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Quant版 - 一道概率题
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c*********g
发帖数: 154
1
独立同分布的从一个[0,1]均匀分布中采N个样本以使其和大于等于1,而之前N-1个样本
的和小于1。那么随机变量N的期望是多少?
面试的时候不需要给出具体推导,但是猜测得要有一些根据
j*****4
发帖数: 292
2
E(N)>2.
Is this about the inspection paradox in renewal process?

【在 c*********g 的大作中提到】
: 独立同分布的从一个[0,1]均匀分布中采N个样本以使其和大于等于1,而之前N-1个样本
: 的和小于1。那么随机变量N的期望是多少?
: 面试的时候不需要给出具体推导,但是猜测得要有一些根据

p*****k
发帖数: 318
3
E[N]=e, as the c.d.f. has a nice geometrical interpretation
(volume of the corner of a (n-1)-dim hypercube), so
Pr[N>=n]=1/(n-1)!
thus E[N]=sum{from n=1 to infty} 1/(n-1)!=e
f***a
发帖数: 329
4
ls的方法貌似很强大
笨一点的方法也能求出来:
let Y_n=x_1+...+x_n where x_i iid from unif(0,1)
then
P(N=1)=0
P(N=2)=P(Y_1<1,Y_2>=1)=1/2
P(N=3)=P(Y_2<1,Y_3>=1)= (do some integrations here, not hard)
...
and since P(N=n) decreases fast as n increases.
E(N) /approx sum{n=1:k}(n*P(N=n)), k is some small integer depends on how
much error you allow.
这个的确比较笨。。。-_-|
c*********g
发帖数: 154
5
略微有一点错,应该是:
Pr[N>=n]=1/n*(n-1)!
E[N]=sum{from n=1 to infty} n*Pr[N>=n] = sum{from n=1 to infty} 1/(n-1)! = e

【在 p*****k 的大作中提到】
: E[N]=e, as the c.d.f. has a nice geometrical interpretation
: (volume of the corner of a (n-1)-dim hypercube), so
: Pr[N>=n]=1/(n-1)!
: thus E[N]=sum{from n=1 to infty} 1/(n-1)!=e

p*****k
发帖数: 318
6
creepingdog, unless i misunderstand your formula, you are calculating
the p.d.f., which is Pr[N=n].
what i did was the c.d.f., which has a geometrical meaning,
(the p.d.f. is simply Pr[N=n]=Pr[N>=n]-Pr[N>=n+1])
then the expectation was calculated via:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value#Discrete_distribution_taking_only_non-negative_integer_values
c*********g
发帖数: 154
7
yeah, sorry, you are right. i was thinking Pr[N=n].

【在 p*****k 的大作中提到】
: creepingdog, unless i misunderstand your formula, you are calculating
: the p.d.f., which is Pr[N=n].
: what i did was the c.d.f., which has a geometrical meaning,
: (the p.d.f. is simply Pr[N=n]=Pr[N>=n]-Pr[N>=n+1])
: then the expectation was calculated via:
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value#Discrete_distribution_taking_only_non-negative_integer_values

i*****e
发帖数: 159
8
how do you get Pr[N>=n]=1/(n-1)! ?
and sum{from n=1 to inf} 1/(n-1)! = e ?
Thanks

【在 p*****k 的大作中提到】
: E[N]=e, as the c.d.f. has a nice geometrical interpretation
: (volume of the corner of a (n-1)-dim hypercube), so
: Pr[N>=n]=1/(n-1)!
: thus E[N]=sum{from n=1 to infty} 1/(n-1)!=e

1 (共1页)
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