l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 1 你们说美国人是不是贱啊
CHINA ECONOMY
Some factories might leave China, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn
’t matter much
PUBLISHED MON, MAY 16 20228:37 PM EDTUPDATED MON, MAY 16 202210:42 PM ED
China’s tight Covid controls have reignited conversations about moving
supply chains out of the country.
“From China’s perspective, the movement out of local manufacturing is not
going to be significant enough to really alter the nature of China’s role
in the overall supply chain,” Vishrut Rana, Singapore-based economist at S&
P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview.
For the first four months of the year, foreign direct investment into China
rose by 26.1% year-on-year to $74.47 billion, China’s Ministry of Commerce
said, with that from the U.S. up by more than 50%.
BEIJING — China still holds the cards for global supply chains, whether or
not Covid lockdowns frustrate businesses in the near term.
Companies and analysts have discussed moving factories out of China for
years, especially since labor costs have climbed and U.S.-China trade
tensions worsened.
The pandemic has reignited those conversations. Foreign businesses talk
about how executives can easily travel to Southeast Asia factories, but not
China. Some point to surging exports from Vietnam as an indicator that
supply chains are leaving China.
“Supply chain diversification is quite tricky because people always talk
about it, and boardrooms love to discuss it, but often at the end of the day
people find it’s difficult to implement,” said Nick Marro, global trade
leader at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
When businesses had those discussions in 2020, it turned out that “China
was able to remain open, while Malaysia, Vietnam were going offline,” Marro
said. “Really, the critical factor right now is how China plans on
maintaining these [Covid] controls as the rest of the world opens up.”
WATCH NOW
VIDEO09:57
Why China shows no sign of backing away from its ‘zero-Covid’ strategy
China’s so-called zero-Covid strategy of swift lockdowns helped the country
quickly return to growth in 2020. However, implementation of those measures
has since tightened, especially this year as China faces a resurgence of
Covid in Shanghai and other parts of the country.
‘Significant’ interest in Vietnam
By the numbers, China’s exports rose by 3.9% in April from a year earlier,
the slowest pace since a 0.18% increase in June 2020, according to official
data accessed through Wind Information.
Vietnam in contrast saw exports jump by 30.4% in April from a year ago,
following a nearly 19.1% year-on-year increase in March, Wind showed.
The level of manufacturing interest in Vietnam is “very significant,”
Vishrut Rana, Singapore-based economist at S&P Global Ratings, said in a
phone interview. “Vietnam has emerged as a very key supply chain node for
consumer electronics.”
China still remains at the very center of the electronics network in APAC.
Vishrut Rana
ECONOMIST, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS
But Vietnam’s exports totaled $33.26 billion in April, or about one-eighth
of China’s $273.62 billion in global exports that month, according to Wind.
“From China’s perspective, the movement out of local manufacturing is not
going to be significant enough to really alter the nature of China’s role
in the overall supply chain,” Rana said. “China still remains at the very
center of the electronics network in APAC.”
Businesses still invest in China
For the first four months of the year, foreign direct investment into China
rose by 26.1% year-on-year to $74.47 billion, China’s Ministry of Commerce
said Thursday. During that time, investment from Germany jumped by 80.4%,
while that from the U.S. rose by 53.2%.
In contrast, Vietnam saw a 56% year-on-year drop in foreign direct
investment to $3.7 billion in the first four months of the year, Wind data
showed. Foreign direct investment from the U.S. fell by 14%.
“It is very difficult to match the scale and scope of China’s supply
chains outside China at the moment,” Rana said. Only supply chains for very
specific products — like semiconductors or electric vehicle parts —might
be moving to Vietnam, Malaysia or other countries, he added.
China’s supply chain dominance, built up over the years, is also supporting
new business models.
One of the better known is Shein. Backed by funds such as Sequoia Capital
China, the company has combined big data analytics and its supply chain
network in China to become an international e-commerce giant in low-cost
fast fashion.
“China’s supply chain advantage is not just based on labor cost,” James
Liang, managing partner at Skyline Ventures, said in Mandarin translated by
CNBC.
According to his analysis, at least 20% of the cost of goods sold by apparel
and furniture producers goes into labor costs, versus just 5% for
electronics producers.
China’s advantage is the benefit of having supply chain hubs, which in
Liang’s view pave the way for businesses to boost efficiency by integrating
all their suppliers onto one digital system.
He said his firm invested $5 million in October into a furniture company
called Povison, which is trying to replicate Shein’s model for clothing.
Additional investment plans have been delayed due to Covid-related travel
restrictions, he said.
‘A story of hesitation’
The latest Covid lockdowns have also slowed the ability of trucks to
transport goods throughout China, while keeping many factories in the
Shanghai region at limited or no production for weeks. That’s on top of
Beijing’s policy since 2020 requiring two- or three-week quarantine upon
arrival in China — if the traveler can book one of the few flights in.
Shifting operations out of China is difficult, but “what our survey is
indicating is there will be less investment into China and more investment
into Southeast Asia,” Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce
in China, said during a webinar.
He noted how it is now far easier to fly executives to Singapore or other
countries in the region, than to China.
As a result of the latest Covid controls, nearly a quarter of 372
respondents to the EU Chamber of Commerce in China’s survey in late April
said they were considering shifting current or planned investments to other
markets.
But 77% said they didn’t have such plans. A survey of U.S. businesses in
China found similar trends.
Those survey results indicate that “companies don’t want to quit the
market, but they don’t know what to do,” said the EIU’s Marro. “Right
now it’s more a story of hesitation.”
“Foreign companies are going to be upset about these [zero-Covid] policies,
but at the end of the day there’s not many companies that are going to
jeopardize their position in a decades-long market based on a temporary
shock,” he said.
Even companies like Starbucks, which suspended guidance due to Covid
unpredictability, said it still expects its China business will become
bigger than the U.S. in the long term.
Many analysts expect China may begin to relax its zero-Covid policy after a
political reshuffle in the fall.
When asked Thursday about the EU Chamber’s survey findings, China’s
Ministry of Commerce only noted the global impact of the pandemic to supply
chains. The ministry also said China would improve its foreign investment
services and increase opportunities for foreign businesses.
“Reconfiguring supply chains is not as easy as flipping a light switch on
and off,” said Stephen Olson, senior research fellow at the Hinrich
Foundation.
“Of course, the chessboard would be reconfigured if lockdowns drag on
indefinitely,” he said. “In that case, pressure will build on companies to
consider shifting supply patterns, and the economic and commercial
implications of doing so will look a lot more favorable.” | l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 2 上面这篇文章说了一个事儿，外企不搬离中国已经和劳动力成本没多大关系，关键是中
国掌握着supply chain hub,这个没治，而且很多大企业都非常迷恋中国的巨大消费市
场，这个更没治。
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/some-factories-might-leave-china-but-big-
picture-it-doesnt-matter.html | r******n
发帖数: 4522 | 3 你包叔来治得服服帖帖
【在 l*******2 的大作中提到】
: 上面这篇文章说了一个事儿，外企不搬离中国已经和劳动力成本没多大关系，关键是中
: 国掌握着supply chain hub,这个没治，而且很多大企业都非常迷恋中国的巨大消费市
: 场，这个更没治。
: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/some-factories-might-leave-china-but-big-
: picture-it-doesnt-matter.html
| l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 4 外媒也认为你包叔顺利连任以后，清零政策就会放松了
Many analysts expect China may begin to relax its zero-Covid policy after a
political reshuffle in the fall.
【在 r******n 的大作中提到】
: 你包叔来治得服服帖帖
| t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 5 20年越南战争，美军死亡5.8万人
平均每年死亡2900人。
同时越共和北方死亡300万人，南方150万人。
很惨！ | h*****2
发帖数: 1 | 6
doesn
not
S&
照你这么说， 越南不是更贱？ 越南反中亲美， 听起来是不是特别怪？
但是这就是现实。 越南人心目中最大的敌人就是中国。
【在 l*******2 的大作中提到】
: 你们说美国人是不是贱啊
: CHINA ECONOMY
: Some factories might leave China, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn
: ’t matter much
: PUBLISHED MON, MAY 16 20228:37 PM EDTUPDATED MON, MAY 16 202210:42 PM ED
: China’s tight Covid controls have reignited conversations about moving
: supply chains out of the country.
: “From China’s perspective, the movement out of local manufacturing is not
: going to be significant enough to really alter the nature of China’s role
: in the overall supply chain,” Vishrut Rana, Singapore-based economist at S&
| r******e
发帖数: 1 | 7 中共笑而不语
doesn
not
S&
【在 l*******2 的大作中提到】
: 你们说美国人是不是贱啊
: CHINA ECONOMY
: Some factories might leave China, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn
: ’t matter much
: PUBLISHED MON, MAY 16 20228:37 PM EDTUPDATED MON, MAY 16 202210:42 PM ED
: China’s tight Covid controls have reignited conversations about moving
: supply chains out of the country.
: “From China’s perspective, the movement out of local manufacturing is not
: going to be significant enough to really alter the nature of China’s role
: in the overall supply chain,” Vishrut Rana, Singapore-based economist at S&
| l********1
发帖数: 1 | 8 确实奇怪
中国几千年也没杀过那么多越南人，为啥觉得中国是敌人呢？
【在 h*****2 的大作中提到】
:
: doesn
: not
: S&
: 照你这么说， 越南不是更贱？ 越南反中亲美， 听起来是不是特别怪？
: 但是这就是现实。 越南人心目中最大的敌人就是中国。
| l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 9 南北越只要死的是老百姓，北约军队没死那么多
【在 t*c 的大作中提到】
: 20年越南战争，美军死亡5.8万人
: 平均每年死亡2900人。
: 同时越共和北方死亡300万人，南方150万人。
: 很惨！
| l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 10 不少说，汉伏波将军马援就开始打越南，俘虏阮氏姐妹，到清代福康安还在打
【在 l********1 的大作中提到】
: 确实奇怪
: 中国几千年也没杀过那么多越南人，为啥觉得中国是敌人呢？
| l********1
发帖数: 1 | 11 又不是一直打， 90%的时间是安抚，和亲
而且也没杀那么多人，没搞过大屠杀啥的
【在 l*******2 的大作中提到】
: 不少说，汉伏波将军马援就开始打越南，俘虏阮氏姐妹，到清代福康安还在打
| z**********2
发帖数: 1 | 12 朝鲜中国人杀了多少美国兵？美国和中国做生意是不是贱？
doesn
not
S&
【在 l*******2 的大作中提到】
: 你们说美国人是不是贱啊
: CHINA ECONOMY
: Some factories might leave China, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn
: ’t matter much
: PUBLISHED MON, MAY 16 20228:37 PM EDTUPDATED MON, MAY 16 202210:42 PM ED
: China’s tight Covid controls have reignited conversations about moving
: supply chains out of the country.
: “From China’s perspective, the movement out of local manufacturing is not
: going to be significant enough to really alter the nature of China’s role
: in the overall supply chain,” Vishrut Rana, Singapore-based economist at S&
| l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 13 我觉得90%时间都是蹂躏越南，明永乐就是喜欢伐越南，
韩国有个恐怖电影叫R point, 里面那个冤魂不散的地方就是明朝大屠杀越南人扔到湖
里造成的
【在 l********1 的大作中提到】
: 又不是一直打， 90%的时间是安抚，和亲
: 而且也没杀那么多人，没搞过大屠杀啥的
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 14 那一刻
【在 r******n 的大作中提到】
: 你包叔来治得服服帖帖
| l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 15 所以美国朝鲜现在都不做生意，朝鲜人就不贱
【在 z**********2 的大作中提到】
: 朝鲜中国人杀了多少美国兵？美国和中国做生意是不是贱？
:
: doesn
: not
: S&
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 16 残忍
【在 t*c 的大作中提到】
: 20年越南战争，美军死亡5.8万人
: 平均每年死亡2900人。
: 同时越共和北方死亡300万人，南方150万人。
: 很惨！
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 17 越南选择嫁给美国大兵的缘故
【在 h*****2 的大作中提到】
:
: doesn
: not
: S&
: 照你这么说， 越南不是更贱？ 越南反中亲美， 听起来是不是特别怪？
: 但是这就是现实。 越南人心目中最大的敌人就是中国。
| W***u
发帖数: 1 | 18 越南人里亲华的多的去了，越南人学中文只要三四个月就能讲流利中文，真正的同文同种
中国的动车已经修到河口和凭祥口岸，只要越南点头，中国会免费把这两条铁路修到河
内，也就200多公里
【在 l********1 的大作中提到】
: 确实奇怪
: 中国几千年也没杀过那么多越南人，为啥觉得中国是敌人呢？
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 19 乐不思蜀
【在 r******e 的大作中提到】
: 中共笑而不语
:
: doesn
: not
: S&
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 20 美国玩越南妞
【在 z**********2 的大作中提到】
: 朝鲜中国人杀了多少美国兵？美国和中国做生意是不是贱？
:
: doesn
: not
: S&
| z**********2
发帖数: 1 | 21 不贱就要吃糠咽菜。没有永远的朋友和敌人，只有永远的利益。
意识形态不能当饭吃，过好日子比什么都强。
【在 l*******2 的大作中提到】
: 所以美国朝鲜现在都不做生意，朝鲜人就不贱
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 22 200公里的铁路免费旅游河内
同种
【在 W***u 的大作中提到】
: 越南人里亲华的多的去了，越南人学中文只要三四个月就能讲流利中文，真正的同文同种
: 中国的动车已经修到河口和凭祥口岸，只要越南点头，中国会免费把这两条铁路修到河
: 内，也就200多公里
| c********s
发帖数: 1 | 23 越南后来远嫁美国的更加的狼狈
【在 t*c 的大作中提到】
: 20年越南战争，美军死亡5.8万人
: 平均每年死亡2900人。
: 同时越共和北方死亡300万人，南方150万人。
: 很惨！
|
|
