Ukrainian forces on the line of
contact in Donbas.
Western sources have inaccurately reported the unopposed deployment of
Russian Naval Infantry in Russian-controlled Azovskoye, just north of Crimea
, as an amphibious landing.[32] An anonymous US official told CNN on
February 25 that “potentially thousands” of Russian troops conducted a
landing west of Mariupol, which was inaccurately reported as an opposed
landing.[33] These Naval Infantry forces will likely support Russian
operations to isolate Mariupol. Russia has not yet conducted an opposed
amphibious landing in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recaptured Kherson as of 9am local time on February 26.[34]
Ukrainian forces additionally retained control of Nova Kakhovka as of 9am
local time following heavy fighting overnight.[35] Russian forces will
likely attempt a second assault on the city in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces entered the outskirts of Mikolaiyv early on February 26.[36]
ISW cannot assess what strength of Russian forces have crossed the Dnipro
River and their capability to threaten Odessa – or lack thereof – if cut
off by the Ukrainian recapture of Kherson.
Ukrainian forces reported up to 3 BTGs of Russian second echelon troops from
the 58th Combined Arms Army were committed to the advance on Tavriis'k,
east of Kherson along the Dnipro River, early on February 26.[37] | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 56 CNN记者在
第涅婆儿河南边第一个桥西岸处驻守
他去的amic energy油站被打破了
此桥换手3次以上了
按照上面那个研究所的说法：俄军有些部队已经到达oessa方向的mykoliav | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 57 那个桥特别关键
但是似乎俄军并没有在那里一直呆着
战斗留下来的破坏不是特别突出
根据cnn之前的视频看，俄军战斗机发挥了一点作用
这里有个加油站爆照的视频
里面有大批俄军军车出现 | k*******r
发帖数: 16963 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 59 人民的嘴炮对抗开着战车、披盔戴甲入侵的堂弟们
其中还有苏联母亲 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 61 爱共和国
也爱联邦国
的
车臣大兵
竖起了
2国旗帜 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 64 南边的首要重点应该是mariupol 了
今后几天会对全局的短期发展会特别关键
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-
russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26
3) Donbas axis: Russian forces continued to deprioritize direct assaults
in Donbas or an enveloping maneuver through Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces
likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to
enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them. The Russians
may be content to leave them there while concentrating on capturing Kyiv and
imposing a new government on Ukraine. They may alternatively seek to
encircle and destroy them or force them to surrender.
Russian forces made limited advances on February 26 in Donetsk and Luhansk,
reportedly capturing Stanysia Luuhanska, Volnovakha, and Starohnativka.[26]
Ukrainian forces remain largely in place on the line of contact in Donbas.
Russian forces attacking in northern Luhansk Oblast made little progress as
of February 26. ISW’s initial assessment that Russian forces would likely
attempt an envelopment through Luhansk Oblast was incorrect.[27] Russian
forces likely seek to achieve a larger envelopment using forces breaking out
from Crimea and currently advancing on Mariupol from the west.
Russian forces are continuing assaults on Mariupol from the northeast but
have yet to enter outskirts of the city. Russian proxies claimed to capture
Pishchevik and Pavlopol, 25km northeast of Mariupol, the morning of February
26. Russian forces carried out airstrikes on suburbs of Mariupol at 3pm
local time on February 26.[28] | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 65 乌克兰在东边的部队就没怎么调动
确实没有多少其它的的选择
主要是依据城市打保卫战
俄军对那比较满意，因为那造成了乌军没有整体的协调能力。而俄军的协调能力会继续
加强。
由于过去多年对抗独立区，可能最强的乌军部队很大一部分在那2个独立区周围
俄军在调改策略，在找乌的弱点/软肋/不利因素
在东北到近东中部多少还是有些进展
2) Northeast axis: Russian forces advanced on a broad front between
Chernihiv and Kharkiv on February 26 after Ukrainian forces halted direct
Russian advances through both cities on February 24-25. Ukrainian forces
continue to delay and inflict losses on the Russian advance but will likely
not be able to halt further advances if the Kremlin commits additional
reserves.
Ukrainian forces reported halting Russian advances on an axis roughly
running through Nizhyn, Velyka Doroha, Obychiv, and Okhtyrka at 11am local
time February 26.[19] Russian forces have likely penetrated northeastern
Ukraine on a broad axis to the P67 highway, approximately 120km northeast of
Kyiv.
Russian forces likely bypassed Kharkiv early on February 26 and may have
enveloped it but have not yet entered the city center. Russian tank and
motor rifle units are reportedly continuing direct assaults on the city and
shelling residential areas.[20] Russian forces entered Volokhov Yar, 70km
southeast of Kharkiv, at 11am local time on February 26.[21] Ukrainian
forces took prisoners from the Russian 2nd Tank Division and 138th Guards
Motor Rifle Brigade at unspecified locations around Kharkiv on February 26.[
22]
Ukrainian forces confirmed that elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army
and 20th Combined Arms Army comprise the main Russian force in northeast
Ukraine.[23] Ukrainian forces additionally captured Russian troops from the
35th Motor Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army, including a
battalion chief of staff, likely near Chernihiv.[24]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 6am local time that Russian forces
retain an uncommitted reserve from the 35th Combined Arms Army around Mazyr,
in southeastern Belarus.[25] | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 66 乌军依赖城市的做法束缚了俄军的手脚，很管用
而俄军到处制造战火，不一定就是非要超快拿下几个大城市
一个意图可能就是想让乌军不要有较大的调动
没有比较好的空军支持，乌军仍然还是可以做较短程的调动，但支持mariupol的大调动
就不是那么容易了
基辅是块超硬的骨头。实在不行，俄军可能真要想办法把那里把那里的绝大多数民众“
请”出来，结合断电并且。。。然后尽量速决
不一定非要占领基辅
如果要拿下它，难免要用重火力，对城市某些地区会有大的破坏了
俄军应该用重点地各个击破的办法，而不是要同时梦里攻打。下了一地后调动兵力再下
另外一个重点。。。
1) Kyiv axis: Russia’s likely main effort to rapidly isolate Kyiv and
force the Ukrainian government to capitulate has failed as of February 26.
Russian forces entered downtown Kyiv along the western bank of the Dnipro
River the night of February 25, but Russian forces have so far failed to
enter the city from the east. Russian troops have not yet committed heavy
armor and artillery forces to fighting in Kyiv and will likely need to do so
to take the city. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to capitulate.
The Russian military’s main effort remains seizing Kyiv in an effort to
force the Ukrainian government to capitulate. The Ukrainian General Staff
reported at 11am local time February 26 that Ukrainian forces halted 14
Russian BTGs northeast of Kyiv and that Russia has committed its northern
reserves – an additional 17 BTGs – along this operational direction.[9]
If the Russians have abandoned for now the attempt to encircle Kyiv and
committed to frontal assaults from the northwest and east/northeast, then
the Ukrainians would be in close to the optimal scenario for defending their
capital. The Russians could change that situation either by getting forces
from the northeast axis across the river south of Kyiv and encircling in
that way, by using forces from Crimea to drive all the way to Kyiv from the
south, or by re-attempting and finally succeeding in airlanding airborne
troops to the southeast of the capital. Russia’s surprising failure to
accomplish its initial planned objectives around Kyiv has given the
Ukrainians an opportunity.
Russian forces entered downtown Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro River
the night of February 25. Urban combat continued the night of February 25-26
.[10] Only lighter Russian units – VDV (Airborne) and Special Forces –
have entered Kyiv as of 7pm local time on February 26.[11] Russian forces
have not yet committed heavy armor and artillery to urban fighting in Kyiv.
Russian forces have likely only entered Kyiv on a narrow band along the west
bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces have not completely isolated Kyiv
and Ukrainian forces retain defensive positions in western Kyiv Oblast.[12]
Ukrainian forces reported halted Russian armored advances on Kyiv at
Borodyanka, Bucha, and Vyshhorod at 11am local time February 26.[13]
The Ukrainian military claimed to shoot down two Russian Il-76 transport
planes (Russia’s equivalent of the US C-17) over Kyiv late on February 25.[
14] These claims have not yet been confirmed by other sources.[15] If true,
they may indicate Ukrainian troops have inflicted losses on a Russian
airborne operation around Kyiv.
ISW cannot currently confirm the location or effectiveness of Russian
sabotage groups reportedly active in downtown Kyiv as of February 25.[16]
Ukrainian forces and civilians continued preparations to fight for Kyiv
block-by-block on February 25-26. Territorial defense units and armed
civilians began establishing roadblocks and defensive positions throughout
Kyiv overnight.[17] The Ukrainian government is distributing small arms and
instructions to make Molotov Cocktails to civilians.[18] | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 67 我不认为普金一定有设立新政府的看法
俄军只要能在比较合理的时间长度内打败乌军，把乌军大大地打弱（而且今后能够维持
乌军相当弱小的状况），俄国的基本军事目的就应该达到了
那样的结果会让无政府没有什么威信了（本来在战前，总统的支持率差不多就只是反对
率的一半）
好像普金对乌总统说过要让乌军投降（在做2人最后的谈判前）
此话一出，普金也让自己没有什么大的退路
这场战争是两边主要政治人物的豪赌（尤其对普金）
可能有赢家
也可能没有
如果俄军大赢，根本改变了乌克兰的格局和走向，那么普金就真的是。。。
如果获得的不明显，那他就。。。 | w********9
发帖数: 8613 | |
|
