b*********3
发帖数: 1709 | 1 "Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she
looks." -
--Winston Churchill | b*********3
发帖数: 1709 | 2 Right now it seems the most likely outcome of current events in Russia/
Ukraine is a grinding stalemate that lasts for years. The other outcome is a
slow, grinding degredation of Russian cultural and economic power - to the
point that it becomes a vassal state of China something akin to North Korea.
I see all of this benefiting the West far more than it benefits Russia and
China. From the information that I am able to gather, most of the authors
and commentators here at TAC vastly overestimate the strength and stability
of China. It's economy has shrunk from 11% GDP growth per year on average to
just 2.3% according to the latest statistics. China's zero COVID policy,
together with its vast surviellance apparatus and social credit system, is a
clear sign that its leadership is near-crippled with fear of its own
populace any outside influences. China's prodigeous growth over the last 3
decades was built on capital expenitures and export growth. China vastly
overbuilt its infrastructure to sustain those high growth rates. It'll take
decades for it to absorb those expenditure all the while that the under-used
infrastructure depreciates and deteriorates. It'll cost $ trillions to keep
it from simply falling apart. China's one-child policy has left it with an
aging population that is a net drag on growth on innovation. As this very
moment companies like Apple and Nike are aggressively looking to diversify
their supply chains. COVID revealed just how fragile and dependent they are
on one deeply unreliable country. This is only a partial list of the
problems that China is plagued with.
And now China will have to care for a client state on its norther border
that is itself in miserable shape with little-to-no prospects of adding any
value to China other than cheap oil & gas. I suppose that's something, but
it'll come at the cost of major political instability on it's border. You
think we have problems with Mexico/Latin America? The same thing awaits
China when decades of Western sanctions cripple Russia's economy.
In the end, Russia & China will be locked into a partnership of mutual
weakness that will cost each of them far more than any benefit they might
attain.
So, I think "fighting Russia to the last Ukranian" is a policy with more
upside potential for the West than is currently understood by most people I
encounter here. Brutal, cynical, even "evil" I suppose. I have no interest
in arguing that point because - wasn't Russia's miscalculation in Ukraine
anything other than brutal, cynical and even evil? If, as many here at TAC
argue, Russia is only pursuing its own self interest, well then one could
say the same thing about NATO and the West. Why is it okay for Russia to
pursue its self-interest and not okay for the West to take advantage of the
opportunity Russia so stupidly laid in its lap? And the only answer I've
seen from anybody in regard to that question is that the West promotes LBGTQ
ideology and Russia doesn't.
Fair enough. You like Putin's brand of Imperialist Autocracy better than
Hillary Clinton's. Again, I have no interest in arguing with you about that.
Just don't tell yourself you're somehow better.
Nothing personal. Just Business. | b*******2
发帖数: 1 | | c******r
发帖数: 2306 | 4 不够强，不够弱。正是美国需要的状态。俄罗斯和欧洲之间互相制衡，是美国（英国）
的战略优势。
俄罗斯和中国之间也是潜在的互相制衡。
a
the
Korea.
stability
to
a
【在 b*********3 的大作中提到】
: Right now it seems the most likely outcome of current events in Russia/
: Ukraine is a grinding stalemate that lasts for years. The other outcome is a
: slow, grinding degredation of Russian cultural and economic power - to the
: point that it becomes a vassal state of China something akin to North Korea.
: I see all of this benefiting the West far more than it benefits Russia and
: China. From the information that I am able to gather, most of the authors
: and commentators here at TAC vastly overestimate the strength and stability
: of China. It's economy has shrunk from 11% GDP growth per year on average to
: just 2.3% according to the latest statistics. China's zero COVID policy,
: together with its vast surviellance apparatus and social credit system, is a
| j*******n
发帖数: 10868 | 5 在欧洲边界的冲突估计不会停，北约未必能约束新收的小弟比如波兰铤而走险，鹅毛也
不会忍气吞声，欧洲会继续被拖在泥潭中，这绝非仅仅是鹅毛和鸟克兰的泥潭。欧洲能
被拖多久？欧洲能团结多久？美国能拿什么好处给欧洲？ | Y********g
发帖数: 1 | 6 欧洲这帮傻蛋被美国人忽悠瘸了
俄罗斯，是帝国。在军事上跟美帝一个重量级的。
欧洲推出乌克兰这个小屁孩，去和俄罗斯这个重量级拳王打，还塞给乌克兰一把小剪刀
，美其名日军援
【在 b*********3 的大作中提到】
: "Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she
: looks." -
: --Winston Churchill
|
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