h*i
发帖数: 3446 | 1 推荐一本书，是对概率论的＂新解＂：E. T. Jaynes ，Probability Theory: The
Logic of Science， Cambridge University Press，２００３
Free: http://omega.albany.edu:8008/JaynesBookPdf.html
Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0521592712/
我们学的概率统计[1]，是这本书的作者Jaynes所攻击的所谓＂正统＂的概率统计。如果是
学生物，社会科学出身的，肯定学的是R.A. Fisher的理论。记得我们当时学心理统计
学的时候，用的书是系里一个退休老先生，据说是Fisher的弟子写的，油印本，两大册
，文白夹杂，很古雅，基本上是系里的祖传密籍的地位（当然，我们更热衷于八卦老先
生的法国老婆，呵呵）。这本书把Fisher描述成一个学霸，对他的理论和为人大大地抨
击了一番，认为他的理论延迟了科学,发展呵呵。如果学数学物理出身的，可能学概率学
得比较深，就会从测度论来讲。这本书对测度论的无 | A***A
发帖数: 98 | 2 I doubt. It'll be a while before books like this one (and IMHO there are
much better ones, more balanced, with more content and less bitterness) make
any kind of a dent on the way statistics is taught in psychology programs
across this country.
I am not a frequentist, and I use Bayesian computational methods on a daily
basis. The probability theory that I am most familiar with is the
Kolmogorov system, which, IMHO, is well-grounded on the real-line measure
theory of Lebesgue and should simply | h*i
发帖数: 3446 | 3 老实说，我对贝叶斯数据分析的方法的普及也不抱任何幻想。美国一般学心理学的数学
能力太差了，不可能一下子就变了。只可能慢慢的变。不过我觉得在中国，要有好老师
，是可以迅速打开局面的。
但我说的革命性的影响，更多的是从对认知科学的影响。 作认知心理学的可能不少都
有一种体会，就是传统心理学实验方法感觉走到绝路了，要想往神经生理上靠，但怎么
比得过人家学生物的呢？没有自己的一套东西是不行的。我觉得，贝叶斯的观点可能是
拯救认知心理学的一个出路。事实上，这个革命已经开始了，老家伙们支持，新AP们都
在往贝叶斯的路上靠。 看看现在Bulletin, Review的文章就知道了。
Jaynes的观点对心理学的价值大家还没有完全认识到，我觉得是很有可挖掘的。他的
bitterness其实也正常啦，在学术界是算一般的。冷嘲热讽的文章比这厉害的多多了。
大概你们搞psychometrics的比较civil吧，呵呵。
至于Kolmogorov的概率系统，Jaynes自己也认为和贝叶斯的是一致的。Kolmogorov的系
统是好的数学，没有人否定这个，问题是和现实没有关系。好的数学系统多了去了，能
描述现实
【在 A***A 的大作中提到】
: I doubt. It'll be a while before books like this one (and IMHO there are
: much better ones, more balanced, with more content and less bitterness) make
: any kind of a dent on the way statistics is taught in psychology programs
: across this country.
: I am not a frequentist, and I use Bayesian computational methods on a daily
: basis. The probability theory that I am most familiar with is the
: Kolmogorov system, which, IMHO, is well-grounded on the real-line measure
: theory of Lebesgue and should simply
| h*i
发帖数: 3446 | 4 Care to recommend some? I am very interested.
I have Gelman's "Bayesian Data Analysis". I like it. Any others that you can
recommend?
..................
【在 A***A 的大作中提到】
: I doubt. It'll be a while before books like this one (and IMHO there are
: much better ones, more balanced, with more content and less bitterness) make
: any kind of a dent on the way statistics is taught in psychology programs
: across this country.
: I am not a frequentist, and I use Bayesian computational methods on a daily
: basis. The probability theory that I am most familiar with is the
: Kolmogorov system, which, IMHO, is well-grounded on the real-line measure
: theory of Lebesgue and should simply
| r******s
发帖数: 2155 | 5
make
Examples?
【在 A***A 的大作中提到】
: I doubt. It'll be a while before books like this one (and IMHO there are
: much better ones, more balanced, with more content and less bitterness) make
: any kind of a dent on the way statistics is taught in psychology programs
: across this country.
: I am not a frequentist, and I use Bayesian computational methods on a daily
: basis. The probability theory that I am most familiar with is the
: Kolmogorov system, which, IMHO, is well-grounded on the real-line measure
: theory of Lebesgue and should simply
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