o******e
发帖数: 1001 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: onehouse (whitehouse), 信区: Investment
标 题: 关于投资房地产
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 15 00:24:54 2010, 美东)
看到班上有些朋友想炒房地产的底，开始在FL,AZ,CA等地方抄底。我近期看到一些数据
，不禁对未来10年美国房地产不是很抱乐观态度。
1.从1975-2000年，除去通胀，房价每年平均增长1.4%,从2000年到2006每年增长7%，考
虑到IT技术推进社会发展外，如果假定正常水平2000-2006的增长应该为2%，那么美国
房地产应该从2006年的高峰跌30%才正常。而目前全美平均房价大概跌20%。
2.美国历史上从来没有发生过这样全国性的房地产泡沫,这次的泡沫我想有两个原因：a
.90年代经济长久稳定发展，社会积累了大量剩余财富。b.Credit和投资杠杆的放松。
3.这次泡沫后，由于危机和奥巴马的金融改革，上面a和b的两个条件短期内不再存在，
因而房价增长大概回归到2000前年水平。
从上分析，接下来的几年，房价只有两个可能 |
c*****1
发帖数: 1826 | 2 要是有人告诉你他花了一万五买个房子，月租1两千，做何感想？申明不是我哈 |
s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 3 if you look at the 100 years inflation adjusted housing price for united
states, you will find housing price does not increase relative to the
inflation most of the time. However, at this moment, the housing price is
still about 20%-30% above inflation. |
s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 4 1. Apartment vacancy rates is in historical high
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0614064020100107
We may see rents decline in near future
2.Also, you have to deal with defaulting tenants. With current job situation
and foreclosure trend, the chance you get a bad tenant is high
【在 c*****1 的大作中提到】
: 要是有人告诉你他花了一万五买个房子，月租1两千，做何感想？申明不是我哈
|
s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 5 1. Apartment vacancy rates is in historical high
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0614064020100107
We may see rents decline in near future
2.Also, you have to deal with defaulting tenants. With current job situation
and foreclosure trend, the chance you get a bad tenant is high
【在 c*****1 的大作中提到】
: 要是有人告诉你他花了一万五买个房子，月租1两千，做何感想？申明不是我哈
|
s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 6 if you look at the 100 years inflation adjusted housing price for united
states, you will find housing price does not increase relative to the
inflation most of the time. However, at this moment, the housing price is
still about 20%-30% above inflation. |
o******e
发帖数: 1001 | 7 那你觉得这个平均价格会回归到2000年以前水平？
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: if you look at the 100 years inflation adjusted housing price for united
: states, you will find housing price does not increase relative to the
: inflation most of the time. However, at this moment, the housing price is
: still about 20%-30% above inflation.
|
o******e
发帖数: 1001 | 8 very good points! thanks, particularly point 2. Many people will miss it
when investing.
situation
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: 1. Apartment vacancy rates is in historical high
: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0614064020100107
: We may see rents decline in near future
: 2.Also, you have to deal with defaulting tenants. With current job situation
: and foreclosure trend, the chance you get a bad tenant is high
|
