l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 1 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。
S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国
债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某
threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错
了,多算了几个trillion。
我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim
Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。
S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写
了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是
印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
出,一点儿技术含量都没有。
我这次倾向于同意胖猫同学的阴谋论。昨天没有任何消息,股市大跌500点。胖猫同学
说有人也short了国债。大概都是串通好了的。如果因为算错了数字就不downgrade,做
局的这些人就要亏大了,所以无论如何不管用任何借口,非得downgrade不可。
不过S&P也挺聪明,把责任都推到共和党头上了,说是因为预期共和党死也不肯加税,
所以认为赤字问题无法解决。大概是给民主党个甜头,省得惹怒了政府整他。 |
n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 2 downgrade理由充分。希腊降得,美帝降不得?
减掉2T后还要降级,可见美帝财务状况多糟糕。
如果是你自己,债务滚雪球增加并远大于收入增幅,难道信用分数不下降吗?
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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a****t 发帖数: 108 | 3 你家要是说自己印钱换自己债,别人也接受。那就不同了
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : downgrade理由充分。希腊降得,美帝降不得? : 减掉2T后还要降级,可见美帝财务状况多糟糕。 : 如果是你自己,债务滚雪球增加并远大于收入增幅,难道信用分数不下降吗?
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 4 are they fool?
【在 a****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你家要是说自己印钱换自己债,别人也接受。那就不同了
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P**********c 发帖数: 3417 | 5 这个是建立在良好信用基础上的,一直这么干信用肯定会受挫的。
【在 a****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你家要是说自己印钱换自己债,别人也接受。那就不同了
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x*******1 发帖数: 1278 | 6 我个人认为美国通过印钞票,借钱来解救经济,的确信用度不好,应该降级。
短暂的借钱是可以,但是如果是不停的借钱,而且越借越多,这很明显不靠铺啊。
不要看美国一直在裁政府工作,他们在军事上是乱花钱的。
我们公司的产品只是军事产品上的一个component,产品的有关文件卖5000块钱,产品
卖10万左右, profit margin是很大的。所以即使一个项目托上1年以上,即使人工和材
料非常贵,还是可以赚钱。 |
d*****r 发帖数: 1635 | 7 星期一,大买日元。
美国的美元,股市,国债都会狂降。 |
l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 8
小布什时代,S&P re-affirm美债AAA rating,他的model用的预期debt/GDP ratio比这
次算错的还高,说没问题。
这次说预期的debt/GDP太高了,所以要降级。然后还发现算错了,结果人家把
downgrade的理由改一改,照降级不误。这里面要是没有鬼,那就只能是个奇迹了。
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : downgrade理由充分。希腊降得,美帝降不得? : 减掉2T后还要降级,可见美帝财务状况多糟糕。 : 如果是你自己,债务滚雪球增加并远大于收入增幅,难道信用分数不下降吗?
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p*******s 发帖数: 1613 | 9 你要是以为几个数字就应该能改变评级,那你是根本不懂评级的含义。 |
P*O 发帖数: 4324 | 10 您老就别操心乐,S&P咋算都行,白宫有本事反驳,自然会把数据亮出来。为啥不亮?
因为数据早就烂透了,为什么到现在降级? 没错,timing最重要。
S&P已经说了,降级的理由之一,包括social security和medicare一点没动,美国人从
2008年起已经在嚷嚷social security快破产了。 |
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c********l 发帖数: 8138 | 11 S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写
了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是
印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
出,一点儿技术含量都没有。
垃圾阿三!
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 12
你老懂,给大家讲讲?
【在 p*******s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你要是以为几个数字就应该能改变评级,那你是根本不懂评级的含义。
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 13
?
亮过了,S&P承认自己算错了。
这不是一开始的报告里他决定要降级的理由。这是被挑出math error以后,开始的理由
讲不通了,花了两个钟头紧急硬改的理由。这个理由几乎没人信,不过看来反正你是信
了。
【在 P*O 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 您老就别操心乐,S&P咋算都行,白宫有本事反驳,自然会把数据亮出来。为啥不亮? : 因为数据早就烂透了,为什么到现在降级? 没错,timing最重要。 : S&P已经说了,降级的理由之一,包括social security和medicare一点没动,美国人从 : 2008年起已经在嚷嚷social security快破产了。
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 14 Standard & Poor‘s had warned for months that it might downgrade the U.S.
credit rating if leaders couldn’t find a way to reduce the growing national
debt by $4 trillion over 10 years.
obviously, the deal doesn't meet this condition.
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : ? : 亮过了,S&P承认自己算错了。 : 这不是一开始的报告里他决定要降级的理由。这是被挑出math error以后,开始的理由 : 讲不通了,花了两个钟头紧急硬改的理由。这个理由几乎没人信,不过看来反正你是信 : 了。
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 15
national
You are misinformed. Check the news again.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Standard & Poor‘s had warned for months that it might downgrade the U.S. : credit rating if leaders couldn’t find a way to reduce the growing national : debt by $4 trillion over 10 years. : obviously, the deal doesn't meet this condition.
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j******l 发帖数: 10445 | 16 操,美国100来年的AAA被印度人搞砸了?
结合印度外包,印度人当总裁后倒闭的公司数目之大,看来印度在下一盘搞垮美国乃至
欧洲的超级大棋啊! |
n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 17 that's the news i read.
if sp is so unfair, why not gov sue it?
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : national : You are misinformed. Check the news again.
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 18
You read it wrong。S&P clarified, a long time ago, that it was not the case。
It's first amendment - freedom of speech. I can rate your debt however I
want. It's just an opinion.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : that's the news i read. : if sp is so unfair, why not gov sue it?
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 19
case。
b/w sp and gov, i'd rather trust sp.
then why moody's and sp got sued by investors?
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : You read it wrong。S&P clarified, a long time ago, that it was not the case。 : It's first amendment - freedom of speech. I can rate your debt however I : want. It's just an opinion.
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 20
没告成啊。
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : case。 : b/w sp and gov, i'd rather trust sp. : then why moody's and sp got sued by investors?
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t*****l 发帖数: 5477 | 21 所谓阴谋论是啥样的,胖猫的帖子在哪里没有看到
sp 必须给美债降级的理由是啥?请教了 |
n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 22 the failure is not because of free speech.
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 没告成啊。
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t****u 发帖数: 8614 | 23 是不是花街已经short了债卷?然后S&P再降级,顺便剪把羊毛。
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 24
反正周四莫名其妙暴跌就挺诡异的。然后S&P一定要在周五降级,财政部说你算术都算
不对,至少再仔细考虑考虑等到周一决定行不行?结果S&P没过俩钟头就把报告改了,
把降级原因从经济改成政治,正式宣布降级。说是把他们在欧洲那边的什么委员从床上
叫起来开的紧急会议。
总之是透着邪气。。。
【在 t****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 是不是花街已经short了债卷?然后S&P再降级,顺便剪把羊毛。
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s*********x 发帖数: 1923 | |
s******v 发帖数: 4495 | 26 Downgrade Controversy Began With Single Phone Call
By DAMIAN PALETTA, JEANNETTE NEUMANN, and CAROL E. LEE
WASHINGTON—On Monday, Congress's non-partisan number cruncher released an
11-page report describing how the newly minted debt-ceiling deal would cut
the deficit by at least $2.1 trillion. While congressional offices were busy
studying the report, an official from the rating firm Standard & Poor's
quietly called to ask for details of the underlying projections.
Four days later, based in part on that discussion, the rating firm announced
a decision to downgrade America's debt—an unprecedented event in U.S.
history—a move that is as controversial as it is potentially damaging to
financial markets.
More
S&P Strips U.S. of Top Credit Rating
The information S&P gathered that day led it to overestimate future deficits
by $2 trillion, a fact the Obama administration has called a reckless
mistake. That phone call wasn't the reason S&P cut America's debt rating.
But it was part of a chain of events, including also a stock market plunge
and an emergency Oval Office meeting, which could have serious and lasting
consequences for America's standing in the world, the Obama presidency and
the reputation of S&P.
Now, the White House finds itself in a position not unlike Europe's debt-
laden countries: squabbling in public with a rater whose decision it
dislikes. S&P didn't take the Treasury Department's suggestion to take time
in reconsidering the decision, and instead rewrote its written justification
for the move.
"The magnitude of their error and combined with their willingness to simply
change on the spot their lead rationale in their press release once the
error was pointed out was breathtaking," said White House National Economic
Council Director Gene Sperling. "It smacked of an institution starting with
a conclusion and shaping any arguments to fit it."
S&P President Deven Sharma defended the firm's position Saturday in an
interview, including the speed with which it put out the statement. "We
believe that once we have a rating decision we must move forward and get it
to the marketplace quickly," Mr. Sharma said. "It's important to the
marketplace to let them have our point of view."
S&P's decision lay in the wild, near-default experience the country had
endured just days before.
On July 31, the White House and congressional Republicans reached a deal to
raise the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling and cut between $2.1 trillion and $2.
4 trillion from the deficit over 10 years. The agreement fell short of the $
4 trillion package some White House officials and congressional leaders had
strived to achieve. But Republican resistance to tax increases and
Democratic opposition to major health-care cuts ultimately torpedoed hopes
for a larger deal.
The scaled-back compromise reflected a desperate effort to reach a political
consensus before Tuesday, when the government might have run out of cash to
make payments on everything from its debt to Social Security. Ominously,
the deal fell short of a $4 trillion package that S&P had warned would be
necessary to preserve the U.S.'s AAA credit rating that it had held for
seven decades.
When the S&P called the Congressional Budget Office—Congress's number
cruncher—it asked about the different projections, known as "baselines,"
that it uses to estimate the impact of policy decisions on future deficits.
Estimating that government spending would grow at a higher rate of inflation
would make deficits worse, for example. This seemingly innocent exchange
would set the stage for a dramatic series of phone calls several days later.
On Tuesday, President Barack Obama signed the debt-ceiling deal into law.
The next day, Treasury Department assistant secretary for financial markets
Mary Miller and other officials met with a team of S&P analysts to discuss
the agreement.
Treasury officials explained to members of the "credit team" from S&P how
the deficit cuts and future spending reductions would work.
Ms. Miller, a debt market expert and financial analyst who spent 26 years at
T. Rowe Price Group Inc., is a key part of the White House's economic team
even though she is relatively unknown outside of the administration. She
helped delay a default on the U.S. debt for as long as possible during as
talks dragged on and was recently nominated for a senior position at
Treasury to reflect her rising stature.
Her second-floor office is directly below that of Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner, with a view overlooking the White House.
The S&P team included sovereign debt chief, David T. Beers, known by some
for his bushy mustache and others—particularly in the administration—for
being tough-minded. When the 90-minute meeting ended, S&P told Treasury they
would confer later in the week to decide the next step. With that, members
of the S&P team flew back to New York.
The downgrade clock began to tick.
Administration officials had stewed for months that S&P had an itchy trigger
finger gunning for a downgrade. In April, Mr. Beers and other S&P officials
met with Treasury Secretary Geithner and others to press for details of the
U.S.'s plans to cut deficits. S&P officials felt they had been overly
transparent in how they viewed the fiscal problems facing the U.S. Other
countries with AAA ratings, such as the U.K., had taken bold steps to reduce
their deficit. The U.S. had not.
On Thursday, concerns about global debt problems hammered financial markets,
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points. Mr. Beers
notified the Treasury Department that the "credit" committee would be
meeting the next day.
On Friday, the stock market opened up sharply on an unexpectedly strong jobs
report, but rocketed south when rumors of a U.S. debt downgrade by S&P
filtered through trading desks and newsrooms. At 9:48 a.m., the Dow Jones
began a precipitous 150-point, eight-minute nosedive. Markets see-sawed all
day, with S&P officials refusing to comment on their plans.
What few knew at the time was that S&P officials had convened on a
conference call Friday morning and meticulously walked through their view of
the U.S.'s credit rating, a process they repeat for each of the 126
countries they review. Ultimately, they decided to downgrade the U.S.'s debt
from AAA to AA+.
At 1:15 p.m., they called Treasury Department officials to relay the news
followed thirty minutes later by an emailed a copy of their draft press
release. The announcement would be made public soon.
The email jolted the administration. Mr. Geithner phoned White House chief
of staff Bill Daley and White House National Economic Council Director Mr.
Sperling and notified them of the downgrade. Messrs. Geithner and Sperling
saw Mr. Obama in the Oval Office to deliver the news. Mr. Obama's reaction
couldn't be learned, though it came amidst a series of tense calls with
European leaders about the euro zone's debt crisis.
At the Treasury building, a team of officials huddled in Ms. Miller's office
to dissect the press release. They included Matthew Rutherford, a top
Treasury brain who came to Washington from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York, Chris Meade, a top agency attorney, and John Bellows, whose ambiguous
title -- acting assistant secretary for economic policy -- underplayed his
importance as a key Geithner adviser and budget expert.
Within minutes, Mr. Bellows noticed what Treasury viewed as a glaring
mistake in S&P's decision: The rating firm had used a "baseline" that
projected deficits running at a much faster rate than many analysts thought
likely. In essence, they had used a CBO "alternative" scenario instead of
the more standard outlook.
Over five years, the deficit would be roughly $300 billion smaller using the
standard outlook. Over 10 years, the gap would be closer to $2 trillion.
Because Treasury officials believed they were being downgraded because the
deficit-reduction deal was $2 trillion short, they thought this new
revelation could upend S&P's formula.
They relayed their findings to S&P, Mr. Geithner, and the White House. The
monumental decision was now in limbo.
S&P officials were jarred, and phoned a CBO analyst to confer. The firm
immediately switched to the more conservative deficit forecast. Treasury
officials urged them to delay any decision for several days and take more
time to deliberate.
A government official said the Treasury urged S&P to reconvene the "credit"
committee in light of the glaring change. S&P agreed, and officials in North
America and Europe dialed into another conference call to decide whether to
reverse their decision.
Treasury and White House officials waited nervously. Over the course of
several hours, their mood would shift from disappointment, disgust, and
finally disbelief.
S&P officials decided that despite the new projections the downgrade was
still deserved. But they shifted the focus of their justification. Instead
of basing it primarily on the insufficient size of the deficit-reduction
deal, they emphasized Washington's dysfunctional Washington political
culture.
S&P rewrote its press release to reflect this change.
This "political settings," as it's known to S&P, didn't assign blame to
either the White House or congressional Republicans. But S&P officials felt
the political mess raised questions about whether any future deficit-
reduction package of substance could be achieved. This would be vital, in
their view, to deal with the aging U.S. population and health care costs
that will outpace inflation in the next decade.
Mr. Beers telephoned Treasury at 8 p.m. and said the downgrade was imminent.
Treasury officials protested.
Thirty minutes later, the historic press release ricocheted around the world
. |
l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 27 好久不见你老发言啊。能不能讲讲你老对周一的market有什么看法啊?
busy
announced
【在 s******v 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Downgrade Controversy Began With Single Phone Call : By DAMIAN PALETTA, JEANNETTE NEUMANN, and CAROL E. LEE : WASHINGTON—On Monday, Congress's non-partisan number cruncher released an : 11-page report describing how the newly minted debt-ceiling deal would cut : the deficit by at least $2.1 trillion. While congressional offices were busy : studying the report, an official from the rating firm Standard & Poor's : quietly called to ask for details of the underlying projections. : Four days later, based in part on that discussion, the rating firm announced : a decision to downgrade America's debt—an unprecedented event in U.S. : history—a move that is as controversial as it is potentially damaging to
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c****y 发帖数: 1207 | 28 很明显
去看下记录片insider job
这些评级机构,和投资银行,还有关键大学教授
都是一条流水线上的配合环节
都属于前台执行层面
决策发号施令的藏在幕后
执行层面,就是听幕后老板的,贯彻老板意图
什么理由,都可以现找
不过阿三水平弱, 老掉链子, 执行都出漏子
阿三做事水平那么烂
但是这些年在美国公司普遍上位, 包括早些年阿三CC作假贩人乱搞,美国政府纵容不管. 为什么?
因为阿三和美国幕后老板,勾搭上了
几年前一报道, 米犹高级军官和阿三在藏南阿三军方飞机失事,送了命
很多蛛丝马迹, 窜起来看就懂了
政治就是这样, 站队而已
这些事,不少聪明人能看明白
不过人玩的是阳谋, 只要能忽悠住大部分傻瓜, 形成势, 就成了
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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P*O 发帖数: 4324 | 29 藏在幕后决策发号施令的,是利用timing,不是改变事实。
事实是可能insiders早就知道美国够不上AAA,但是谁都不愿意降级,一直到有人过不下
去日子了.显然比起花街,government的日子一直还能过下去,因为有纳税人供着.
【在 c****y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 很明显 : 去看下记录片insider job : 这些评级机构,和投资银行,还有关键大学教授 : 都是一条流水线上的配合环节 : 都属于前台执行层面 : 决策发号施令的藏在幕后 : 执行层面,就是听幕后老板的,贯彻老板意图 : 什么理由,都可以现找 : 不过阿三水平弱, 老掉链子, 执行都出漏子 : 阿三做事水平那么烂
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b*****g 发帖数: 72 | 30 美国国债降不得?你是财政部的五毛?美国每花$1就借$0.4,早就应该降级了。 |
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l*********1 发帖数: 2971 | 31 因为现在是他干爹当总统撒,这降级的高帽往他干爹头上一戴,
萝卜头比爹死娘嫁人还难受。
这要是布什还在台上,这二B还不把S&P这阿三哥给供起来。
【在 b*****g 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 美国国债降不得?你是财政部的五毛?美国每花$1就借$0.4,早就应该降级了。
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j********n 发帖数: 255 | 32 靠,还要加税,让不让人活啊
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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c****i 发帖数: 921 | 33 同意“S&P的信誉就是P”,美国的公正信誉评级应该是BXX吧. |
l****g 发帖数: 5080 | 34 这个还真没准,过去一段时间一直都是美元跌,股市涨。降级会使美元跌没错,可是美
元跌会使股票涨,但降级会使进一步印钱困难,也就是QE3困难,经济在过去两年都是
靠的兴奋剂(stimulus),没了兴奋剂,经济也会不举,所以股票也不看好。所以会有两
个相互矛盾的作用在股票上,到底股票怎样走,到时看吧。
【在 d*****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 星期一,大买日元。 : 美国的美元,股市,国债都会狂降。
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d******o 发帖数: 2489 | 35 我居然读完了,晚上M一下
busy
announced
【在 s******v 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Downgrade Controversy Began With Single Phone Call : By DAMIAN PALETTA, JEANNETTE NEUMANN, and CAROL E. LEE : WASHINGTON—On Monday, Congress's non-partisan number cruncher released an : 11-page report describing how the newly minted debt-ceiling deal would cut : the deficit by at least $2.1 trillion. While congressional offices were busy : studying the report, an official from the rating firm Standard & Poor's : quietly called to ask for details of the underlying projections. : Four days later, based in part on that discussion, the rating firm announced : a decision to downgrade America's debt—an unprecedented event in U.S. : history—a move that is as controversial as it is potentially damaging to
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d******o 发帖数: 2489 | 36 那个片子看了,令人深思。
A3忽悠能力不可小视,再加上他们能够繁殖,未来会成为股力量。
【在 c****y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 很明显 : 去看下记录片insider job : 这些评级机构,和投资银行,还有关键大学教授 : 都是一条流水线上的配合环节 : 都属于前台执行层面 : 决策发号施令的藏在幕后 : 执行层面,就是听幕后老板的,贯彻老板意图 : 什么理由,都可以现找 : 不过阿三水平弱, 老掉链子, 执行都出漏子 : 阿三做事水平那么烂
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p***e 发帖数: 1318 | 37 这个不一定. 看最近走势, 明年巴马说不定要落马. 好棋下成了臭棋...
>>不过S&P也挺聪明,把责任都推到共和党头上了,说是因为预期共和党死也不肯加税,
>>所以认为赤字问题无法解决。大概是给民主党个甜头,省得惹怒了政府整他。
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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t**x 发帖数: 20965 | 38 楼主实在是脑子不好啊。
sp这次没错,美国前瞻的支付能力大打折扣,根本不可持续。美国如果不继续改政府和
上限, moody一样会给之降级。
问题是美国各方面都不错,可能华尔街会惨,长期对美国有好处。 |
r******y 发帖数: 1785 | 39 总有sb以为这些东西很客观
金融危机,那些ceo照样发红利
墙街的米油把全世界都艹了个遍
当年元首可惜了,这群垃圾都该彻底清理掉,全部直接就地正法
?
【在 P*O 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 您老就别操心乐,S&P咋算都行,白宫有本事反驳,自然会把数据亮出来。为啥不亮? : 因为数据早就烂透了,为什么到现在降级? 没错,timing最重要。 : S&P已经说了,降级的理由之一,包括social security和medicare一点没动,美国人从 : 2008年起已经在嚷嚷social security快破产了。
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l*******y 发帖数: 862 | 40 S&P 这是自杀,财政部都是些什么人啊,连面子都不给,阿三不想混了?
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 看了一圈新闻,看来下周又要见证历史了。。。 : S&P当年把subprime垃圾债都评成AAA,帮墙街发了大财。现在突然树起贞节牌坊,把国 : 债降级了。他早晨把报告给财政部沟通,报告说降级的原因是赤字的预期超过了某 : threshold。结果财政部给他找出个大bug,原来it没看懂CBO的报表,把赤字预期算错 : 了,多算了几个trillion。 : 我想也不对啊。两党谈判的时候就是对应着这几家评级机构的要求写的法案,Tim : Geithner也到处保证了,怎么可能犯这么基本的错误。 : S&P也承认自己算错了,财政部还以为这就不用降级了,结果人家回头马上把报告重写 : 了,把降级理由改一改,还是给降级了。靠,这也太不严肃了吧!S&P这个总裁竟然是 : 印度一个烂校毕业的,在美国也是读的烂校,不知道怎么爬上去的。骗人都搞得漏洞百
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t**x 发帖数: 20965 | 41 还在吃屁的老中担心阿三,,, 人家爽死了,就算不行也有老中垫底。
【在 l*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : S&P 这是自杀,财政部都是些什么人啊,连面子都不给,阿三不想混了?
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l*****O 发帖数: 402 | 42 Second that! I am not a racist. But this time I am too 悲催了!
【在 r******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 总有sb以为这些东西很客观 : 金融危机,那些ceo照样发红利 : 墙街的米油把全世界都艹了个遍 : 当年元首可惜了,这群垃圾都该彻底清理掉,全部直接就地正法 : : ?
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 43
说明人家后台硬。这位念了几个烂校,出来在几个不知名的公司做做marketing,然后
就渐渐爬上去了。突然就成了S&P的president。不能光骂人家,其实这个值得我们老中
学习啊,到底是怎么做到的??
具体负责的人,John Chambers(不是Cisco那位),chairman of S&P's sovereign
ratings committee,是读英国文学系的本科和硕士,然后不知道怎么找了个银行的工
作,再然后就爬上去了。
合着这么重要的事儿,都是一群民科在管。。。
【在 l*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : S&P 这是自杀,财政部都是些什么人啊,连面子都不给,阿三不想混了?
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 44 我老周末读了读paper。
这次S&P只是downgrade了长期国债,短期国债re-affirm了。如果金融市场恐慌,长期
国债可能会跌,同时避险资金会推高短期国债。美联储可以卖短期国债买长期国债,这
样Fed balance sheet总额不变(也就是不用“印钱”),只是改变一下duration。
Primary dealers还可以用国债做抵押在Fed的discount window借钱,这个不会受降级
的影响。所以银行应该不会出现liquidity问题。
所以周一股票大跌应该还是必然的,但是不会有那么可怕。 |
a**n 发帖数: 2431 | 45 seems make sense
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我老周末读了读paper。 : 这次S&P只是downgrade了长期国债,短期国债re-affirm了。如果金融市场恐慌,长期 : 国债可能会跌,同时避险资金会推高短期国债。美联储可以卖短期国债买长期国债,这 : 样Fed balance sheet总额不变(也就是不用“印钱”),只是改变一下duration。 : Primary dealers还可以用国债做抵押在Fed的discount window借钱,这个不会受降级 : 的影响。所以银行应该不会出现liquidity问题。 : 所以周一股票大跌应该还是必然的,但是不会有那么可怕。
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 46 多可怕算可怕?肯定赶不上两房雷曼挖墓的组合炸弹。
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我老周末读了读paper。 : 这次S&P只是downgrade了长期国债,短期国债re-affirm了。如果金融市场恐慌,长期 : 国债可能会跌,同时避险资金会推高短期国债。美联储可以卖短期国债买长期国债,这 : 样Fed balance sheet总额不变(也就是不用“印钱”),只是改变一下duration。 : Primary dealers还可以用国债做抵押在Fed的discount window借钱,这个不会受降级 : 的影响。所以银行应该不会出现liquidity问题。 : 所以周一股票大跌应该还是必然的,但是不会有那么可怕。
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l**t 发帖数: 6971 | 47
股版的民科们不是号称Dow要跌到5000点嘛。
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 多可怕算可怕?肯定赶不上两房雷曼挖墓的组合炸弹。
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 48 只要有工作,有稳定现金流进账,越低越好。
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 股版的民科们不是号称Dow要跌到5000点嘛。
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l******l 发帖数: 2651 | 49 小兄弟你操的心太多了点。
>>>>>合着这么重要的事儿,都是一群民科在管。。。
早就该降了。迟到了八年.
撑到今天,不容易。按某的说法,这是一个国家的死撑。
S&P 不管有没有阴谋,只不过是叫出了皇帝的新衣。
2003年1月,布什的经济班子黔驴技穷,无法增加就业机会。
然后,GAO, 作假帐,Greenspan作假证, 说国家形势不是小好,是大好,打完Iraq财政
盈余还绰绰有余。
Powell作yellow cake假证。
Bush政府打着“十字军东征”及“重现罗马帝国”的旗号,要干倒iraq.
穷兵黩武,妄图以此实现油价每桶$10.
下半年,GAO出来说帐错了,Greenspan说经济发展不如预期,轻飘飘一句话就过了。
当时,按标准就该降级了。
再往下,你眼中那些砖家,从Henry Paulson到Larry Summers不是废物就是只顾自己捞
钱,哪个管国家死活?
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 股版的民科们不是号称Dow要跌到5000点嘛。
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P*O 发帖数: 4324 | 50 您老还可以去读读国会金融危机报告,primary dealer 随便用啥都能借到钱,空手套白
郎都行哈.
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我老周末读了读paper。 : 这次S&P只是downgrade了长期国债,短期国债re-affirm了。如果金融市场恐慌,长期 : 国债可能会跌,同时避险资金会推高短期国债。美联储可以卖短期国债买长期国债,这 : 样Fed balance sheet总额不变(也就是不用“印钱”),只是改变一下duration。 : Primary dealers还可以用国债做抵押在Fed的discount window借钱,这个不会受降级 : 的影响。所以银行应该不会出现liquidity问题。 : 所以周一股票大跌应该还是必然的,但是不会有那么可怕。
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l*******y 发帖数: 862 | 51 其实downgrade 并没有改变经济实质。周一美国国债长短期还都在升,说明大家还是把
国债当safe haven, 没受downgrade 影响。
股市会跌,但过几天经济刺激计划出来就会反弹。
【在 l**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我老周末读了读paper。 : 这次S&P只是downgrade了长期国债,短期国债re-affirm了。如果金融市场恐慌,长期 : 国债可能会跌,同时避险资金会推高短期国债。美联储可以卖短期国债买长期国债,这 : 样Fed balance sheet总额不变(也就是不用“印钱”),只是改变一下duration。 : Primary dealers还可以用国债做抵押在Fed的discount window借钱,这个不会受降级 : 的影响。所以银行应该不会出现liquidity问题。 : 所以周一股票大跌应该还是必然的,但是不会有那么可怕。
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z*y 发帖数: 1311 | |