j*f
发帖数: 1 | 1 我觉得中美两国的数学都挺好
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How many CONCACAF nations qualify for the World Cup?
CONCACAF Table
GP PTS GD
1 - Canada 11 25 +14
2 - USA 11 21 +9
3 - Mexico 11 21 +6
4 - Panama 11 17 +1
5 - Costa Rica 11 16 1
6 - El Salvador 11 9 -7
7 - Jamaica 11 7 -7
8 - Honduras 11 3 -17
1-3 qualify; 4 into playoff
The top three nations in CONCACAF qualify directly to the World Cup, which
begins on Nov. 21 and runs through to the final on Dec. 18.
The fourth-place nation in the region will face a playoff against the winner
of the Oceania region, most likely New Zealand.
The playoff will be one match only, and will be hosted by Qatar. The fixture
is scheduled to be played in June.
Which nations are still in contention?
Of the eight teams in the final stage of qualifying, El Salvador, Honduras
and Jamaica have been eliminated.
That leaves Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Panama and United States still with
hopes of making the finals.
What are the remaining fixtures?
March 24
Costa Rica vs. Canada
Panama vs. Honduras
Jamaica vs. El Salvador
Mexico vs. United States
March 27
Canada vs. Jamaica
Honduras vs. Mexico
El Salvador vs. Costa Rica
United States vs. Panama
March 30
Panama vs. Canada
Jamaica vs. Honduras
Mexico vs. El Salvador
Costa Rica vs. United States
How each nation can qualify
1. Canada (25 points)
Coach John Herdman is all but certain to lead Canada to only its second men'
s World Cup finals. The previous appearance came in 1986, when it lost all
three matches to France, Hungary and Soviet Union without scoring a goal.
Unbeaten throughout all 11 matches so far in this phase, Canada is
guaranteed at least fourth and the place in the intercontinental playoff.
Canada needs a maximum of two points to qualify automatically for the World
Cup, but other results are likely to see it over the line even if it doesn't
achieve this.
Additionally, if Panama fails to win at home to Honduras on March 24, Canada
needs only a point at Costa Rica that day to qualify.
United States vs. Mexico on March 24 will be crucial for every team aiming
to make the World Cup finals. Emilee Chinn/Getty Images
2. United States (21)
The 3-0 win over Honduras on Feb. 2 put the United States firmly in control
of its own destiny, but with all three remaining matches against
qualification rivals -- including away fixtures to two of the strongest
CONCACAF nations, Mexico and Costa Rica -- it cannot start planning for
Qatar yet.
- Carlisle: USMNT relief after Honduras win
If USMNT fails to win in Mexico, it will really open up the group. Panama
plays a Honduras team that hasn't won any of its 11 matches, so victory for
Panama would place it only one or two points behind the U.S. (Costa Rica
would move close, too, if it beats Canada.) United States and Panama then
would meet at the Exploria Stadium in Orlando on March 27; defeat for USMNT
could leave it facing, at best, the intercontinental playoff.
However, the United States can allay most fears with victory at Mexico --
that would leave coach Gregg Berhalter needing at most two points from the
remaining two matches.
3. Mexico (21)
While it may seem as though Mexico's task is the same as the United States',
with both on 21 points, El Tri coach Gerardo "Tata" Martino has the benefit
of, on paper, at least, a more favorable fixture list. After hosting the
United States, Mexico then plays at bottom-of-the-table Honduras before
completing its campaign at home to another already-eliminated team, El
Salvador.
It means that failing to win on March 24 may not be so damaging to Mexico as
it could be to USMNT.
If Mexico beats United States, it would need a maximum of two points to
qualify for the finals. If Mexico draws against the U.S., it would need four
points from the remaining fixtures. After a defeat, it would need to win
both games to be certain, though again, other results may mean fewer would
send it to the finals.
4. Panama (17)
Panama's hopes of a second successive World Cup appear slim, and it has to
win at home to Honduras on March 24 to retain any realistic chance of being,
automatically, at least, at its second successive World Cup.
With a win at home to Honduras, Panama will be within touching distance of
one, or both, of Mexico and the United States, depending on the result of
that tie.
Its final two qualifiers are then against the top two nations in the group,
and it would need at least a point at the U.S. before hosting Canada on
March 30.
Its best hope would appear to be a USMNT defeat in Mexico, and then to avoid
defeat in Orlando to take it to the final day. Victory at home to Canada
could then send Panama to the World Cup if USMNT fails at Costa Rica.
5. Costa Rica (16)
Costa Rica, which has been at four of the past five World Cup finals, is up
against it and must win all three games to have a realistic chance of
qualifying automatically.
Three victories and a tally of 25 points gives it a shot, but it will also
need one of Mexico or the United States to have poor results in the three
matches. The fixture list suggests that is more likely to be the United
States, so Costa Rica can only win its matches against Canada and El
Salvador and hope it is within striking distance of USMNT when the two
nations meet in the final qualifier on March 30.
Panama, of course, would also have a say in what Costa Rica may require
should it go down to the final round of qualifiers. | w********0
发帖数: 1211 | 2 其实在给国足出线算分这道题上，美国人的数学甚至比中国人还好。因为要算中国队出
线的可能，只需要把几件事情都取最极端的可能，合在一起，就可以得到那个理论可能
性了。美国队出线，需要考虑各种排列组合。
【在 j*f 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得中美两国的数学都挺好
: *****************
: How many CONCACAF nations qualify for the World Cup?
: CONCACAF Table
: GP PTS GD
: 1 - Canada 11 25 +14
: 2 - USA 11 21 +9
: 3 - Mexico 11 21 +6
: 4 - Panama 11 17 +1
: 5 - Costa Rica 11 16 1
| j*f
发帖数: 1 | 3 有道理。 中国队踢上两三场后， 就只剩一种出线可能了：自己全赢还得别人都输才行
， 简单
【在 w********0 的大作中提到】
: 其实在给国足出线算分这道题上，美国人的数学甚至比中国人还好。因为要算中国队出
: 线的可能，只需要把几件事情都取最极端的可能，合在一起，就可以得到那个理论可能
: 性了。美国队出线，需要考虑各种排列组合。
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