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发帖数: 764 | 1 After ten seasons and a very tumultuous off-season characterized by his
complete and total mishandling of the situation related to Terrelle Pryor
and several other Buckeye players, Jim Tressel has tendered his resignation.
To say the very least, college football has lost one of its top football
coaches By The Numbers. Clearly, he was one of the elite 5 star coaches in
the game.
Keep these numbers in mind about coach Tressel:
WP% OSU WP% in 5 Prev. Years Conf. WP% Home WP% WP% vs.
Michigan WP% vs. Top 25 (TOG) Top 25 Finishes Conf. Champs.
Nat’l Champs.
82.81% 75.41% 82.50% 90.14% 90% 70.83% 9 6 1
A few more numbers to keep in mind:
Coach School Total Players Drafted Total First Round Draft Picks
Avg. Players Drafted # of AP All-Americans # of 1st Team AP All
-Americans
Jim Tressel Ohio St. 66 14 6.6 27 14
Coach School Avg. Annual Football Revenues Avg. Annual Football
Profits
Jim Tressel Ohio St. $59,296,706 $30,182,366
As you can clearly see from the numbers above, Jim Tressel can flat-out
coach.
So, what’s next for the Buckeyes?
The school has temporarily named 37-year-old former Ohio State player and
current co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell as the interim coach. Fickell
has been a part of the coaching staff since 2002, and from everything we
have read about Coach Fickell, he has an extremely bright future ahead of
him.
That being said, our #1 Job By The Numbers should merit some serious
attention from some serious coaches.
Below is our early list of recommendations for Jim Tressel’s replacement.
First, we want to go ahead and state that we will not be recommending any
NFL coaches for the job (unless Pete Carroll decides to return to the
college ranks).
For more details on the why behind our unwillingness to recommend NFL-guys,
see here.
So, let’s get to the obvious choices to replace Tressel. Here are our top 5
no-brainers to be the next head coach at Ohio State.
Coach Current or Last School CBTN Rating CBTN Stars Overall
WP%
Chris Petersen Boise State 77.39 92.42%
Urban Meyer Florida 77.08 81.89%
Gary Patterson TCU 64.88 78.40
Kyle Whittingham Utah 62.74 74.03
Bo Pelini Nebraska 59.38 70.73
Chris Petersen- Hasn’t this guy turned down every job in the country? He
loves Boise, he loves his easy conference, and he loves the job security he
has. The only reason we can see him leaving Boise is for monetary purposes
and that hasn’t been important to him based on jobs he has turned down in
the past. We love Petersen as a coach, but just don’t see this one
happening.
Urban Meyer- Not even six months removed from being arguably the best HC in
Florida football history, we would expect Urban Meyer’s name to start
surfacing immediately. His 81.89% winning percentage along with his 18-2
record against rivals is certainly appealing. Let’s not kid ourselves,
Urban Meyer is the obvious choice and that is probably the reason it won’t
happen. I can’t remember the last time a “that’s our dream coach”
candidate actually took the job. That being said, Meyer is likely to pass on
this opportunity with the uncertainty of NCAA probation hanging over the
OSU campus.
Gary Patterson- Fresh off a Rose Bowl victory against Wisconsin, we feel
that Gary Patterson is the guy to go after if you are Ohio St. He is a
defensive-minded coach who would continue the Ohio St. tradition of gritty,
aggressive defense. He has also shown the ability to hire good offensive
coaches who know how to develop players and put points on the board. His 37-
9 non-conference record and his 51-6 home record would be a big hit in the
Horseshoe. Once again, Patterson, like Meyer, is likely to pass on this
opportunity until the NCAA decides how hard it will bring the hammer down on
OSU.
Kyle Whittingham- After Urban Meyer left Utah for Gainesville, Whittingham
was promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach. If we were betting on
it at the time, we would have put money on the fact that Whittingham would
have been a bit of a failure at Utah. There are not too many coaches that
can follow the kind of success Meyer achieved at Utah with anything but
failure. In his six years as head coach of the Utes, Whittingham has won
over 74% of his games and has won 10 games (including a perfect 13-0 season
in 2008) in three of his six years as head coach. He is also 5-1 in Bowl
Games. He is a defensive-minded coach who would certainly bring a level of
intensity to Columbus that seems to be appealing to the fan base.
Bo Pelini- This will certainly be a popular name around the water cooler
because Pelini is an Ohio St. graduate. While he has done well at Nebraska
in his 3 yrs as HC (9-4, 10-4, 10-4), his record in big games is nothing
spectacular, and we know that OSU plans to play in plenty of those. He has a
good thing going in Lincoln and we don’t know if the risk vs. reward works
in Pelini’s favor in this particular situation.
We believe that each and every one of the coaches above would be solid
choices for Ohio State based on the available data.
Now, given the current mess that is surrounding Ohio State and the sanctions
that will soon be handed down from the NCAA, we feel it is necessary to put
together a Plan B. All of the coaches listed above make good money at solid
programs, and they may not want to give up the stability and comfort of
their current positions to deal with the fallout at Ohio State. Additionally
, not many coaches like to follow coaches who won over 80% of their games.
The simple reality is that it’s hard to improve upon what Coach Tressel did
at Ohio State. A great example of this is Frank Solich. Solich won 70% of
his games as the head coach at Nebraska. Pretty impressive numbers if you
ask us? However, when you consider the fact that Tom Osborne was 60-3 in the
five years prior to Solich taking the reigns, you can understand why he was
fired.
Now, on the other hand, Bo Pelini has only won 70.73% of his games at
Nebraska. Given that this is the same WP% as Solich, why aren’t the Husker
faithful calling for Pelini’s head? The Husker faithful aren’t calling for
Pelini’s head because of what Bill Callahan did in his four seasons as
head coach. Callahan won only 55.10% of his games as head coach of the
Cornhuskers. Compared to Callahan, Pelini looks a lot more like Tom Osborne.
So, thinking outside the box, here is our Plan B list for Ohio State.
First up is Pat Fitzgerald. Coach Fitzgerald has been the head coach at
Northwestern since 2006 and here are what his numbers look like:
School CBTN Rating CBTN Stars Overall WP% WP% in 5 Previous
Years Conf. WP% Conf. WP% in 5 Previous Years
Northwestern 39.16 53.97% 43.33% 45.00% 41.02%
The above numbers don’t really get you too excited about Coach Fitzgerald.
However, if we dig a little deeper and go below the surface of the numbers,
we discover some things that we really like about Coach Fitzgerald.
Coach School CBTN Coach Rank (among active HC’s since 2006 w/min. 2
yrs. experience Avg. Recruiting Rank Differential
Pat Fitzgerald Northwestern 57 (out of 89 head coaches) 63.67
6.67
Here is how Fitzgerald performs against varying talent levels.
WP% w/Superior Talent WP% w/Equivalent Talent WP% w/Inferior Talent
83.33% (10-2) 71.43% (5-2) 38.46% (15-24)
This last set of data is the one that should be the most appealing to Ohio
St. fans. With superior or equivalent talent, Coach Fitzgerald has won 78.95
% of his games. Given that the Buckeyes have played 85 games since 2004 with
superior or equal talent, Fitzgerald could be a solid choice for The Ohio
State University.
Additionally, Fitzgerald knows the conference and knows the expectations of
Ohio State.
Secondly, let’s take a look at Ohio native, Kent State alum, and current
head coach at Missouri Gary Pinkel.
School CBTN Rating CBTN Stars Overall WP% WP% in 5 Previous
Yrs. Conf. WP% Conf. WP% in 5 Previous Yrs.
Missouri 54.90 61.11% 47.37% 51.22% 39.02%
Coach School CBTN Rank (among active HC’s since 2001 w/2 yrs. min.
experience) Avg. Recruiting Rank Differential
Gary Pinkel Missouri 27 (out of 92 head coaches) 42.10 15.1
Here is how Pinkel performs against varying talent levels.
WP% w/Superior Talent – Since 2004 WP% w/Equivalent Talent – Since
2004 WP% w/Inferior Talent – Since 2004
77.78% (28-8) 66.67% (12-6) 50.00% (15-15)
Since 2004, Gary Pinkel has won 74.07% of his games with superior or equal
talent. Furthermore, Pinkel has won 50% of his games when his teams are
entering the game with a significant talent gap.
From the numbers, Gary Pinkel can coach, and we believe his ties to Ohio
would make him a very interesting candidate for Ohio State. On the flip side
of things, Pinkel is paid very well and has massive job security in
Columbia. He would certainly be taking a risk leaving the security of
Missouri, but given the right monetary carrot, he might find himself really
liking the idea of returning home.
Our third Plan B candidate was coaching high school football in 2005.
Gus Malzahn- It is no secret that at CBTN we love Gus Malzahn. You can read
all about the why here. He is an absolute stud on the offensive side of the
ball, and he has dominated statistically everywhere he has coached, from
high school to Arkansas to Tulsa to Auburn. Sure he turned down Vanderbilt
and is making an absurd $1.3 million as a coordinator, but can he turn down
Ohio St. even with the threat of probation? We’d like to see him get the
opportunity.
Fourth up is Alabama’s defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.
Coach School CBTN Rating CBTN Stars CBTN Coach Rank (among
active DC’s Since 2001 w/min. 2 yrs. experience WP% as DC
Kirby Smart Alabama 94.85 1 (out of 99 coaches) 87.80%
Kirby Smart- He was supposedly close to taking the UGA DC job last year
before Bama stepped up and made him the highest paid DC in the country. That
being said, as you can see above, his numbers as a DC are fantastic.
However, until he gets a head job, the question of whether or not Saban is
the man behind the curtain behind will remain unanswered. It would be tough
for him to turn down a job of the caliber of Ohio St., but he has deep ties
to the SEC and it may be more comfortable for him to wait it out and see if
any appealing jobs open up closer to home?
Finally, we conclude with current Mississippi St. head coach Dan Mullen.
School CBTN Rating CBTN Stars Overall WP% as HC WP% in 5
Previous Yrs. Conf. WP% Conf. WP% in 5 Previous Years
Miss. St. 54.16 56.00% 35,59% 43.75% 25.64%
Here is how Mullen performs against varying talent levels.
WP% w/Superior Talent WP% w/Equivalent Talent WP% w/Inferior Talent
87.50% (7-1) 40% (2-3) 30% (3-7)
Dan Mullen- If you can’t get Urban Meyer then why not try and get the guy
who designed the offense that won two National Titles at Florida. Certainly
Columbus is a better place to live than Starkville, Mississippi (Kirk
Herbstreit might disagree) and some of the recruiting hurdles that exist at
Miss. St. don’t exist at OSU. Not to mention that beating Big 10 teams when
you have superior talent is a little easier than grinding it out week-by-
week in the SEC against teams that for the most part have superior or at
least equivalent talent. Mullen has certainly done a very nice job of taking
a program that was complete garbage and turning them into an extremely
competitive and improving SEC foe. Mullen may believe he has a good thing
going in Starkville and could possibly see a move to a tattered Ohio St. as
too risky. However, in the end we are looking at the #1 CBTN Rated Job vs.
the #46 CBTN Rated Job. Bowl ban, scholarship loss, etc. may not matter if
Columbus comes knocking on Coach Mullen’s door.
So, we have taken a look at what we believe are the best possible Plan A and
Plan B candidates to replace Coach Tressel.
In the end, Ohio State may be best served by letting Coach Fickell run the
show for a few years and see what happens. He is an Ohio State man thru-and-
thru and sometimes the guys with the shortest resumes can end up being the
best possible choice.
UPDATE: Urban Meyer removes his name from consideration with a recent
statement. |
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