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发帖数: 15 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
发信人: J1229 (), 信区: Immigration
标 题: Charlie最新预测
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 28 14:18:40 2018, 美东)
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting
Division, Charles Oppenheim, provides visa bulletin explanations and
predictions. This month, Mr. Oppenheim provides some updated predictions
regarding the employment-based categories, including a sobering long-term
prediction for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for
India.
Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1) Category
The cutoff dates in the EB1 category all advance by three months in the
December 2018 Visa Bulletin. Mr. Oppenheim expects this category to continue
to advance, but he does not yet have enough data to estimate how quickly
the cutoff dates will move. He hopes to have additional information in
December that will allow him to make more specific predictions for the EB1
category.
Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) and Third Preference (EB3) China
Due to a large increase in demand for EB3 China, the cutoff date for EB2
China has passed that of its EB3 counterpart. This is expected to reduce EB3
-to-EB2 “downgrade” filings from China for the time being.
EB2 and EB3 India
The cutoff date for EB3 India is only a month behind the cutoff date for EB2
India. In the coming months, Mr. Oppenheim anticipates that EB3 India will
advance past the EB2 India cutoff date, which could lead to the EB3-to-EB2
downgrade filings that have been common in these categories for China.
While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long
-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending
I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process
all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January
2011. Therefore, regardless of how quickly the EB2 India category advances
in the short-term, it appears that Indians with priority dates of January
2011 and later have quite a wait ahead of them.
Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5)
Presently, the EB5 category is current for all countries of chargeability,
with the exception of China and Vietnam. However, there has been a spike in
EB5 filings in recent years, largely from countries like India and South
Korea. This eventually will lead to retrogression in the EB5 category for
these countries. The average processing time for an immigrant petition filed
for an EB5 case (form I-526), is close to two years. So, even if the
priority date is current at the time of filing, the retrogression for these
countries is expected to hit while many of these cases are still pending.
Mr. Oppenheim predicts that, for those who filed an I-526 petition on
October 30, 2018, the amount of time it will take for an immigrant visa to
become available is as follows:
China (Mainland): 14 Years
India: 5.7 Years
South Korea: 2.2 Years
Vietnam: 7.2 Years |
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