SanFrancisco版 - Optionpain.com predicted GOOG bad ER 5 days early (转载) |
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o**********n
发帖数: 367 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: optionoption (option), 信区: Stock
标 题: Optionpain.com predicted GOOG bad ER 5 days early
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 18 12:52:54 2012, 美东)
Here is the record of the discussion on Optionpain's 99% forum
GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm
About 10, 000 contracts of Oct. $700 Puts were dumped to the market around
Sep 25 and 26 at $7.2.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:51 pm
About 5,000 contracts of $700 Put were bought back between Oct 2 and 10, at
lower prices such as $3.5, $4.0, etc.
It is interesting to observe what the seller would do for the rest of 5,000
contract of $700 put.
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:11 am
the goog oct 20 800 calls have a 20607 open intrest and the goog nov 17 810
calls have open intrest 17333 huge calls sittin in open int........
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:38 am
jpester1 wrote:
the goog oct 20 800 calls have a 20607 open intrest and the goog nov 17 810
calls have open intrest 17333 huge calls sittin in open int........
Oct $800 calls appeared around Sep. 24 and 25.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:39 am
jpester1 wrote:
the goog oct 20 800 calls have a 20607 open intrest and the goog nov 17 810
calls have open intrest 17333 huge calls sittin in open int........
Nov 800 calls also appeared on Sep. 24, 25
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:45 am
Around Sep 24 and 25, there were huge surge of
(1) Oct 800 calls
(2) Oct 700 puts
(3) Nov 800 calls
But it seems that Oct 700 puts have been partially bought back, while the
Oct and Nov. 800 calls are still sitting there.
Buying Oct 700 puts back could mean that these puts would become more
valuable in the near future, it is likely that GOOG will show big drops
recently (it could break 700).
It would be interesting to watch what happens to these three options next.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:19 pm
i think what they are doin is sellin the oct 800 calls to buy the nov 810
calls.....
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:44 pm
There must be a large firm involved here, due to the large trade size, let
us call it firm A.
The question is who was the counter party of the large trade.
(1) If Firm A was dumping the options to small traders, then open interest
reflects the creation of new OI by from A, and Firm A profit from small
traders' losses.
(2) If another large Firm B was the counter party, then the goal of the
trade could be hedging, swap, or cooperation in price manipulation.
Based on what happened to Oct 700 puts, relatively small reducing of OI over
several days, it seems to me that firm A was buying back the puts from
retail, small, traders.
jpester1 wrote:
i think what they are doin is sellin the oct 800 calls to buy the nov 810
calls.....
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:16 pm
therefore thinkin goog is headed towards 800 vs 700 correct?
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:40 pm
jpester1 wrote:
therefore thinkin goog is headed towards 800 vs 700 correct?
Based on the continuing disappearance of 700 put, it seems going south.
But please be extremely careful,
your money, your risk.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:35 pm
the nov options are showing those 700 puts being dumped to market...any new
thoughts on goog here?
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:50 pm
jpester1 wrote:
therefore thinkin goog is headed towards 800 vs 700 correct?
Without looking Nov options, it looks to me GOOG has more chance going down
(Oct puts were bought back).
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by hat4715 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:53 pm
No, I would think $700 or lower is in play possibly. If Firm A is
anticipating Google might be going lower than $700., Then Firm A would not
want the premium they are collecting at $700 to become a loser. I had
purchased $700 put credit spread Monday. I received a good price Monday
because Google was way down at one point. I was legging into an Iron Condor.
On the bounce up this morning I sold the position for a small profit. $700
stil has high OI but the buy backs scare me. MR. Optionpain am I
interpreting this safe way. I know there are no guarantees in trading. Just
looking for how to interpret option dumping. Thanks.
hat4715
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:27 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:06 pm
I have watched many GOOG ERs.
But this Oct. 2012 ER seems to have a very strong and consistent signal.
Please always consider risk management (in case we are wrong) before you put
money at risk.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:10 am
gettin mixed signals from option dumping chart on goog sometimes it pulls up
that more 800 calls being sold and sometimes it s pulling up those 800
calls being bought back........what are you seeing optionpain??
jpester1
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:59 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by hat4715 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:40 am
You scared me for a minute. To me it still has high open interest at the $
800 at least. Where the $700 has never really been sold back into the market
.
Optionpain, a question. Since you have to work with data one day behind. In
other words this morning current pain and weekly pain on figured on
yesterday data. Thus AAPL current pain $645 and weekly at $650. Tomorrow
morning these two should match? Correct or? Thanks
hat4715
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:27 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:36 am
[
quote="hat4715"]You scared me for a minute. To me it still has high open
interest at the $800 at least. Where the $700 has never really been sold
back into the market.
Optionpain, a question. Since you have to work with data one day behind. In
other words this morning current pain and weekly pain on figured on
yesterday data. Thus AAPL current pain $645 and weekly at $650. Tomorrow
morning these two should match? Correct or? Thanks[/quote]
Yes, the best you can figure out is what they were doing in the previous
trading day.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:38 am
jpester1 wrote:
gettin mixed signals from option dumping chart on goog sometimes it pulls up
that more 800 calls being sold and sometimes it s pulling up those 800
calls being bought back........what are you seeing optionpain??
Our purchased data, very reliable, is available around 7:00pm est. before
that, we get data from Yahoo!finance, which is not very reliable.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:39 am
does goog still look like it s headin lower? thanks
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:47 am
jpester1 wrote:
does goog still look like it s headin lower? thanks
I have not looked at the charts, but based on past charts, someone was
buying back large amount of oct. 700 puts.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:45 am
Optionpain wrote:
Around Sep 24 and 25, there were huge surge of
(1) Oct 800 calls
(2) Oct 700 puts
(3) Nov 800 calls
But it seems that Oct 700 puts have been partially bought back, while the
Oct and Nov. 800 calls are still sitting there.
Buying Oct 700 puts back could mean that these puts would become more
valuable in the near future, it is likely that GOOG will show big drops
recently (it could break 700).
It would be interesting to watch what happens to these three options next.
GOOG dropped to 700 after the announcement! | o**********n
发帖数: 367 | 2 More discussions.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:49 am
optionpain naileddddddddd it
jpester1
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:59 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:10 am
bought 2 goog 715 puts weekly for 4.8 sold for 25.00 bought 2 goog 735 puts
weekly for 10.30 sold for 47.40 great jobbbbbbbbb
jpester1
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:59 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by hat4715 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:18 am
YES. I am glad I took of that put side of the Ic the other day. I had a 10
contract call spread on it. Already cashed out at .10. That put side would
of ruined my week. I am listening to a trading room right now where quite a
few are stuck in the put side.
hat4715
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:27 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:23 am
jpester1 wrote:
bought 2 goog 715 puts weekly for 4.8 sold for 25.00 bought 2 goog 735 puts
weekly for 10.30 sold for 47.40 great jobbbbbbbbb
Congratulations!
Thanks everyone for making contributions in this discussion.
Optionpain
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am | o**********n
发帖数: 367 | 3 SF board friends,
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发帖数: 367 | 4 This person made over $11,000 based on the information
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:10 am
bought 2 goog 715 puts weekly for 4.8 sold for 25.00 bought 2 goog 735 puts
weekly for 10.30 sold for 47.40 great jobbbbbbbbb
jpester1
【在 o**********n 的大作中提到】
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