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发帖数: 2455 | 1 It’s official. China is now #2. Its economy (measured in nominal GDP
for the second quarter) is now bigger than Japan’s (according to
numbers released today from the Japanese government). And at the rate
it’s growing, China could be the world’s biggest economy in a little
more than a decade (Goldman Sachs says by 2027, PricewaterhouseCoopers
says by 2020).
Don’t be misled by these numbers. The important thing isn’t China’s
ranking, nor the total value of China’s production, nor even the
extraordinary speed by which China has reached #2.
What’s most important is the share China’s production received and
consumed by the Chinese themselves. The problem is it continues to
drop.
China has dozens of billionaires but the vast majority of the Chinese
are still extremely poor. The typical Chinese lives off the equivalent
of about $3,600 a year. That puts him behind workers in 126 other
countries. (The typical Japanese earns the equivalent of about
$39,000; the typical American, $46,400.)
Yes, Chinese employers are starting to respond to new-found demands of
Chinese workers for higher wages. But Chinese wages are so meager
relative to China’s productive capacity that it would take a tsunami
of labor agitation to push pay up to where it should be.
China is now the world’s largest market for everything from cars to
cell phones – but that’s not because these items are within easy reach
of the average Chinese. It’s because, out of 1.3 billion people, a
couple of hundred million can save enough to buy them.
If the wages and purchasing power of Chinese households continues to
rise more slowly than China’s capacity to produce goods and services —
more slowly than China’s corporate profits and the government’s share
of national income — we’re all in trouble.
Think of China as a giant production machine that’s growing 10 percent
a year (this year, somewhat less). The machine sucks in more and more
raw materials and components from rest of world – it’s now the world’s
#1 buyer of iron ore and copper, and close to the #1 importer of crude
oil – and spews out a growing mountain of stuff, along with huge
environmental problems.
But because the Chinese consume a smaller and smaller proportion of
this stuff, it has to be exported to consumers elsewhere (Europe,
North America, Japan) to keep the Chinese working. Much of the money
China earns by selling it around the world is reinvested in factories,
roads, trains, and power plants that enlarge China’s capacity to
produce far more. Another big portion is lent to or invested in the
rest of the world (helping to finance America’s budget deficit at very
low cost).
But this can’t go on. China’s workers won’t allow it. Workers in other
nations who are losing their jobs won’t allow it, either.
The answer is not simply more labor agitation in China or an upward
revaluation of China’s currency relative to the dollar. The problem is
bigger. All over the world, we’re witnessing a growing gap between
production and consumption, while the environment continues to
degrade. The Chinese machine is fast heading for a breakdown only
because it’s growing fastest. |
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