b**w
发帖数: 59 | 1 如果美国政府信用降级，interest rate升高，再导致国债失控，股市岂不死翘翘？ | g8
发帖数: 3784 | 2 美国政府信用降级=不可能
除非是委内瑞拉的评级机构 | b**w
发帖数: 59 | 3 Both Moody's and Finch warned recently. The timetable is between 2015 and
2020, when the annual interests payment exceeds 10% gov tax income, and total debt by federal and local gov exceeds 100% GDP.
In fact, I was wrong. Moody predicted both red lines will be crossed in 2013, if everything else stay perfect.
Don't you think the current stock price is mainly caused by low interests rate in the short term?
【在 g8 的大作中提到】
: 美国政府信用降级=不可能
: 除非是委内瑞拉的评级机构
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4
You will eventually see a phenomenon happening only in banana republics:
market melting UP instead of DOWN. In a normal recession, market falls
downward. In a mass debt-driven currency crisis, government defaults on
their debt by printing an ocean of paper money to cover it all. Hyper-
inflation breaks out as the result to send price of everything to moon
even tho the real purchasing power is sinking. Market thus melts upward.
【在 b**w 的大作中提到】
: 如果美国政府信用降级，interest rate升高，再导致国债失控，股市岂不死翘翘？
| b**w
发帖数: 59 | 5 US gov default before 2050 only has small likelihood to happen. Even if its
credit rating is reduced from Aaa to lower, it's still better than most
countries, including China's.
So, I think near 2015 the US inflation will be big, but not hyper. Before US
complete destructs, a few more things should happen first, including:
* UK's economy gets slaughtered, US gain from that
* Euro falls and creates chaos in Germany, US benefit from that
* Mid-sized regional war near China, not China vs US, but so
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: You will eventually see a phenomenon happening only in banana republics:
: market melting UP instead of DOWN. In a normal recession, market falls
: downward. In a mass debt-driven currency crisis, government defaults on
: their debt by printing an ocean of paper money to cover it all. Hyper-
: inflation breaks out as the result to send price of everything to moon
: even tho the real purchasing power is sinking. Market thus melts upward.
| O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 6
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: You will eventually see a phenomenon happening only in banana republics:
: market melting UP instead of DOWN. In a normal recession, market falls
: downward. In a mass debt-driven currency crisis, government defaults on
: their debt by printing an ocean of paper money to cover it all. Hyper-
: inflation breaks out as the result to send price of everything to moon
: even tho the real purchasing power is sinking. Market thus melts upward.
| l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 7 historically, broad index will rally before interest rate goes down. but now
is not a normal situation - interest rate is abnormally low. |
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