m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 1 I should charge 100 weibi for this:)
Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion
cash.
247 million goodwill and other intangibles.
So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment.
Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar.
For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280
million annualized.
So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3.
So this is relative safe unless
1) Another recession
2) Fake Accounting
3) They are stupid and use the cash to buy another company.
Use the method you can see why I bought KEM last week and VSH today. |
p****r 发帖数: 4348 | 2 thanks
equipment.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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a*****e 发帖数: 16445 | |
e****q 发帖数: 1668 | |
p**p 发帖数: 742 | |
h***a 发帖数: 290 | |
r****n 发帖数: 639 | 7 Thanks a lot! 我给你发包子吧!
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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s*******e 发帖数: 68 | 8 Thanks for your analysis, I agree with all except one thing ,maybe I don't
understand..
"Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollars"
The market value of outstanding shares = 170 millions shares * 14.8 =2500
millions. Then how do you arrive at 833 million dollars?
equipment.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 9 tangibles equity is 1,667 Million
So 2,500 million - 1,667 Million = Enterprises Value 833 Million.
Do you still have the KEM? It's up 4 days on the road.
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Thanks for your analysis, I agree with all except one thing ,maybe I don't : understand.. : "Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollars" : The market value of outstanding shares = 170 millions shares * 14.8 =2500 : millions. Then how do you arrive at 833 million dollars? : : equipment.
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S********t 发帖数: 1600 | |
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u********e 发帖数: 4950 | |
s*******e 发帖数: 68 | 12 Now I see how you did your calculation!
I'm still hold KEM tight, almost 20% gain, and plan to hold a little longer
if the trend continues.
You and Yougong are one of the guys I respect in this board.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : tangibles equity is 1,667 Million : So 2,500 million - 1,667 Million = Enterprises Value 833 Million. : Do you still have the KEM? It's up 4 days on the road.
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a****g 发帖数: 8131 | 13 cool
equipment.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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j*****h 发帖数: 3292 | 14 大牛, 我也是喜欢用cash income 来计算
但AVX 是属于high cyclical 的,如果目前是peak,
那算出来的可能是严重biased |
E*******r 发帖数: 370 | 15 赞!
股版难得一见的value investing帖子! |
l******n 发帖数: 9344 | 16 good FA, but from the chart, it is overbought and the correction is coming .
.. I do not think it is a good entry point.
equipment.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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j*****h 发帖数: 3292 | 17 你是用的自定义的EV?
再假定你的tangible equity 实际是指net tangible asset.
那你的2500M- 1667M 实际是指市场对net book value 的溢价?
那还不如直接用P/B 指标 = 2500/1667, 怎么会成了enterprise value?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp
Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest
and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : tangibles equity is 1,667 Million : So 2,500 million - 1,667 Million = Enterprises Value 833 Million. : Do you still have the KEM? It's up 4 days on the road.
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j*****h 发帖数: 3292 | 18 那就是混合型估价方法?
也就是说目前市场价2500M,资产表上净值就有1667M, 那溢价部份833M (2500M-1667M)
根据最近peak QT的现金赢利annualize*4 =280M
那就是说AVX 企业要花约3年时间 (833/280), 把市场溢价部份赚出来
equipment.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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M*****a 发帖数: 7122 | 19 Do you compare this number with other companies inthe industry? Or 3 is
already a great number itself? I'm not too familiar with enterprise/cash
ratio |
m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 20 Very true. I use this measure quite a bit.
Just like you buy a business, you need to find out how long it will take to
get your money back.
1667M)
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 那就是混合型估价方法? : 也就是说目前市场价2500M,资产表上净值就有1667M, 那溢价部份833M (2500M-1667M) : 根据最近peak QT的现金赢利annualize*4 =280M : 那就是说AVX 企业要花约3年时间 (833/280), 把市场溢价部份赚出来 : : equipment.
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m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 21 This is true. How do you know we are at the cyclical peak?
Maybe at the beginning of this cyclical cycle.
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 大牛, 我也是喜欢用cash income 来计算 : 但AVX 是属于high cyclical 的,如果目前是peak, : 那算出来的可能是严重biased
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e****q 发帖数: 1668 | 22 "For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70
million 280
million annualized."
I didn't get this 280 number. Can you explain from which statement
you calculate this?
billion
equipment.
dollar.
million 280
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should charge 100 weibi for this:) : Total Equity: 1,914 Million dollars, almost not debt with about 1 billion : cash. : 247 million goodwill and other intangibles. : So tangibles equity should be: 1,667 Million with only 250 million equipment. : Market value 2,500 million implies enterprise value 833 million dollar. : For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 million 280 : million annualized. : So implied Enterprises/Cash flow = 3. : So this is relative safe unless
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c***y 发帖数: 286 | 23 cash flow
【在 e****q 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : "For last quarter, earning + depreciation - capital spending 70 : million 280 : million annualized." : I didn't get this 280 number. Can you explain from which statement : you calculate this? : : billion : equipment. : dollar. : million 280
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c***y 发帖数: 286 | 24 What do you think about AYR? Would it mimic your trade on these two stocks?
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : This is true. How do you know we are at the cyclical peak? : Maybe at the beginning of this cyclical cycle.
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