R*******b
发帖数: 384 | 1 根据美媒最近的分析，全美各地房屋价格连续第五个月降温。也就是说，现在房价的增
幅越来越慢了，由于今年7月份的经济放缓显著，房价增幅降也大幅度减少，到达了
2016年9月以来的最低水平。
这个问题其实有另个方面值得重视，首先是四五六月，美国的经济数据十分亮眼，经济
增长很快，同时就业率方面也是历年新低。但是到了七月就经济增长不行。
这可能与发生贸易战有关，也可能是与这一年多的经济发展良好，是与税改有关，但是
税改有个前提条件，是有钱，现在美国的财政赤字越来越多。
所以这搞不好亮眼的经济数据，可能是昙花一现。
贸易战提升了很多建筑材料的成本，钢材这类的都是，而房价速度如果跟不上的话，那
就是修房子的不赚钱了，卖房子的也不赚钱，如果按照这个趋势发展，房价即将走到高
位后开跌。 | c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 2 建商过的挺好。大型建商Toll brothers 今天公布业绩，形势大好，raise guidance,
and stock went up 10%, 巨头DR Horton 业绩也很好。不过DR Horton在conference
call 里提到他们在加州长期有很大“挑战”，在高价位地区保守，注重
affordability,现在加州的exposure只有以前的1／3。Analysts 也似乎对加州特别关
心。
Jay McCanless - Wedbush Securities, Inc.
Okay. Thanks. And then a two-part question on California. Could you talk
about what percentage of the current community count is located there, and
then also just talk about land availability. You've got a couple of tough
comps coming up for orders over the next two quarters and just seeing what
the land availability is like to drive the neighborhoods and the order
growth out there?
Michael J. Murray - D.R. Horton, Inc.
I think in the short-term, we feel pretty good about the – the land
availability is already kind of crystallized in the lots and flags for short
-term sales. In terms of the longer term, California is always a challenging
land market and we have teams that are very focused on positioning us to be
in front of what we believe is the best part of the market, which is
affordable housing, below certain price points in various submarkets. And
that's what our focus has been to continue to execute against those price
points and that's where we're seeing our growth coming from by and large.
Jessica L. Hansen - D.R. Horton, Inc.
And then Jay we don't disclose our community count by state or by region.
However, I can assure that California is about a third of the exposure this
cycle is what we had last cycle. Really by choice we've got more diverse
product offerings and a more diverse footprint where we can go find
acceptable and attractive returns across the entire country.
So although we really like California and we're very happy with our
investments there they are at a lower level this cycle compared to prior
cycles. | c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 3 建商的业绩能看到很多信息，当然很多时候看法不一样，
比如TRI Pointe's (TPH) Q2 2018 Results - Earnings Call，认为Mid-Atlantic and
Seattle疲软，但看好北加州
CEO Doug Bauer
Hi, Jack. This is Doug. I don't see a commonality across the whole company.
It's very market specific. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, the
second quarter saw the first couple of months a little softness in the D.C.
area in Quadrant. We're keeping our eyes on the Seattle market, although we
recently opened a new community last week in King County and had very strong
sales success for product that was over $800,000. But those would be the
two markets that we're paying particular attention to.
California, as a whole, is generally very strong. Northern California was
very – is very strong right now, both the demand and margin, and we're very
excited about our openings in Southern California between our Pardee brand,
especially out in the Inland Empire or Active Adult. And then the second
half of this year, we're opening five new communities at PHR down in San
Diego. So California is looking very good still. Phoenix is looking very
good. Its really a byproduct of where we are in the community life. We’ve
got some excellent communities that are opening up in the next nine months,
later this year and the beginning or early part of next year. And Texas is
very strong. So as I mentioned at the beginning of the comments, we’re
being most watchful of the Mid-Atlantic and Seattle, I would characterize
that. | t*******z
发帖数: 606 | 4 建材受贸易战影响将会涨价。新房建筑成本会增加，卖价也会增加。 | C******y
发帖数: 3249 | 5 才刚刚开始，国内再搞一波官富，吊起来打，把美国房子全部抛售，把美元吐出来 |
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