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b********t
发帖数: 8181 | | b********t
发帖数: 8181 | | N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 3 I have said it many times: Whoever longing the financial stocks are tying
their portfolio to a time bomb.
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Dan Norcini:
The primary drivers in gold and silver today had to do with concerns over
currency devaluation as well as securitized debt problems and the
implications associated with it. Here is what Jim Sinclair had to say:
Jim Sinclair: “Each time that happens an item of collateral on the
securitized debt publicly dies. That is why this is dynamite that people
will realize very soon. This is one reason gold is up hard today.”
Norcini continues:
“That collateralized debt obligation is now effectively worthless because
the collateral behind the debt can no longer be collected. The banks cannot
go and get it.
Let’s say you have 10 mortgages at $1 million a piece, the sum total of
those mortgages are $10 million. So, the banks took the 10 mortgages and
bundled them together into a collateralized debt obligation or CDO with a
face value of $10 million.
They then sold that new entity that they created to an investment group of
some sort, a pension fund, hedge fund, etc. promising them a yield of let’s
say 7%. The sales pitch would emphasize the fact that this CDO was backed
by real collateral. In the event of loan defaults by the borrowers, the
banks would tell the buyer of the CDO that the collateral behind the loan
could be sold to recapture any potential losses on the part of the purchaser
.
Everything seemed to work fine until the defaults began and the foreclosure
process kicked into high gear. The foreclosure process has exposed fatal
flaws in the system and the flaw is that the banks cannot prove clear
ownership of the mortgage.
Consequently, they are then barred from foreclosing on the property.
Because they can no longer foreclose on the properties, the CDO is now
effectively worthless.
The hedge funds and the pension funds cannot now sell these CDO’s on the
open market, so how are they going to recover their original investment?
Perhaps you may say that won’t be a problem because these instruments were
insured. The problem is now the credit default swap or the insurance policy
that was purchased to protect against default assumes that the insurer has
the financial wherewithal or resources to make good on the claim.
If there were only a small number of these problem CDO’s this would not be
an issue. But as the number of the foreclosures continue to skyrocket, and
more and more banks are prohibited from seizing the collateral behind the
property, the sheer magnitude of the number of claims presented to the
insurer will overwhelm their balance sheet.
In effect what you have is an insurance company which doesn’t have enough
money to pay off the claims. Compounding the problem is the fact that the
CDO’s and credit default swaps related to these claims form a mass network
of interdependence. This then ripples through the entire system and creates
a domino effect which can cause the failure of entities creating the next
financial crisis.
Ultimately the Federal Reserve will be asked to step in and buy up the now
worthless CDO’s and put those on its balance sheet. In order to do this
the Federal Reserve will have to engage in massive quantitative easing,
taking onto its balance sheet the worthless CDO’s in exchange for newly
issued treasuries. | l*****t
发帖数: 8319 | 4 这下亏了。周五刚刚扔了faz，全仓的tza，是不是要死的很惨？ | b******r
发帖数: 16603 | | i********g
发帖数: 479 | | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 7 shorting dollar like crazy |
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