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发帖数: 1500 | 1 http://readwrite.com/2014/08/14/google-android-open-soure
把苹果的命给革了以后，却发现革命群众不是那么好带的．
Never has a tweet been more true, or potentially more disastrous for a
vendor. Years ago Google's Andy Rubin, stung by Steve Jobs' criticism that
Android wasn't truly open, tweeted that anyone could fork - i.e., modify -
Android, making it "open" in the truest sense of the word.
Unfortunately for Google, many OEMs took Rubin at his word.
Today, Google's Android business is booming, but it's clear that Android
fragmentation minimizes just how much Google—or its ecosystem of app
developers—can make from the open-source mobile OS. Unfortunately,
according to new ABI Research data, it's only going to get worse.
Despite concerns over the years as to just how open Android truly is, Andy
Rubin's tweet set the concerns to rest:
Google open source chief confirmed Rubin's point, telling me that more than
10 million lines of Android code are free to anyone to use under an open-
source license.
Yes, Google controls the development process for Android. And, yes, it may
release code selectively to favored third parties. But on balance, Google
has been an exceptional steward for Android (not to mention many other open-
source projects).
Perhaps too good a steward, it would seem.
Open source has been very good to Google's Android operating system. Unlike
previous mobile operating systems like iOS (available only to Apple) or
Windows (available for a fee and on Microsoft's terms), Android was free to
use (or, as venture capitalist Bill Gurley pointed out in 2011, sometimes
under generous subsidies).
How good? Well, once a non-entity in mobile, Android now has a clear lead in
terms of devices sold and shipped:
Credit: Mark Hibbens, Seeking Alpha
Credit: Mark Hibbens, Seeking Alpha
Oddly, this hasn't turned into a financial bonanza for Android app
developers.
It's long been the case that iOS developers make more money than Android
developers. While Android's superior volume has been serving to cut this
lead, it remains true that Android fragmentation makes it hard for app
developers to monetize Android efficiently.
Source: Google / I Download Blog
Source: Google / I Download Blog
How hard? So hard that 64% of Android developers live below the "app poverty
line" of $500 per app per month, according to VisionMobile.
It may not be much better for Google.
Fragmentation, it turns out, hurts Google, too. No, not in the same way that
third-party developers feel it, but it hurts all the same.
Google has responded to Android fragmentation by forcing Android OEMs to
certify against newer versions of Android in order to get the right to
distribute Google Mobile Services (GMS) or Google Apps. Google has also
introduced new developer APIs that tie directly into Google Play,
sidestepping OEMs to ensure end-users can get the latest Android experience.
That is, provided end-users are running official Android builds. But many
OEMs have a stock response for Google and its attempts to own the Android
experience:
Fork you.
As ABI Research uncovers, forked Android ("AOSP smartphones") grew 20%
sequentially from Q1 2014 to Q2 2014, compared to total market growth of 3%
sequentially. Forked Android, in other words, is now 20% of the global
smartphone market, and growing much faster than the overall market.
It's also growing faster than the certified (Open Handset Alliance, or OHA)
Android market. While this official Android market tops 65% of all
smartphones shipped today, it's growing at a 13% sequential rate.
This wouldn't matter if these were mom-and-pop OEMs with little reach. But
as VisionMobile data highlights, Android's biggest growth comes from a
geography that is happy to go it alone on software: Asia.
ABI Research analyst Nick Spencer unpacks what this means:
AOSP’s growth is driven by the development of Chinese and Indian handset
manufacturers, not only in their domestic markets, but increasingly
throughout Asia and beyond. Chinese and Indian vendors accounted for the
majority of smartphone shipments for the first time with 51% share. While
many of these manufacturers are low cost, some are making inroads in the mid
-tier, including Xiaomi and Gionee, hence the growing challenge to Samsung
in particular.
In other words, two of the world's biggest markets are filled with AOSP/
forked Android vendors that are starting to sell far beyond their home
markets, challenging Google's ability to monetize Android globally.
Could Google still make money from all this forked Android adoption?
Possibly. As Asymco explains, excluding China, Google earns roughly $6.30
per Internet user per year. So in theory a significant percentage of these
Android (or iOS or Windows or...you name it) devices should turn into money
for Google, because each comes with a gateway to the Google Internet.
In practice, however, this isn't the case.
Asymco further explains that while there are plenty of reasons OEMs fork
Android (e.g., a reluctance to deal with Google’s obligations, Microsoft’s
IP licensing costs, etc.), "the most likely reason is flexibility."
Vendors competing on price and localization are looking to move quickly
against each other and can’t wait for blessings from above. Belonging to
some “Alliance” and all that it entails is just too much to ask for
companies that are, so to say, delicate. The result is that the “more open
” version of Android is beginning to threaten the “less open” version of
Android
This "more open" Android will often include "a unique UI and set of services
," including search and other non-Google apps made in China. In other words,
forked Android may mean no $6.30 per user for Google.
All that said, while I imagine Google would like to exert more control over
Android in order to minimize fragmentation for users and maximize revenue
for itself, it's also the case that Android's open source nature has
seriously diminished Apple's once impregnable lock on mobile. In an Apple
world, Google's ability to make money is precarious at best.
In other words, "too open Android" is far better for Google than "too closed
iOS."
Read more from Matt Asay. |
