v**********o
发帖数: 11689 | 1 转自ESPN
1. What happens if Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma all win?
This is actually the most likely scenario (according to ESPN's Football
Power Index, there's a 38 percent chance they all win their respective
conference titles) and would also probably be the most difficult for the
committee, as it would come down to Ohio State or Oklahoma for the fourth
spot. Although the Sooners have been ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in each of
the past five CFP rankings, Ohio State closed the gap significantly after
beating Michigan last week.
"It was their most complete game of the year, an impressive win," committee
chair Rob Mullens said. "The committee certainly took note of that. We moved
them from No. 10 to No. 6. So clearly it had an impact."
Just not enough to take the lead.
Would a win over No. 21 Northwestern change that?
How each team looks in its respective title game could matter, but Mullens
said Tuesday that Oklahoma has a slightly stronger strength of schedule
heading into the game.
"You look at Oklahoma, you see their only loss is to a ranked Texas team at
a neutral site, impressive road wins against ranked West Virginia, ranked
Iowa State," Mullens said. "You line that up against Ohio State with a loss
against Purdue, then obviously an incredibly impressive win versus Michigan
last week, then a quality road win over Penn State. That's how you start to
line it up."
The Sooners also line up against a higher-ranked conference title game
opponent in No. 14 Texas.
As for the common opponent, TCU, that doesn't appear to be much of a factor
at the table.
"Both of them played TCU away from home," Mullens said. "That's pretty
consistent, I would say, with comparable results. Very similar there."
Playoff Predictor says: Too close to call between the Sooners and Buckeyes.
By a true razor-thin margin, Ohio State currently leads in strength of
record and Oklahoma leads in FPI, but both are virtual ties. If this
situation plays out, Playoff Predictor will enter Selection Day thinking the
committee could go either way. Which way will our model lean? At the moment
(without explicitly knowing the committee ranked OU ahead on Tuesday) it
shades toward Ohio State ... barely. This will ultimately come down to the
way these teams win on Saturday. -- Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
HD's prediction: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Oklahoma (unless
Ohio State looks like the Ohio State that crushed Michigan)
play
1:51
Georgia may surprise Alabama in the SEC championshipThe No. 4 Georgia
Bulldogs are coming into their SEC showdown with No. 1 Alabama with
staggering offensive numbers.
2. What happens if Alabama loses?
The Tide would still be considered and could possibly drop down to the
fourth spot, rounding out a top four of 1. Clemson, 2. Notre Dame, 3.
Georgia, and 4. Alabama. It would be easy to justify, as the Tide have been
the committee's No. 1 team all season, and their only loss would be to the
No. 4 team. It would also be easier than trying to decide between Oklahoma
and Ohio State -- two candidates with glaring flaws as well as statement
wins.
The only thing guaranteed about a one-loss Alabama, though, is that it
enters a debate with other one-loss contenders.
It would depend in part on how Alabama loses -- close or convincingly. One
thing the Tide have going for them is that they have separated themselves
not just from the rest of the pack but also within the top four.
When asked two weeks ago what's keeping Notre Dame from joining the
discussion for the No. 1 or No. 2 spot, Mullens said the committee viewed
Alabama and Clemson as "more complete teams." Drawing that line of
separation could be important if Alabama loses to Georgia, because to render
the tiebreakers moot, the committee members have to conclude that Alabama
is "unequivocally" one of the four best teams.
What exactly does that mean? There has to be zero doubt that Alabama, as the
SEC runner-up, is better than the Big Ten or Big 12 champion. If Georgia
somehow stuns Alabama and wins in dominant fashion, that could force the
committee to defer to its tiebreakers: strength of schedule, head-to-head
competition, results against common opponents and conference championships.
Keep in mind, though, that none of those criteria are weighted and vary in
importance with each committee member.
Playoff Predictor says: Even if Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State win their
respective conference championships, Alabama will still probably be our best
guess to grab the fourth spot. It's close, though. The model would give the
Crimson Tide a 44 percent chance to sneak in, just head of Ohio State at 37
percent and Oklahoma at 28 percent. The story could change in the unlikely
event that Georgia wins in a blowout. Barring that, the Tide should ride
their elite FPI rating into Selection Day as the favorite to land the final
playoff bid, even with a loss. -- Walder
HD's prediction: 1. Clemson, 2. Notre Dame, 3. Georgia, 4. Alabama
Even if UCF wins its conference championship with backup quarterback Darriel
Mack Jr. to remain undefeated, the Knights most likely still won't make the
playoff. Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
3. What happens if Alabama, Northwestern and Texas win?
This isn't too far-fetched, considering the Big 12 championship game
features a storied rivalry and Ohio State has been so wildly inconsistent.
Should upsets occur in both games, though, both the Big 12 and Big Ten would
likely be eliminated, as Texas would be a three-loss champion and
Northwestern a four-loss champion. The Pac-12 is also guaranteed to have a
three-loss champion in either Utah or Washington. Instead, the debate would
likely center on two-loss Georgia, as SEC runner-up, two-loss Michigan,
which didn't even win the Big Ten East, or undefeated UCF, if the Knights
can handle Memphis without injured starting quarterback McKenzie Milton.
Because Georgia's only losses would be to LSU and Alabama -- both top-10
teams -- the Bulldogs would likely earn the fourth spot.
In this particular scenario, UCF would rank last in ESPN's strength of
record metric behind Georgia (7.4 percent chance the average top-25 opponent
achieves the same record), Michigan (19.1 percent), LSU (21 percent), Ohio
State (23.1 percent) and Oklahoma (23.3 percent). The average top-25
opponent would have a 24.5 percent chance to go undefeated against UCF's
schedule.
Playoff Predictor says: Sorry, UCF fans. In this case, our best bet is that
the committee would keep Georgia in the top four. Why not? The Bulldogs
would rank fourth in strength of record and third in FPI. That's a playoff r
ésumé. -- Walder
HD's prediction: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Georgia
4. What happens if Clemson loses?
It could open the door for both the Big 12 and Big Ten champions, and
Clemson's strength of schedule would come under the microscope. Clemson
would still have two wins over ranked opponents -- No. 19 Texas A&M and No.
20 Syracuse -- but it would have lost to an unranked, five-loss Pitt team.
That's comparable to Ohio State's loss to Purdue (6-6), the difference being
that the Buckeyes would have a better win (against Michigan) and a
conference title. Oklahoma would also have better wins (against West
Virginia and Texas) and a conference title.
Playoff Predictor says: Clemson is in trouble. Let's say all the favorites
win except Clemson: Alabama and Notre Dame would be locks, and the Playoff
Predictor would put Ohio State (84 percent) and Oklahoma (79 percent)
significantly ahead of Clemson (29 percent). The Tigers' weaker strength of
schedule would come back to haunt them in this case. -- Walder
HD's prediction: 1. Alabama, 2. Notre Dame, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Ohio State
5. What happens if Georgia, Northwestern, Texas and Pitt win?
It's highly unlikely, so it's last on the list, but this scenario might
actually be easier for the selection committee than it appears.
Undefeated Notre Dame and the SEC champion would fill two spots. The rest of
the Power 5 conference champions (Pac-12, Big 12, ACC and Big Ten) would
all have three, four or five losses. It would make it fairly easy (and some
common sense) to say that Alabama and Clemson with one loss are still "
unequivocally better" than the conference champs, though a defeat to a five-
loss Pitt might make a difference because of the head-to-head.
Of course, undefeated UCF would at least be considered should the Knights
win the AAC, but it seems likely they would still be trailing the same teams.
Playoff Predictor says: Congratulations, you've broken Playoff Predictor.
This is so improbable that it has no idea what the committee would do. --
Walder
HD's prediction: 1. Notre Dame, 2. Georgia, 3. Alabama, 4. Clemson | v**********o
发帖数: 11689 | 2 最后一种情况挺有趣 巴马和clemson都进了PO，圣母第一
of
committee
【在 v**********o 的大作中提到】
: 转自ESPN
: 1. What happens if Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma all win?
: This is actually the most likely scenario (according to ESPN's Football
: Power Index, there's a 38 percent chance they all win their respective
: conference titles) and would also probably be the most difficult for the
: committee, as it would come down to Ohio State or Oklahoma for the fourth
: spot. Although the Sooners have been ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in each of
: the past five CFP rankings, Ohio State closed the gap significantly after
: beating Michigan last week.
: "It was their most complete game of the year, an impressive win," committee
| s**********l
发帖数: 8966 | 3 Bama和Georgia不会连打两场，除非sec决赛打得山崩地裂结果有争议，所以以上
scenario里半决赛遇到的肯定会被委员会调整掉。
：最后一种情况挺有趣 巴马和clemson都进了PO，圣母第一
：【 在 violetlvsoso (麦兜) 的大作中提到: 】 | d****n
发帖数: 611 | 4 今年就看这些媒体的套路渲染，巴马，河马，母森，八盖。 | v**********o
发帖数: 11689 | 5 最大概率发生的当然还是第一种情形 其他都是小概率
【在 s**********l 的大作中提到】
: Bama和Georgia不会连打两场，除非sec决赛打得山崩地裂结果有争议，所以以上
: scenario里半决赛遇到的肯定会被委员会调整掉。
:
: ：最后一种情况挺有趣 巴马和clemson都进了PO，圣母第一
: ：【 在 violetlvsoso (麦兜) 的大作中提到: 】
| A******8
发帖数: 294 | 6 婶母坐收渔翁之利，排名只升不降啊
: 最后一种情况挺有趣 巴马和clemson都进了PO，圣母第一
: of
: committee
【在 v**********o 的大作中提到】
: 最大概率发生的当然还是第一种情形 其他都是小概率
| d****n
发帖数: 611 | 7 从历史角度来说，当年圣母瞧不起BIG10学术，所以加入到ACC阵营。
当初算是让BIG10比较羞愧的事件，今年圣母少赛一场又活生生挡住BIG10冠军八盖。
强迫症被调动起来，挺有意思的，他们基本就管不了那么多了。
圣母其实已经没戏，冠军周之后八盖59：0虐掉西北之后，相同对手两场狂胜，八盖以
微弱优势挤掉圣母，冻蒜PO！ |
|
