r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 1 今天收盘前的大反弹以及盘后GOOG的ER可能给人感觉pullback已经结束了，不过，今天
的low多半不是the low，因此下面最可能的走法是SPX rebound to higher high后
pullback，但也不能完全排除明天继续pullback的可能，毕竟从SPY daily图看，
Shooting Star plus Hanging Man都是有反转可能的棒棒。
下面谈谈为什么我说今天的low不是the low，当然最bullish的情况是两三周后才visit
today’s low。
Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50)还是很高，see highlighted in red
，虽然后面都有higher high，但是今天的low是guaranteed will be revisited。
Institutional Selling Action from Stocktiming. 这个象极了四月份的情形，
institutions selling一直在增加，牛牛还是要小心。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the
arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:
1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS
BEARISH
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6. | w****k
发帖数: 10542 | 2 k，股市不是涨就是跌，都让他给说全了。
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【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 今天收盘前的大反弹以及盘后GOOG的ER可能给人感觉pullback已经结束了，不过，今天
: 的low多半不是the low，因此下面最可能的走法是SPX rebound to higher high后
: pullback，但也不能完全排除明天继续pullback的可能，毕竟从SPY daily图看，
: Shooting Star plus Hanging Man都是有反转可能的棒棒。
: 下面谈谈为什么我说今天的low不是the low，当然最bullish的情况是两三周后才visit
: today’s low。
: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50)还是很高，see highlighted in red
: ，虽然后面都有higher high，但是今天的low是guaranteed will be revisited。
: Institutional Selling Action from Stocktiming. 这个象极了四月份的情形，
: institutions selling一直在增加，牛牛还是要小心。
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