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发帖数: 31659 | 1 PG认为对Covid-19预测是仅见的credibility测试。
"An epidemic is different. It falsifies your predictions rapidly and
unequivocally."
http://paulgraham.com/cred.html
Corona-virus and Credibility Paul Graham
April 2020
I recently saw a video of TV journalists and politicians confidently saying
that the coronavirus would be no worse than the flu. What struck me about it
was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how daring. How could they feel
safe saying such things?
The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get caught.
They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions. These
people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the
things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that
they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future
that few remember what they said.
An epidemic is different. It falsifies your predictions rapidly and
unequivocally.
But epidemics are rare enough that these people clearly didn't realize this
was even a possibility. Instead they just continued to use their ordinary m.
o., which, as the epidemic has made clear, is to talk confidently about
things they don't understand.
An event like this is thus a uniquely powerful way of taking people's
measure. As Warren Buffet said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you
learn who's been swimming naked." And the tide has just gone out like never
before.
Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this is
the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have. I hope. |
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