u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 1 On Sep 30th 2010:
* Book value per share: $21.17
* Tangible book value per share: $12.91
* Earning Asset: $1902 billion ( Total Asset: $2456 billion)
* Deposit: $982 billion
* Shareholder Equity: $232 billion
About "Mortgage banking"
* Total mortgage service fee: $3.7 billion ( typically 25 - 45 basis points
of the unpaid principal balance)
* about 45% are non-conforming loans, 55% sold to Fannie Mae
"Mortgage Banking" Risk analysis:
* if 20% of the non-conforming were forced to be bought back, the bank would
have to take loss on those non-conforming loans since only those losing
loans will be bought back.
* The loss of those bought back losing loans could go as high as 25%
Based on the worst case above, the maximum total potential "mortgage banking
" loss would be estimated to be around $60 billion
On this worst case, the shareholder equity needs to be reduced by $60
billion ( or 25.8% )
On Sep 30th, the stock was closed at $13.10, so the worst case of all is to
have a price declined to $9.72.
Positive side analysis:
(1) On Sep 30th, the market price of $13.10 already priced in some of the
risks analyzed above. So the starting price could be $14 instead of $13.10.
When $14 was used, the lowest price would be $10.40
(2) The bank might find a way to avoid buying back 20% non-conforming loan.
If only 10% were forced to be bought back, the lowest price would be $11.40
(3) The bank might not need to take 25% loss on those bought back loans.
If only 12.5% loss were taking on average, the lowest price would be $11.40
以上都是个人意见，也许有很多错误,抛专引玉，仅供讨论。 | c******8
发帖数: 3170 | 2 这一波是考验银行底线的。
加仓的不必； 抄底的其实可以， 但如果这一波上不去的话，那就没什么钱途了 | u****d
发帖数: 23938 | | u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 4 It was said that BAC may lose $12 billion on the repurchase of those bad
home loans. | u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 5 According to bloomberg, the nominal value for those loans is estimated as
625 billion | c******8
发帖数: 3170 | 6 holly cow !!!!!
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: According to bloomberg, the nominal value for those loans is estimated as
: 625 billion
| b*****g
发帖数: 983 | 7 12b is just 5% of it market cap, not a big deal at all
This time, there is no leverage on these securities, unlike the one last
year. My bet: good time to load.
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: It was said that BAC may lose $12 billion on the repurchase of those bad
: home loans.
| c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 8 20% is enough to crash the whole banking system.
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: According to bloomberg, the nominal value for those loans is estimated as
: 625 billion
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 9 Those are seasoned morgage backed secure loans.
Which mean, usually the home value now is greater than the loan nominal
value. If the bank can grab the home at default, the loan usually won't
lose money since the home owner's downpayment and prepayment will be used to
absorb the possible losses.
So it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to take 20% loss on those loans. And only a
portion of them will be bad loans.
If those loans are paid back orderly, the return is at about 7.5%. |
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