v****e 发帖数: 19471 | 1 据说本版一位擅长“价值投资”的大牛抠顶了,要烧特这市场屠打稀。。。LOL
Warren Buffett: 'Quite Clear Stocks Are Cheaper Than Bonds'
Posted By: Alex Crippen | Executive Producer
cnbc.com
| 05 Oct 2010 | 02:49 PM ET
Warren Buffett says it is "quite clear stocks are cheaper than bonds" right
now, but notes that relationship will change eventually when confidence in
the economy is inevitably restored.
In an appearance earlier today (Tuesday) at the Fortune Most Powerful Women
Conference in Washington, Buffett said he "can't imagine" choosing bonds
over stocks at current prices, but concedes that's what many investors have
been doing because of a "lack of confidence" in the economy's future. "They
're making a mistake, the ones that are buying the bonds" at record low
yields.
In this video clip, he tells Fortune's Carol Loomis:
"It's quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can't imagine
anybody having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities, a
diversified group of equities. But people do because they, the lack of
confidence. But that's what makes for the attractive prices. If they had
their confidence back, they wouldn't be selling at these prices. And believe
me, it will come back over time."
It's not a new opinion for Buffett. Back in early 2009, he was writing
about an "extraordinary" U.S. Treasury bond "bubble."
Fortune's Street Sweep blog points out that the 10-year Treasury yield has
dropped to under 2.5 percent from 4 percent over the past six months.
FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair told CNBC there "a bit of a bond bubble now",
longtime bond bull Goldman Sachs believes bonds have peaked and will be
heading lower from here, and Pimco's Steve Rodosky tells Dow Jones today
that "the best day in Treasurys is probably behind us." He hasn't bought
them since July. |
r*m 发帖数: 16380 | 2 是bond太贵,而不是stock太便宜。我也纳闷咋会有人去买2%yeild的东东。
老巴说话狡猾狡猾的。 |
v****e 发帖数: 19471 | 3 便宜和贵都是相对的。当老巴,Bill Gross,高盛三家一起出来说Treasury到顶了的时
候,资金的大体流向就只有一个:equity. 资本是逐利的,不能睡觉。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 是bond太贵,而不是stock太便宜。我也纳闷咋会有人去买2%yeild的东东。 : 老巴说话狡猾狡猾的。
|
s*k 发帖数: 2941 | 4 俺的high yield bond (junk bond)连分红带价格上涨在一个月内就是3%
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 是bond太贵,而不是stock太便宜。我也纳闷咋会有人去买2%yeild的东东。 : 老巴说话狡猾狡猾的。
|
r*m 发帖数: 16380 | |
c*****r 发帖数: 8227 | |
g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 7 资金还有一个流向,就是消失。deleveraging是干嘛的。
老巴以后也不能狂写call了,金融改革的结果,他也得出更多的collateral. 这个也是
deleveraging.
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 便宜和贵都是相对的。当老巴,Bill Gross,高盛三家一起出来说Treasury到顶了的时 : 候,资金的大体流向就只有一个:equity. 资本是逐利的,不能睡觉。
|
b*******e 发帖数: 6389 | 8 //hand
俺还是考虑“长期国债12月到顶”。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 老WB的话,延迟3-6个月后照办
|
x*******1 发帖数: 28835 | 9 It will disappear one day because they never existed ever. |
R******n 发帖数: 687 | 10 When did Bill say bond is topping? I thought he is still heavily in treasury
and believes 2.5% yield on 10 year is the "new norm". |
|
|
y***r 发帖数: 16594 | 11 实话说,我也不知道那些基金经理咋想的。那么低的利率还要死冲进去找安全。
看了老巴的发言,我懂了。其实这些fund manager都是sb给人送钱的。
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 便宜和贵都是相对的。当老巴,Bill Gross,高盛三家一起出来说Treasury到顶了的时 : 候,资金的大体流向就只有一个:equity. 资本是逐利的,不能睡觉。
|
g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 12 PIMCO年初倒是说equity比bond好。什么best days for bond is probably behind us.
后来怎样?呵呵。
听Bill Gross与El-Erian的最近bloomberg谈话,以后长期很难有高于8%的回报。
treasury
【在 R******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : When did Bill say bond is topping? I thought he is still heavily in treasury : and believes 2.5% yield on 10 year is the "new norm".
|
j*****7 发帖数: 4348 | 13 先搞清楚大家说的bond是指treasury only, 还是所有的fixed income都算上。
现如今的fixed income是不便宜, 但不代表equity就一定便宜。
基本上就是大家在赌美国会不会走日本的老路, 目前看来蛮像的。 |
v****e 发帖数: 19471 | 14 比较当年的日本和今天的美国,目光不要局限在经济领域。日本当时翻不了身,是它的
国际地位决定的。
【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 先搞清楚大家说的bond是指treasury only, 还是所有的fixed income都算上。 : 现如今的fixed income是不便宜, 但不代表equity就一定便宜。 : 基本上就是大家在赌美国会不会走日本的老路, 目前看来蛮像的。
|
c*****r 发帖数: 8227 | 15 10Y Treasury yield to reach 2% is not so far away。。。 |
c*****r 发帖数: 8227 | 16 the primary buyer is the Fed - QE, QE2...
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 实话说,我也不知道那些基金经理咋想的。那么低的利率还要死冲进去找安全。 : 看了老巴的发言,我懂了。其实这些fund manager都是sb给人送钱的。
|
R******n 发帖数: 687 | 17 This I do I agree. US can keep USD low while maintain its global currency
status.
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 比较当年的日本和今天的美国,目光不要局限在经济领域。日本当时翻不了身,是它的 : 国际地位决定的。
|
s**********n 发帖数: 868 | 18 便宜不便宜是相对的,资产总要有地方放。只要未来的十年不是大规模通缩的十年,哪
怕经济不增长,Equity也明显比bond便宜,这就足够了。
【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 先搞清楚大家说的bond是指treasury only, 还是所有的fixed income都算上。 : 现如今的fixed income是不便宜, 但不代表equity就一定便宜。 : 基本上就是大家在赌美国会不会走日本的老路, 目前看来蛮像的。
|
c*****r 发帖数: 8227 | 19 If.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 便宜不便宜是相对的,资产总要有地方放。只要未来的十年不是大规模通缩的十年,哪 : 怕经济不增长,Equity也明显比bond便宜,这就足够了。
|
R******n 发帖数: 687 | 20 我记得年初Bill Gross说过utility stocks and telecom stocks好,而不是所有的
stocks吧。今年好像他们一直在pump treasury。我的长期投资一直跟着Bill说的做,
收益不错。
us.
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : PIMCO年初倒是说equity比bond好。什么best days for bond is probably behind us. : 后来怎样?呵呵。 : 听Bill Gross与El-Erian的最近bloomberg谈话,以后长期很难有高于8%的回报。 : : treasury
|
|
|
c*****r 发帖数: 8227 | 21 In Treasure = In Fed
In Fed, We Trust :)
【在 R******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我记得年初Bill Gross说过utility stocks and telecom stocks好,而不是所有的 : stocks吧。今年好像他们一直在pump treasury。我的长期投资一直跟着Bill说的做, : 收益不错。 : : us.
|
s**********n 发帖数: 868 | 22 What probability do you think that scenario will happen?
The way that the market is trading the bonds more expensive than the quity
by such a wide wide margin is only commensurate with a high probability of
strong deflation, much higher than I could reasonably imagine.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : If.
|
c*****r 发帖数: 8227 | 23 IMHO, Japan is a mirror.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : What probability do you think that scenario will happen? : The way that the market is trading the bonds more expensive than the quity : by such a wide wide margin is only commensurate with a high probability of : strong deflation, much higher than I could reasonably imagine.
|