W**********r
发帖数: 8927 | 1 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=%2Fc%2Fa%2F2011%2F0
Home values fell in the Bay Area and around the nation in the fourth quarter - that's nothing new.
What's different this time is that the accelerated declines are likely to bring the real estate market to a bottom later this year, according to real estate information service Zillow.com, which is releasing a report today on fourth-quarter values.
"This is the beginning of the end," said Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. "We're seeing more depreciation in most markets, which means the ultimate end (to the declines) will come sooner rather than later."
For the nine-county Bay Area, Zillow shows a median home value in the fourth quarter of $463,246, down 3.6 percent compared with a year earlier, and down 31.8 percent from a peak of $679,159 in April 2006.
Humphries predicts that the Bay Area and many other markets should hit bottom this year - but that doesn't mean values will start rising anytime soon.
"I expect a long, flat bottom," he said. "Most markets will remain in malaise for an extended period of time. It will take at least three years to see more normal appreciation rates, i.e., in the 2 to 4 percent range."
The reasons? The foreclosure pipeline is still clogged with properties, many homeowners are underwater and unemployment continues apace.
Home values in the Bay Area experienced a "double dip." They had risen for five consecutive quarters under the influence of federal and state home-buying tax credits, only to fall again in both the third and fourth quarter of 2010. Elsewhere in the nation, double dips were less common because prices never rose, but in California, the state tax credit for home buyers helped juice sales.
Solano stands out among the nine Bay Area counties as the hardest-hit market - and also one that may be starting to stabilize. The low-priced exurban county had the biggest decline in the region, with values now around $209,000, less than half of their peak of $473,000. But in the fourth quarter, it was the only local county where median values did not fall compared with the prior year; instead they were flat.
"I think we're bumping along the bottom right now," said Realtor Douglas MacDonald of Coldwell Banker Solano Pacific in Vallejo.
The Vallejo market is very competitive now, he said, with multiple offers and about 450 homes for sale, which translates to four months' worth of inventory. There appears to be a big backlog of shadow inventory - foreclosed homes that banks are withholding from the market, as well as homes where owners are far behind on payments or scheduled for a foreclosure auction.
"Six years ago in 2005, even in 2006, there was not one single-family home in Vallejo priced under $400,000," he said. "Now it's hard to find any type of home in Vallejo priced over $400,000."
The upside of that is increased affordability. "It's actually cheaper to own than to rent almost any house in Vallejo right now," he said.
Zillow's report also said: | w******y
发帖数: 8040 | 2 这么看弯曲房价要涨了
这些评论都必须反着看
【在 W**********r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=%2Fc%2Fa%2F2011%2F0
: Home values fell in the Bay Area and around the nation in the fourth quarter - that's nothing new.
: What's different this time is that the accelerated declines are likely to bring the real estate market to a bottom later this year, according to real estate information service Zillow.com, which is releasing a report today on fourth-quarter values.
: "This is the beginning of the end," said Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. "We're seeing more depreciation in most markets, which means the ultimate end (to the declines) will come sooner rather than later."
: For the nine-county Bay Area, Zillow shows a median home value in the fourth quarter of $463,246, down 3.6 percent compared with a year earlier, and down 31.8 percent from a peak of $679,159 in April 2006.
: Humphries predicts that the Bay Area and many other markets should hit bottom this year - but that doesn't mean values will start rising anytime soon.
: "I expect a long, flat bottom," he said. "Most markets will remain in malaise for an extended period of time. It will take at least three years to see more normal appreciation rates, i.e., in the 2 to 4 percent range."
: The reasons? The foreclosure pipeline is still clogged with properties, many homeowners are underwater and unemployment continues apace.
: Home values in the Bay Area experienced a "double dip." They had risen for five consecutive quarters under the influence of federal and state home-buying tax credits, only to fall again in both the third and fourth quarter of 2010. Elsewhere in the nation, double dips were less common because prices never rose, but in California, the state tax credit for home buyers helped juice sales.
: Solano stands out among the nine Bay Area counties as the hardest-hit market - and also one that may be starting to stabilize. The low-priced exurban county had the biggest decline in the region, with values now around $209,000, less than half of their peak of $473,000. But in the fourth quarter, it was the only local county where median values did not fall compared with the prior year; instead they were flat.
| W**********r
发帖数: 8927 | 3 Bet with your money ～～
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
: 这么看弯曲房价要涨了
: 这些评论都必须反着看
| f*******s
发帖数: 3046 | 4 25% underwater不算太惨吧？湾区好学区应该比例小多了，而且underwater不意味着房
主付不起，为啥拿这个数字说事？ | S**********r
发帖数: 1410 | 5 我老人家估计好学区的房子开春到夏天会小涨5%， 到今年冬天在跌掉其中2.5% | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | | W**********r
发帖数: 8927 | | m********5
发帖数: 285 | | r*****g
发帖数: 682 | 9 我去看了ｚｉｌｌｏｗｓ的ｄａｔａ， ｓｆ和ｓｊ ｍｅｔｒｏ ｍ－ｍ，ｑ－ｑ，
ｙ－ｙ都是跌的。 不知道前几天说ｓａｎ ｊｏｓｅ 领涨的文章数据从何而来。
哪个更可靠。 也有可能只是几个ｐｏｃｋｅｔ见涨， 总体还是跌。
quarter - that's nothing new.
bring the real estate market to a bottom later this year, according to real
estate information service Zillow.com, which is releasing a report today on
fourth-quarter values.
economist. "We're seeing more depreciation in most markets, which means the
ultimate end (to the declines) will come sooner rather than later."
fourth quarter of $463,246, down 3.6 percent compared with a year earlier,
and down 31.8 percent from a peak of $679,159 in April 2006.
bottom this year - but that doesn't mean values will start rising anytime
soon.
malaise for an extended period of time. It will take at least three years to
see more normal appreciation rates, i.e., in the 2 to 4 percent range."
many homeowners are underwater and unemployment continues apace.
five consecutive quarters under the influence of federal and state home-
buying tax credits, only to fall again in both the third and fourth quarter
of 2010. Elsewhere in the nation, double dips were less common because
prices never rose, but in California, the state tax credit for home buyers
helped juice sales.
market - and also one that may be starting to stabilize. The low-priced
exurban county had the biggest decline in the region, with values now around
$209,000, less than half of their peak of $473,000. But in the fourth
quarter, it was the only local county where median values did not fall
compared with the prior year; instead they were flat.
【在 W**********r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=%2Fc%2Fa%2F2011%2F0
: Home values fell in the Bay Area and around the nation in the fourth quarter - that's nothing new.
: What's different this time is that the accelerated declines are likely to bring the real estate market to a bottom later this year, according to real estate information service Zillow.com, which is releasing a report today on fourth-quarter values.
: "This is the beginning of the end," said Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. "We're seeing more depreciation in most markets, which means the ultimate end (to the declines) will come sooner rather than later."
: For the nine-county Bay Area, Zillow shows a median home value in the fourth quarter of $463,246, down 3.6 percent compared with a year earlier, and down 31.8 percent from a peak of $679,159 in April 2006.
: Humphries predicts that the Bay Area and many other markets should hit bottom this year - but that doesn't mean values will start rising anytime soon.
: "I expect a long, flat bottom," he said. "Most markets will remain in malaise for an extended period of time. It will take at least three years to see more normal appreciation rates, i.e., in the 2 to 4 percent range."
: The reasons? The foreclosure pipeline is still clogged with properties, many homeowners are underwater and unemployment continues apace.
: Home values in the Bay Area experienced a "double dip." They had risen for five consecutive quarters under the influence of federal and state home-buying tax credits, only to fall again in both the third and fourth quarter of 2010. Elsewhere in the nation, double dips were less common because prices never rose, but in California, the state tax credit for home buyers helped juice sales.
: Solano stands out among the nine Bay Area counties as the hardest-hit market - and also one that may be starting to stabilize. The low-priced exurban county had the biggest decline in the region, with values now around $209,000, less than half of their peak of $473,000. But in the fourth quarter, it was the only local county where median values did not fall compared with the prior year; instead they were flat.
| k*****r
发帖数: 1435 | 10 最近收favorite的一个个都在几周内消失了 | r*****g
发帖数: 682 | 11 要看ｓａｌｅ ｐｒｉｃｅ 吧， 卖得掉不等于价不跌阿
【在 k*****r 的大作中提到】
: 最近收favorite的一个个都在几周内消失了
| m**f
发帖数: 87 | 12 其实没什么好争论的，房价再高的时候也有人买。房价再低的也有人不买。看各自的需
求和购买力。谁不想买最低，卖最高，但是那都是做梦。大时机抓对了就可以了。
【在 r*****g 的大作中提到】
: 要看ｓａｌｅ ｐｒｉｃｅ 吧， 卖得掉不等于价不跌阿
| W**********r
发帖数: 8927 | 13 好像超过一半都是Short Sale的成交量
【在 m**f 的大作中提到】
: 其实没什么好争论的，房价再高的时候也有人买。房价再低的也有人不买。看各自的需
: 求和购买力。谁不想买最低，卖最高，但是那都是做梦。大时机抓对了就可以了。
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