L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 1 Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
line and ready for the decisive move.
in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
compare to the 2004 one, and therefore gives a feeling of more volatile, but
still within 38.2% retracement, which indicates a likelihood of breakout.
mention of 2004 remind me a few things: that year i got a few dollars left
after paying the necessities. first thing i did was wiring some money back
to China for 定金 of a nice upscale condo that was just start construction.
I bought blindly because i didn't have time to go back. Just have a feeling
that when people get rich, what they want first is a decent living space,
not crowded in a small room with 3 generations. (it turn out right, most of
my colleagues were telling me buy RE in the US coz that was the THING at the
time). The rest of money i put in a amtd account and started investing (not
trading) myself. From MSN money's fund screener, i pick up EEM, EWZ, EWW.
all three were emerging market ishare funds. at the time, guru was saying
don't put over 5% in the emerging market. hell, all 3 beats spx by a wide
margin. |
D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 2 well said, good post, may I ask your opinion of TIBX, thanks .I put half of
my money in tibx
,
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 3 谢谢大夫回来发贴，青蛙们又有了信心
青蛙wsn们，挺住。。。。
,
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 4 tibx had risen a lot since its last base at about 10. i picked it at the end
of Oct after it finish a 3wk tight. it didn't get too far from it. I'm
afraid it is near the next base formation. I wouldn't over weight on it. |
D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 5 got it , because tibx er is on 20dec, so I think there should be a er run, I
will closely monitor it, thanks Lexian!
end
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: tibx had risen a lot since its last base at about 10. i picked it at the end
: of Oct after it finish a 3wk tight. it didn't get too far from it. I'm
: afraid it is near the next base formation. I wouldn't over weight on it.
|
k*******n
发帖数: 8891 | |
b*******2
发帖数: 3202 | 7 the dapan will go down to 1130 to get enough energy and then test the 1120
again. |
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 8 next week will be low volume. after that will have some eco data coming out.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
A*********5
发帖数: 340 | 9 I hope this will be proved to be true...........
Pray...... |
t*Q
发帖数: 7840 | 10 大夫是从北方来地， 对那儿熟悉。
,
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
|
|
d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 11 The market might go up this time for a year end rally, and might again move
even higher as investors realize that the recession is over.
However, the fundamentals in terms of 10-year trailing PE ratio (21) for the
S&P500 is above historical average (16) at this point. Unless the
corporate earnings jump tremendously in the future, high PE today does not
indicate high return for the SP500 in the next couple of years.
,
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 12
move
the
I'm not sure i understand your "10-yr trailing PE" very well. when talk
about trailing PE, most people refer to the "12 month trailing PE" ie the "
current PE". from this page on SP500's web site http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/market-attributes/en/us, you can find the raw data in spreadsheet. i see the current PE of sp500 as of last quarter is 14.97(base on operating earning, taking out one time charge). too see another period that has the same number 14.XX, you have to go all the way back to 1989-1990. Back then, investing is a few rich people's game. buying and selling requires a call to the "full service" broker and cost a percentage of the value traded. Internet and flourish of discount brokers have greatly increased the participants and fund in the market. I have to say the market is fundamentally different for the last 10 yrs compare to anytime before. and the average 12m trailing PE of last 10 yr is 19.32
another way to look at it is the actual earning per share, which is 21.43 as
of last quarter, estimated 21.68 for this quarter. that is at the level of
early part of 2006, when spx was at 1300 level. unless market anticipates
another sharp downturn in earning (double dip recession for example), we are
at a 15% discount by historic standard, no counting inflation of the last 4
-5 yrs.
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: The market might go up this time for a year end rally, and might again move
: even higher as investors realize that the recession is over.
: However, the fundamentals in terms of 10-year trailing PE ratio (21) for the
: S&P500 is above historical average (16) at this point. Unless the
: corporate earnings jump tremendously in the future, high PE today does not
: indicate high return for the SP500 in the next couple of years.
:
: ,
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 13 唉，你又惯着我的wishful thinking了：）
做多了一些SPY SPREAD
2004,
reach
realize
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
a****g
发帖数: 8131 | 14 这次我跟大牛穿一条裤子了
非常荣幸
【在 m********0 的大作中提到】
: 唉，你又惯着我的wishful thinking了：）
: 做多了一些SPY SPREAD
:
: 2004,
: reach
: realize
|
S********t
发帖数: 1600 | 15 Lexian's words are convincing, as always :-) |
m***o
发帖数: 1738 | 16 大夫，现在什么股票现在值得买进啊？
talk
the "
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/market-attributes/en/us, you
can find the raw data in spreadsheet. i see the current PE of sp500 as
of last quarter is 14.97(base on operating earning, taking out one time
charge). too see another period that has the same number 14.XX, you have
to go all the way back to 1989-1990. Back then, investing is a few rich
people's game. buying and selling requires a call to the "full service"
broker and cost a pe: rcentage of the value traded. Internet and
flourish of discount brokers have greatly increased the participants and
fund in the market. I have to say the market is fundamentally different
for the last 10 yrs compare to anytime before. and the average 12m
trailing PE of last 10 yr is 19.32
21.43 as
level of
anticipates
we are
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: move
: the
: I'm not sure i understand your "10-yr trailing PE" very well. when talk
: about trailing PE, most people refer to the "12 month trailing PE" ie the "
: current PE". from this page on SP500's web site http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/market-attributes/en/us, you can find the raw data in spreadsheet. i see the current PE of sp500 as of last quarter is 14.97(base on operating earning, taking out one time charge). too see another period that has the same number 14.XX, you have to go all the way back to 1989-1990. Back then, investing is a few rich people's game. buying and selling requires a call to the "full service" broker and cost a percentage of the value traded. Internet and flourish of discount brokers have greatly increased the participants and fund in the market. I have to say the market is fundamentally different for the last 10 yrs compare to anytime before. and the average 12m trailing PE of last 10 yr is 19.32
: another way to look at it is the actual earning per share, which is 21.43 as
: of last quarter, estimated 21.68 for this quarter. that is at the level of
: early part of 2006, when spx was at 1300 level. unless market anticipates
: another sharp downturn in earning (double dip recession for example), we are
|
x***z
发帖数: 146 | |
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 18 谁都知道长期趋势是向上，但是从下周开始直接北上的可能性是0。今天的情况与2004
并没有多大相同之处。2004一整年都在1075与1150之间调整，突破1150也并非从1150开
始的，而是从1100没有任何停顿地直到1180，2004与现在相比不知能说明什么问题，难
道今年也要调整一整年？还是2004预示了今年只需调整一个月？
现在的趋势明显是调整没有到位，北上之前再次下探是必须的，从1140一路到1226，然
后仅仅下调25%后继续一飞冲天的可能性有，但是小于50%。另外，如果下调，两周之内
也可以摔死千军万马，大牛在鼓舞士气的同时，也应该提醒牛牛们别摔断腿。
,
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
g**********7
发帖数: 2026 | 19 大夫，从你的图形上看,似乎RSI，MACD都支持大盘向下调整。
俺是新手，没有历史感。我觉得这次调整很象今年２月份的（虽然那时候俺还没有炒股
）调整，幅度比较小，等中国年底加息的利空释放，以及西班牙，葡萄牙的潜在利空明
确，然后再向北。就下面两周来看，似乎利多因素不足以只撑大盘突破前期高点。
总体的大盘观感，非常脆弱，非常VOLITILE，在这种情况下，做好短期向下的准备还是
有点必要的。 |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 20 Happy Thanksgiving. hope the market's rally today don't turn into a big
turkey:-)
today's rally came with subdue volume before holiday thus less convincing.
However, many leading bulls see high volume surge. One other sign which is
very bullish, also what i have been waiting to see for a long time - the
market rises in the face of rising dollar. That hasn't happened during the
last 2 months of bull run.
some bears still daydreaming about 孟良崮， while in fact, the front line is
already pushed to 长江岸. |
|
|
j*****a
发帖数: 51 | 21 大夫, what is your opinion about BRCM, will ride even higher? $50 or $55?
Thanks
is
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Happy Thanksgiving. hope the market's rally today don't turn into a big
: turkey:-)
: today's rally came with subdue volume before holiday thus less convincing.
: However, many leading bulls see high volume surge. One other sign which is
: very bullish, also what i have been waiting to see for a long time - the
: market rises in the face of rising dollar. That hasn't happened during the
: last 2 months of bull run.
: some bears still daydreaming about 孟良崮， while in fact, the front line is
: already pushed to 长江岸.
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 22 BRCM will have some resistant around 50. |
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 23 it is a bit too early to claim bull's victory.
Marlet is still in a tight range stucking for finding out directions.
with holiday low volume, it can't break out or down either way.
post holiday, if the sales numbers is good. bulls may ride those "figures"
to break out upside.
We will know very quickly.
is
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Happy Thanksgiving. hope the market's rally today don't turn into a big
: turkey:-)
: today's rally came with subdue volume before holiday thus less convincing.
: However, many leading bulls see high volume surge. One other sign which is
: very bullish, also what i have been waiting to see for a long time - the
: market rises in the face of rising dollar. That hasn't happened during the
: last 2 months of bull run.
: some bears still daydreaming about 孟良崮， while in fact, the front line is
: already pushed to 长江岸.
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 24 是长江北岸吧。请记住，想要过江，要么跳水，要么坐飞机，即使坐飞机，也要小心被
打下来。
你的作战方式跟常凯伸有得一拼。光头的作战方式是，国军如果失手，则要么keep
quiet, 要么发通告：国军已成功躲过共匪之围剿，已经逃了。如果共匪失手，则电告
全国：扫清共匪，国军之胜利指日可待。所以，光头的下场就是，蜗居一岛，喊了一辈
子反攻大陆，最后客死异乡。
还是讲讲打仗吧，书上说作战讲究天时，地利，人和。古板人熊牛不分，是牛人还是人
牛不得而知，何况有些熊人头上没长角却偏偏喜欢冒充牛人，所以我们先不谈人。所谓
天时地利就是在哪里打，什么时候打。算算时间查查地图，看看孟良崮战役是什么时候
喊打的，在什么位置开打的。战役都快结束了，已经在在打扫战场肃清残敌了，有人竟
还没有感觉到，问敌人在哪里。估计这样的人，要么是一赵括，只会纸上谈兵，要么是
被杀懵了，不知所措。从孟良崮都被打到沈阳了，还在想着渡江呢。要过江，至少也要
先过孟良崮吧。
事实上，现在的大盘形势仍然无法确定是上是下，大盘纠缠在均线之间，可上可下。大
概因为指数接近底部，所以牛眼看牛，认为迟早会向上，这跟看到别人八十了喊他迟早
会死但却不敢喊他明天一定会死一样，没有多大意义。就像大家都说翁帆很快要做寡妇
了，可人家老杨就是不死，并且正在enjoy his happy time.
现在大盘接近到底，但是现在并没有明显的翻转信号，也没有明显的趋势，但这种隔天
大涨大跌的情况更可能是向下，并且一旦向下，几天就可以摔死很多牛牛，因为这种不
稳状态一旦选择了方向，不管向上向下，会很猛。大盘应该进一步下探，因为从高点的
调整幅度太小，但现在牛熊再加上人都在眼巴巴地等Christmas rally，所以现在才不
上不下。如果不谈下跌幅度，即使向下，最长两周内到底是确定无疑的。但是，如果向
下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑。当然，也可能这两天快速突破均线开始向
上，如果发生了，什么问题也说明不了。股市里没有恒定的牛熊，进可攻退可守是生存
之道，在情况不确定的情况下，别瞎喊，是积德。
最后，关于现在谁在daydreaming, 有四种可能，牛在daydreaming，熊在daydreaming
，牛熊都在daydreaming，两者都没有daydreaming，当然开可以加上个Not Applicable
的选项。用四分之一或五分之一的可能性来下结论，是疯牛行为。
Finally, it would be a pleasure if you're the enemy in a battlefield because
everything from you are predictable, including your watering behavior on
this board;)
is
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Happy Thanksgiving. hope the market's rally today don't turn into a big
: turkey:-)
: today's rally came with subdue volume before holiday thus less convincing.
: However, many leading bulls see high volume surge. One other sign which is
: very bullish, also what i have been waiting to see for a long time - the
: market rises in the face of rising dollar. That hasn't happened during the
: last 2 months of bull run.
: some bears still daydreaming about 孟良崮， while in fact, the front line is
: already pushed to 长江岸.
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 25
现在大盘接近到底，但是现在并没有明显的翻转信号，也没有明显的趋势，但这种隔天
大涨大跌的情况更可能是向下，并且一旦向下，几天就可以摔死很多牛牛，因为这种不
稳状态一旦选择了方向，不管向上向下，会很猛。大盘应该进一步下探，因为从高点的
调整幅度太小，但现在牛熊再加上人都在眼巴巴地等Christmas rally，所以现在才不
上不下。如果不谈下跌幅度，即使向下，最长两周内到底是确定无疑的。但是，如果向
下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑。当然，也可能这两天快速突破均线开始向
上，如果发生了，什么问题也说明不了。股市里没有恒定的牛熊，进可攻退可守是生存
之道，在情况不确定的情况下，别瞎喊，是积德。
i like your way of argument: if the market goes the way you say, didn't mean
you win, if the market didn't go your way, of course you lose. In this
sense, you are more in the line of 流氓逻辑 that makes 常凯生 famous. Don't
you agree? The fact is, i pay attention to the market, not people, except
the very few who dont' have much to show on a stock board, however loves to
gossip and moan like a long tongued bitch.
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 是长江北岸吧。请记住，想要过江，要么跳水，要么坐飞机，即使坐飞机，也要小心被
: 打下来。
: 你的作战方式跟常凯伸有得一拼。光头的作战方式是，国军如果失手，则要么keep
: quiet, 要么发通告：国军已成功躲过共匪之围剿，已经逃了。如果共匪失手，则电告
: 全国：扫清共匪，国军之胜利指日可待。所以，光头的下场就是，蜗居一岛，喊了一辈
: 子反攻大陆，最后客死异乡。
: 还是讲讲打仗吧，书上说作战讲究天时，地利，人和。古板人熊牛不分，是牛人还是人
: 牛不得而知，何况有些熊人头上没长角却偏偏喜欢冒充牛人，所以我们先不谈人。所谓
: 天时地利就是在哪里打，什么时候打。算算时间查查地图，看看孟良崮战役是什么时候
: 喊打的，在什么位置开打的。战役都快结束了，已经在在打扫战场肃清残敌了，有人竟
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 26 "如果向下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑"
这个是嘛意思？捂捂不就得了。捂帮俗家弟子也可以搞定啊。5帮主不正好大捞特捞嘛。
老五请来的高人助拳？
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 是长江北岸吧。请记住，想要过江，要么跳水，要么坐飞机，即使坐飞机，也要小心被
: 打下来。
: 你的作战方式跟常凯伸有得一拼。光头的作战方式是，国军如果失手，则要么keep
: quiet, 要么发通告：国军已成功躲过共匪之围剿，已经逃了。如果共匪失手，则电告
: 全国：扫清共匪，国军之胜利指日可待。所以，光头的下场就是，蜗居一岛，喊了一辈
: 子反攻大陆，最后客死异乡。
: 还是讲讲打仗吧，书上说作战讲究天时，地利，人和。古板人熊牛不分，是牛人还是人
: 牛不得而知，何况有些熊人头上没长角却偏偏喜欢冒充牛人，所以我们先不谈人。所谓
: 天时地利就是在哪里打，什么时候打。算算时间查查地图，看看孟良崮战役是什么时候
: 喊打的，在什么位置开打的。战役都快结束了，已经在在打扫战场肃清残敌了，有人竟
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 27 No comment. But, it's said that a perfect way to play with a predictable
enemy is to agitate him first then kill;) However, this is the holiday
season. So, have a happy Thanksgiving!
mean
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: 现在大盘接近到底，但是现在并没有明显的翻转信号，也没有明显的趋势，但这种隔天
: 大涨大跌的情况更可能是向下，并且一旦向下，几天就可以摔死很多牛牛，因为这种不
: 稳状态一旦选择了方向，不管向上向下，会很猛。大盘应该进一步下探，因为从高点的
: 调整幅度太小，但现在牛熊再加上人都在眼巴巴地等Christmas rally，所以现在才不
: 上不下。如果不谈下跌幅度，即使向下，最长两周内到底是确定无疑的。但是，如果向
: 下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑。当然，也可能这两天快速突破均线开始向
: 上，如果发生了，什么问题也说明不了。股市里没有恒定的牛熊，进可攻退可守是生存
: 之道，在情况不确定的情况下，别瞎喊，是积德。
: i like your way of argument: if the market goes the way you say, didn't mean
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 28 如果真是这样，那股市就太好玩了，只要买就行了。举两个例子，如果买的是option，
看错了方向，是否捂捂不就得了？如果是小散户，口袋不深，买股票，看错了方向，大
跌而没有加仓资金，是否捂捂不就得了？当然可以捂，但是捂了半天，最后持平或亏，
结果尽是耽误工夫瞎折腾。"如果向下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑"，就是
这意思。
嘛。
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: "如果向下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑"
: 这个是嘛意思？捂捂不就得了。捂帮俗家弟子也可以搞定啊。5帮主不正好大捞特捞嘛。
: 老五请来的高人助拳？
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 29 牵强了吧。
option，多数人也就小玩玩，就得准备全报销的呀，不然不是赌徒嘛。小玩玩不会成填
坑尸体的。
小散户，一般也有工作吧，也有401K吧。如果跌，定投就是dollar average down。只
要long-term是北上，这一招还是有效的。没尸体填坑一说。
这个版上当前的风气，抄底风还是比较盛的，说明都还有现金。如果像你讲的两个礼拜
的调整，那还不高兴坏了。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 如果真是这样，那股市就太好玩了，只要买就行了。举两个例子，如果买的是option，
: 看错了方向，是否捂捂不就得了？如果是小散户，口袋不深，买股票，看错了方向，大
: 跌而没有加仓资金，是否捂捂不就得了？当然可以捂，但是捂了半天，最后持平或亏，
: 结果尽是耽误工夫瞎折腾。"如果向下，一到两周内会有无数的牛牛尸体来填坑"，就是
: 这意思。
:
: 嘛。
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 30 你把可能结论的条件都给否了，也就没有什么可谈的了。玩option，都是小玩玩并且准
备报销，买股票亏了都能捂住并有钱可以AD，如果所有人都这样，那大家都定期开party
就行了，也别来这里猜熊猜牛了。问题是，大亏是亏，小亏也是亏，尸体个头大小不一，
但都是尸体，对大小尸体的痛苦程度相同。更重要的，在股市看清方向，特别是大方向
并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白，因为股市的周期波动是规律，
例如现在大家都知道有个year end rally，除非金太阳明天不光打炮，把人也打过去了，
这个year end rally是会出现的，并且不用等很久。
但是，赢还是亏，重要的还是操作，看错了方向，用操作可以弥补。操作错了，方向趋
势看得再准也没用。如果两周内大跌，有多少人能不为所动并且会AD。如果有人，特别
是所谓的大牛，言之确凿地喊rally开始了，是否所有无脑小散都不受诱惑只买一两个
option。其实，股市很简单，人却不简单，一个再简单不过的例子，从14000跌到6000
，绝大多人都知道迟早会弹回来，可有几个人能有定力和操作纪律捂到现在。能捂到现
在的估计可以退三次休了。遗憾的是绝大多数的人还是在折腾，即使你让他从现在
11000捂到14000，他也会跟你拼命，尽管他如果这样做比他天天瞎折腾的胜率更大，这
就是人性。所以，你说的那种情况实际上是idealism,遗憾的是idealism不是reality。
这也是我很少瞎JB喊盘的原因，尽管我自我感觉我看盘还行。孟哥是谁都可以做的，但
是行为艺术不适合股版。
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: 牵强了吧。
: option，多数人也就小玩玩，就得准备全报销的呀，不然不是赌徒嘛。小玩玩不会成填
: 坑尸体的。
: 小散户，一般也有工作吧，也有401K吧。如果跌，定投就是dollar average down。只
: 要long-term是北上，这一招还是有效的。没尸体填坑一说。
: 这个版上当前的风气，抄底风还是比较盛的，说明都还有现金。如果像你讲的两个礼拜
: 的调整，那还不高兴坏了。
|
|
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 31 "特别是大方向: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白"
这么容易？俺表示怀疑。您老要不把从现在算起，一年的只要点位顺序讲一下吧。也不
需要timing, 就讲下按照顺序要踩的点列出来。再简单一点，就是三个月还是半年，
DOW要到哪哪。
party
一，
了，
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 你把可能结论的条件都给否了，也就没有什么可谈的了。玩option，都是小玩玩并且准
: 备报销，买股票亏了都能捂住并有钱可以AD，如果所有人都这样，那大家都定期开party
: 就行了，也别来这里猜熊猜牛了。问题是，大亏是亏，小亏也是亏，尸体个头大小不一，
: 但都是尸体，对大小尸体的痛苦程度相同。更重要的，在股市看清方向，特别是大方向
: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白，因为股市的周期波动是规律，
: 例如现在大家都知道有个year end rally，除非金太阳明天不光打炮，把人也打过去了，
: 这个year end rally是会出现的，并且不用等很久。
: 但是，赢还是亏，重要的还是操作，看错了方向，用操作可以弥补。操作错了，方向趋
: 势看得再准也没用。如果两周内大跌，有多少人能不为所动并且会AD。如果有人，特别
: 是所谓的大牛，言之确凿地喊rally开始了，是否所有无脑小散都不受诱惑只买一两个
|
k******i
发帖数: 686 | 32 顶下30楼。
话说的真好。
不过我觉得确实rally(或者上涨)要来了，至少一个星期里是这样。
金融股这波调整已经到位了，
C,BAC,MS,JPM都到已经准备向上。
伴随大盘一举突破1225应该大有机会。 |
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 33 我能准确的画出一年里的点位
我说的是2009的，:D
且准
方向
律，
向趋
特别
两个
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: "特别是大方向: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白"
: 这么容易？俺表示怀疑。您老要不把从现在算起，一年的只要点位顺序讲一下吧。也不
: 需要timing, 就讲下按照顺序要踩的点列出来。再简单一点，就是三个月还是半年，
: DOW要到哪哪。
:
: party
: 一，
: 了，
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 34 已经讲了“从现在算起”。
寸长瞎起哄!
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: 我能准确的画出一年里的点位
: 我说的是2009的，:D
:
: 且准
: 方向
: 律，
: 向趋
: 特别
: 两个
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 35 你完全误解我的意思了，我说的"特别是大方向: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大
多数人都能看明白"，绝对不是说我可以预测今后的具体点位，这一点我相信只有神能
做到。但是股市不仅仅有个股趋势和大盘指数，还有很多标准震荡指标，这些指标不象
大盘，即使大盘总体走向一个方向，这些指标也是来回震荡的，既然是震荡就会有上下
极限，这些指标可以给你足够的信息判断顶和底在哪里。你可能不能预测将来，但是你
大致处在顶或是底时你应该知道，这本身就是方向。
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: "特别是大方向: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白"
: 这么容易？俺表示怀疑。您老要不把从现在算起，一年的只要点位顺序讲一下吧。也不
: 需要timing, 就讲下按照顺序要踩的点列出来。再简单一点，就是三个月还是半年，
: DOW要到哪哪。
:
: party
: 一，
: 了，
|
b*p
发帖数: 242 | 36 话糙理不糙，和谐很重要。还是要FA、TA两手抓两手都要硬。话说回来，个股受大盘影响可大可小，盯牢个股更重要。
希望古板多点有意义的交流。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 是长江北岸吧。请记住，想要过江，要么跳水，要么坐飞机，即使坐飞机，也要小心被
: 打下来。
: 你的作战方式跟常凯伸有得一拼。光头的作战方式是，国军如果失手，则要么keep
: quiet, 要么发通告：国军已成功躲过共匪之围剿，已经逃了。如果共匪失手，则电告
: 全国：扫清共匪，国军之胜利指日可待。所以，光头的下场就是，蜗居一岛，喊了一辈
: 子反攻大陆，最后客死异乡。
: 还是讲讲打仗吧，书上说作战讲究天时，地利，人和。古板人熊牛不分，是牛人还是人
: 牛不得而知，何况有些熊人头上没长角却偏偏喜欢冒充牛人，所以我们先不谈人。所谓
: 天时地利就是在哪里打，什么时候打。算算时间查查地图，看看孟良崮战役是什么时候
: 喊打的，在什么位置开打的。战役都快结束了，已经在在打扫战场肃清残敌了，有人竟
|
s******f
发帖数: 3984 | 37 赞同
很多股票已经不是52week high了，都all time high了
选好龙头股，就算遇到这么大的经济危机，照样往上串
party
一，
了，
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 你把可能结论的条件都给否了，也就没有什么可谈的了。玩option，都是小玩玩并且准
: 备报销，买股票亏了都能捂住并有钱可以AD，如果所有人都这样，那大家都定期开party
: 就行了，也别来这里猜熊猜牛了。问题是，大亏是亏，小亏也是亏，尸体个头大小不一，
: 但都是尸体，对大小尸体的痛苦程度相同。更重要的，在股市看清方向，特别是大方向
: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白，因为股市的周期波动是规律，
: 例如现在大家都知道有个year end rally，除非金太阳明天不光打炮，把人也打过去了，
: 这个year end rally是会出现的，并且不用等很久。
: 但是，赢还是亏，重要的还是操作，看错了方向，用操作可以弥补。操作错了，方向趋
: 势看得再准也没用。如果两周内大跌，有多少人能不为所动并且会AD。如果有人，特别
: 是所谓的大牛，言之确凿地喊rally开始了，是否所有无脑小散都不受诱惑只买一两个
|
i***o
发帖数: 778 | 38 说的头头是道，可惜，迂。
会讲道理不是本事，地球人都知道，大盘走的永远不是水平线。
知道啥是淡定不？纸上谈兵“进可攻退可守是生存之道”那是蛋腚，经历上上下下才能
淡定。
青蛙来这里看技术学方法练心态，大夫给图给分析给方向，蛙众们跟着吃肉喝汤，就算
大盘往南，也跟着learn lesson，比自己瞎折腾好得多。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 是长江北岸吧。请记住，想要过江，要么跳水，要么坐飞机，即使坐飞机，也要小心被
: 打下来。
: 你的作战方式跟常凯伸有得一拼。光头的作战方式是，国军如果失手，则要么keep
: quiet, 要么发通告：国军已成功躲过共匪之围剿，已经逃了。如果共匪失手，则电告
: 全国：扫清共匪，国军之胜利指日可待。所以，光头的下场就是，蜗居一岛，喊了一辈
: 子反攻大陆，最后客死异乡。
: 还是讲讲打仗吧，书上说作战讲究天时，地利，人和。古板人熊牛不分，是牛人还是人
: 牛不得而知，何况有些熊人头上没长角却偏偏喜欢冒充牛人，所以我们先不谈人。所谓
: 天时地利就是在哪里打，什么时候打。算算时间查查地图，看看孟良崮战役是什么时候
: 喊打的，在什么位置开打的。战役都快结束了，已经在在打扫战场肃清残敌了，有人竟
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 39
well, should i call this delirium or, flat out delusional? 开始玩假想敌了？
呵呵 "agitate and then kill"? actually if you need medicine to combat
agitation, i have a large supply - i'm a licensed drug dealer, specialized
in providing sedation, analgesia so on and so forth. but i'm not good at
treating delusion.
for over a year that i frequented this board, don't ever recall you made a
predicament about the market, sector, or any individual security, except a
few unnecessary long articles about the people on this board of course. Now
you claim "在股市看清方向，特别是大方向并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数
人都能看明白" hehe.you just set a new bar for bullshiting. may be you
should send your resume to Buffet? and not wasting time on the stock board
trying to predict people, including me? that won't make you a dime. Don't
start telling me you "look down upon money". Without knowing you anymore
than i care to, you envy "success" easily and deeply. and the only thing u
have to fight that, is your pen, or keyboard. LOL. go to 军版， where 文青
们 rode in herds. or to 大妈版， 再申讨一下外发。 stock board don't give
much a sh*t to 如簧之舌 or 春秋笔法。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: No comment. But, it's said that a perfect way to play with a predictable
: enemy is to agitate him first then kill;) However, this is the holiday
: season. So, have a happy Thanksgiving!
:
: mean
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 40 你又不是第一天认识村长
他就这样
娱乐娱乐
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: 已经讲了“从现在算起”。
: 寸长瞎起哄!
|
|
|
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 41 this is PA, request baozi.
【在 w*****7 的大作中提到】
: 你又不是第一天认识村长
: 他就这样
: 娱乐娱乐
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 42 我就知道，在吃上火鸡之前，有人肯定会来倒我胃口。不然，You're fully
predictable 这个结论真是白下了。
我还真不知道你真是一卖药的，虽然看着确实很象。我没卖过药，所以没法给人开药，
不过我对有些现象不是很理解，你是卖药的，能给解释一下吗，为什么有些秃子总喜欢
卖章光101？为什么有些卖sedative的却很容易激动？为什么卖药的自己不先服一点？
至于我从没有在版上make predictions，那是因为有自知之明，水平太烂，不想误人子
弟。所以，我对有些长得像熊，看起来像熊，走起来像熊的东西天天在那学牛样不是很
理解，当然也不感冒。
关于Buffet，看来你对他的了解跟你对股市的了解水平差不多。Buffet从不预测股市，
他只在1997年破过一次例，他也说过股市短期方向难以预测。他更不会在股板发帖子，
天天熊装牛样，瞎喊盘，他每年只在年底给股东写一封信。关于Buffet，如果你供上
1000个包子，我可以给你上上课。
至于我是不是envy success, 我不是很确定，但是，有一点可以肯定，即使我envy
success到死，你也不在此列，You're not qualified to be a target。至于我是不是
只能fight keyboard，我也不做评论。但是，这种枉自推断和胡言乱语，倒是很有必要
注射一点sedative。作为矫治你这种病症，我提个建议，能不能贴贴你账户，晒晒你有
多success，看看你交的税比我多多少，也让我真正envy一下。这年头，跳大神的我见
过很多，真神我还没见过。如果你同意，我会先贴我的，我可以贴出全年交易记录。本
人8万起家，两年半，盈利5.2倍。即使你有千万，如果不超过5.2倍，你就给我闭嘴。
敢吗？
最后，提个建议，咱能不能不用鸟语。这好像是我二次提醒你，要说你能说顺流了也行
。To be honest, 我见过说英语烂的，但是没见过你这么烂的，更没见过这么烂还这么
喜欢讲英语的。词不达意，语法混乱，实在令人叹为观止。你每篇帖子语法错误如果少
于一打，那简直就是奇迹。我真想到贴10个包子，帮你补习一下英语，免得你卖错药害
死人。
不过，最后还是希望你have a happy holiday!
Now
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: well, should i call this delirium or, flat out delusional? 开始玩假想敌了？
: 呵呵 "agitate and then kill"? actually if you need medicine to combat
: agitation, i have a large supply - i'm a licensed drug dealer, specialized
: in providing sedation, analgesia so on and so forth. but i'm not good at
: treating delusion.
: for over a year that i frequented this board, don't ever recall you made a
: predicament about the market, sector, or any individual security, except a
: few unnecessary long articles about the people on this board of course. Now
: you claim "在股市看清方向，特别是大方向并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 43 你这个就不实事求是了。大夫的英文表达是很不错的。一些小的瑕次不能否定整体水平。
不信你来段看看。眼高手低不好。
小星虫有点confrontational. 想挑战群众偶像可以理解。来点真货吧。不然难以服众
啊!
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 我就知道，在吃上火鸡之前，有人肯定会来倒我胃口。不然，You're fully
: predictable 这个结论真是白下了。
: 我还真不知道你真是一卖药的，虽然看着确实很象。我没卖过药，所以没法给人开药，
: 不过我对有些现象不是很理解，你是卖药的，能给解释一下吗，为什么有些秃子总喜欢
: 卖章光101？为什么有些卖sedative的却很容易激动？为什么卖药的自己不先服一点？
: 至于我从没有在版上make predictions，那是因为有自知之明，水平太烂，不想误人子
: 弟。所以，我对有些长得像熊，看起来像熊，走起来像熊的东西天天在那学牛样不是很
: 理解，当然也不感冒。
: 关于Buffet，看来你对他的了解跟你对股市的了解水平差不多。Buffet从不预测股市，
: 他只在1997年破过一次例，他也说过股市短期方向难以预测。他更不会在股板发帖子，
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 44 想装B要先装，我自然会跟随。你总得先晒晒你有多success，再评论我有多envy吧。牛
B容易吹，人B不容易吹。
我不是挑战群众偶像，这个版上群众偶像众多，我怎么没去挑战别的。只不过我对跳大
神的比较敢兴趣罢了。
平。
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: 你这个就不实事求是了。大夫的英文表达是很不错的。一些小的瑕次不能否定整体水平。
: 不信你来段看看。眼高手低不好。
: 小星虫有点confrontational. 想挑战群众偶像可以理解。来点真货吧。不然难以服众
: 啊!
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 45 呵呵。娱乐大众也不容易啊，给个包子表示支持吧。
转帐完成
转给用户:wavelets,现金(伪币):10,收取手续费:0.10
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: this is PA, request baozi.
|
b*******2
发帖数: 3202 | 46 俩大牛掐架,各位小的赶紧闪开,小心磕着碰着.不要轻易参战,一边观战为好. |
g**********7
发帖数: 2026 | 47 都在度假了忍不住过来玩玩，虽然意见不同但是我还是建议求同存异，大夫人性格直，
不绕圈子，这其实很值得
称赞的. 因为这年头玩阴的太多。他的责任感和对本版的贡献有目共睹。你说话有点冲
，不过也挺爷们的。在这
便混，贡献和索取试要同步的，多向大夫那样辅导辅导青蛙。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 我就知道，在吃上火鸡之前，有人肯定会来倒我胃口。不然，You're fully
: predictable 这个结论真是白下了。
: 我还真不知道你真是一卖药的，虽然看着确实很象。我没卖过药，所以没法给人开药，
: 不过我对有些现象不是很理解，你是卖药的，能给解释一下吗，为什么有些秃子总喜欢
: 卖章光101？为什么有些卖sedative的却很容易激动？为什么卖药的自己不先服一点？
: 至于我从没有在版上make predictions，那是因为有自知之明，水平太烂，不想误人子
: 弟。所以，我对有些长得像熊，看起来像熊，走起来像熊的东西天天在那学牛样不是很
: 理解，当然也不感冒。
: 关于Buffet，看来你对他的了解跟你对股市的了解水平差不多。Buffet从不预测股市，
: 他只在1997年破过一次例，他也说过股市短期方向难以预测。他更不会在股板发帖子，
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 48 巴哥，大夫这么热心，无论喊的对错，青蛙们都很感激的。你不知道青蛙们的夜是多么
的黑，很多青蛙基本在瞎折腾。
我大顶时跟了大夫几个，有赚有陪。不过还是很佩服大夫以及感谢他的热心。希望他多
发点帖子，我们可以多学习学习。
你也可以开个贴，说说你的观点。我们青蛙很欢迎发帖，但是如果大家吵得不爽了，从
此不发帖了，我相信这不是版众们希望看到的。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 想装B要先装，我自然会跟随。你总得先晒晒你有多success，再评论我有多envy吧。牛
: B容易吹，人B不容易吹。
: 我不是挑战群众偶像，这个版上群众偶像众多，我怎么没去挑战别的。只不过我对跳大
: 神的比较敢兴趣罢了。
:
: 平。
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 49 wow, this is getting hot, hotter than the turkey just coming out the oven.
无脑跟了。 |
k******i
发帖数: 686 | 50 对于俺们蝌蚪肯定是希望多点大夫这样的
毕竟他给你喊了牛熊
给了依据，对错先不说。
不牛不熊模棱两可你让蝌蚪们怎么混呀。 |
|
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 51 这真是近来难得一见的有分量的PK帖子啊！
我们共产党员从不隐瞒自己的观点，但今天我不讲。
我只想提醒一下跟贴的几位青蛙，想跟着大牛赚钱，或说的更委婉一点，想从大牛的帖
子里学习赚钱的思路方法，基本是没戏的。真要跟大牛，不如把巴菲特，皮特林奇的书
都买来看看，好歹人家是被证明的大牛。 |
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 52 good good. keep sending will be perfect. :)
【在 w*****7 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵。娱乐大众也不容易啊，给个包子表示支持吧。
: 转帐完成
: 转给用户:wavelets,现金(伪币):10,收取手续费:0.10
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 53
这个解说不难， 但也得看你是不是个料。 让你给巴费寄简历， 就是让你去证明你自
己号称的"特别是大方向: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白"。
巴费自己说做不到， 你能轻易做到， 他不得envy你吗？ 人还在找接班人。 你去挑了
就得了。 用不着自己trade来trade去， 更不用急忙忙在这买弄你有多了解巴费， 这
根本不是我关心的事。 这种理解力也能。。。 嗨， 费我口舌。
至于大盘， 可上可下的predicament就省了吧， 也不是你的首创。 上可至多少， 下
可到几何的预言版上从来不缺。自己留着回头标版吧。 还有你的5x之类，最新的标竿
很像是一年10x了。 5x太次了。 呵呵。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 我就知道，在吃上火鸡之前，有人肯定会来倒我胃口。不然，You're fully
: predictable 这个结论真是白下了。
: 我还真不知道你真是一卖药的，虽然看着确实很象。我没卖过药，所以没法给人开药，
: 不过我对有些现象不是很理解，你是卖药的，能给解释一下吗，为什么有些秃子总喜欢
: 卖章光101？为什么有些卖sedative的却很容易激动？为什么卖药的自己不先服一点？
: 至于我从没有在版上make predictions，那是因为有自知之明，水平太烂，不想误人子
: 弟。所以，我对有些长得像熊，看起来像熊，走起来像熊的东西天天在那学牛样不是很
: 理解，当然也不感冒。
: 关于Buffet，看来你对他的了解跟你对股市的了解水平差不多。Buffet从不预测股市，
: 他只在1997年破过一次例，他也说过股市短期方向难以预测。他更不会在股板发帖子，
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 54 大牛们连5X都看不上眼，让我们一年忙了半天还倒贴的青蛙情何以堪啊！ |
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 55 别罗索，能不能贴贴你的10x，我说了，你只要同意跟贴，我会先贴我的5x。其他都JB
是废话。
巴费你还是少提吧，他无法给你提高身价，事实上他与股版的任何人都不搭界。我们既
然在股板则言股版，先把这里的牛鬼蛇神弄清楚再说巴费不迟。
改中文了哈，这下看着舒服多了；）
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: 这个解说不难， 但也得看你是不是个料。 让你给巴费寄简历， 就是让你去证明你自
: 己号称的"特别是大方向: 并不难，根本不需要高深的知识，大多数人都能看明白"。
: 巴费自己说做不到， 你能轻易做到， 他不得envy你吗？ 人还在找接班人。 你去挑了
: 就得了。 用不着自己trade来trade去， 更不用急忙忙在这买弄你有多了解巴费， 这
: 根本不是我关心的事。 这种理解力也能。。。 嗨， 费我口舌。
: 至于大盘， 可上可下的predicament就省了吧， 也不是你的首创。 上可至多少， 下
: 可到几何的预言版上从来不缺。自己留着回头标版吧。 还有你的5x之类，最新的标竿
: 很像是一年10x了。 5x太次了。 呵呵。
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 56
不是这个意识， 你能verified的， beat大盘就很不错了， i'll give a heats off
to you. 唯一能verified的， 就是show your prediction, 而不是BHP出来跳大神几x
几x. 这种神仙在这版上一抓一把。 从去年跟jadefan之后，我就不再较真了， 今天
也是太闲了。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 大牛们连5X都看不上眼，让我们一年忙了半天还倒贴的青蛙情何以堪啊！
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 57
照顾一下能力有限的， 是应该的。
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 别罗索，能不能贴贴你的10x，我说了，你只要同意跟贴，我会先贴我的5x。其他都JB
: 是废话。
: 巴费你还是少提吧，他无法给你提高身价，事实上他与股版的任何人都不搭界。我们既
: 然在股板则言股版，先把这里的牛鬼蛇神弄清楚再说巴费不迟。
: 改中文了哈，这下看着舒服多了；）
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 58 如果你发帖子时都这么善解人意，就不会有这次的争论了。
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: 照顾一下能力有限的， 是应该的。
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 59
i always do, at least i always tried to:-) language is just for
communication. i type fast with this. Therefore I don't give a sh*t to what
you use, you can say your 乡下地瓜话 if you want to, as long as i can
understand. i assume you understand some basic English, right? for someone
who wants to give English lesson?
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 如果你发帖子时都这么善解人意，就不会有这次的争论了。
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 60 Wow! What an improvement! Not so many grammar mistakes as before! ;)
what
someone
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: i always do, at least i always tried to:-) language is just for
: communication. i type fast with this. Therefore I don't give a sh*t to what
: you use, you can say your 乡下地瓜话 if you want to, as long as i can
: understand. i assume you understand some basic English, right? for someone
: who wants to give English lesson?
|
|
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 61 I don't claim to be an English teacher, like some bone head. |
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 62 撇开这个人的水平不谈，也不管有多少人受益，他既然在某些个股上能喊对，说明他有
自己的判断方法，并且这些方法有时，甚至是大部分时间是work的，这一点没有疑问。
这个争论的起源是这个人has too big ego. 如果仅仅是对事不对人，这是个人的性格
，没人care. 可是，有big ego的人往往是靠贬低别人来further bloat his ego. 以前
的Jadefans好像落在了他手里，就是这下场。股市涨跌难以预测，任何人都不能永远正
确，所以对了也没必要膨胀。但是，有人就是喜欢如果我对了，你们就全是assholes.
孟良崮那个帖子纯粹是逗乐，没有涉及到任何人，但他会说那是daydream，并且仅仅是
因为涨了一天。如果你回上几贴，他会断定你在envy his success, 你只会fight
keyboard. 这非常childish. 他不知道，如果别人也想在网上show his big ego, 将会
跟猛哥喊盘一样容易，不需要任何技术，现在只不过我做了而别人不屑一做而已。总之
，有些人活一辈子也无法grow up.
为了多少减少一点我只灌水不念经的guilt。我说一点我最近的体会，纯属个人fight
keyboard;-) 我是青蛙，这种无脑跟的玩法也玩过，但是结局很悲惨。所以，你必须要
建立自己的判断方法，有自己的操作标准，越规范越好，这样错了，至少你能改进。如
果没有原则的跟风，完蛋是注定的，只是个时间问题。这套个人系统，如果你每天都炒
，则包括你每天必须要看那些网站，看那些新闻，盘前盘后看那些信息。如果你不是每
天都玩，则要确定必须定期查那些图表，Stockcharts上有很多这种指示中长期趋势的
指标。自己慢慢收集这些网站和信息，很快你会有自己的一套东西，等你赚点钱不在乎
几百块后，你可以订阅收费信息，试上几个月，如果不好用退了就行了。这些都不能保
证你不亏，但至少你能心里有底，这是根本。在这个基础上，你如果看版上有人推荐个
股，你用自己的一套东西去研究一番，最后自己作出决定比无脑跟保险很多。
我要是讲多了，就也成了装B一族了。现在我贴一张我上周三的（24日）的交易记录，
这并非是在贴账户，而是用这张图，我可以清楚地说明我的玩法，这种玩法不见得高明
，但对我来讲，目前我没有更好的玩法。我只玩五个股票: AAPL, LVS, BIDU, GOOG,
AMZN, 100块以下的股票除了LVS我基本不看。这些全是大盘股，所以我对大盘走向很谨
慎，因为它与我的账户涨跌一致，这也是我反对大夫在情况不是十分确定的情况下喊盘
。从这张图上可以看到我炒个股和option基本一半一半，我看准了的，我下手都很重。
我最多曾买过200个GOOG的靠，当然扑我不敢这样买。炒这些大盘股的好处是我可以捂
，可以AD到死。option我很少碰两个月内到期的。不过，这张图上买的GOOG是当天买的
12月的，并且可以看到我从12.60一路AD到11.90. 因为我的指示系统显示GOOG仍然向下
，即使向上我仍然有逃脱机会，所以我根本不怕。23日我有30个GOOG的扑卖出已经允许
我24日冒这个险，其实风险并不大。另外，这张图上24日一天我的盈利是8000左右，只
有GOOG是亏的。当然，这个图不是我交易的全部，我亏得最厉害的一天是亏4.6万，不
过是账面亏。
我的方式看起来风险很大，因为会打涨大跌，但是事实证明，it's still viable and
manageable，这种方式不一定适合别人，但是至少目前它适合我，当然那些炒股的基本
原则必须遵守，例如当机立断，保命好于丧命，你如果只能看准长期趋势，就别玩短的
，看准了的憋死也别动等等。所以，找到一套适合自己的东西很重要。最后，我现在扔
持有100个AAPL的靠，50个BIDU的靠。
灌累了，不灌了，以后再灌。最后，我对任何我帖子中冒犯的人说声抱歉，希望我们都
对事不对人，有骂人的本事，也有被人骂的气量，争论到此打住。祝各位吃完火鸡后继
续灌水。
Have a happy Thanksgiving!
【在 k******i 的大作中提到】
: 对于俺们蝌蚪肯定是希望多点大夫这样的
: 毕竟他给你喊了牛熊
: 给了依据，对错先不说。
: 不牛不熊模棱两可你让蝌蚪们怎么混呀。
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 63 这个贴子就平静多了。有货。好!
.
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 撇开这个人的水平不谈，也不管有多少人受益，他既然在某些个股上能喊对，说明他有
: 自己的判断方法，并且这些方法有时，甚至是大部分时间是work的，这一点没有疑问。
: 这个争论的起源是这个人has too big ego. 如果仅仅是对事不对人，这是个人的性格
: ，没人care. 可是，有big ego的人往往是靠贬低别人来further bloat his ego. 以前
: 的Jadefans好像落在了他手里，就是这下场。股市涨跌难以预测，任何人都不能永远正
: 确，所以对了也没必要膨胀。但是，有人就是喜欢如果我对了，你们就全是assholes.
: 孟良崮那个帖子纯粹是逗乐，没有涉及到任何人，但他会说那是daydream，并且仅仅是
: 因为涨了一天。如果你回上几贴，他会断定你在envy his success, 你只会fight
: keyboard. 这非常childish. 他不知道，如果别人也想在网上show his big ego, 将会
: 跟猛哥喊盘一样容易，不需要任何技术，现在只不过我做了而别人不屑一做而已。总之
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 64
.
well, i fought Jadefan for one reason, and one reason only - catching
falling knight to get 500% return is just a dream, at least for people at
her level at the time. She bought when she though was low, turn out wrong,
had to doubled down, even triple down at times, end up so heavily underwater
. and can't sell fast enough when barely out of water. Happened on fsys, and
then on fuqi. She had many followers end up with position underwater and
she won't reply. I just try to point the danger out, simple as that. You can
't even understand why i post, and now trying to evaluate my EGO? what, you
try to be a psychiatrist as well? lmao. How moronic.
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 撇开这个人的水平不谈，也不管有多少人受益，他既然在某些个股上能喊对，说明他有
: 自己的判断方法，并且这些方法有时，甚至是大部分时间是work的，这一点没有疑问。
: 这个争论的起源是这个人has too big ego. 如果仅仅是对事不对人，这是个人的性格
: ，没人care. 可是，有big ego的人往往是靠贬低别人来further bloat his ego. 以前
: 的Jadefans好像落在了他手里，就是这下场。股市涨跌难以预测，任何人都不能永远正
: 确，所以对了也没必要膨胀。但是，有人就是喜欢如果我对了，你们就全是assholes.
: 孟良崮那个帖子纯粹是逗乐，没有涉及到任何人，但他会说那是daydream，并且仅仅是
: 因为涨了一天。如果你回上几贴，他会断定你在envy his success, 你只会fight
: keyboard. 这非常childish. 他不知道，如果别人也想在网上show his big ego, 将会
: 跟猛哥喊盘一样容易，不需要任何技术，现在只不过我做了而别人不屑一做而已。总之
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 65 Zan, 有货。
五帮主，蝌蚪觉得书要看，实战中跟着大牛攒经验值也很好。
蝌蚪11月最高点入市，现在在水中游啊游。
NOK不舍得割，in 油工，we trust.
.
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 撇开这个人的水平不谈，也不管有多少人受益，他既然在某些个股上能喊对，说明他有
: 自己的判断方法，并且这些方法有时，甚至是大部分时间是work的，这一点没有疑问。
: 这个争论的起源是这个人has too big ego. 如果仅仅是对事不对人，这是个人的性格
: ，没人care. 可是，有big ego的人往往是靠贬低别人来further bloat his ego. 以前
: 的Jadefans好像落在了他手里，就是这下场。股市涨跌难以预测，任何人都不能永远正
: 确，所以对了也没必要膨胀。但是，有人就是喜欢如果我对了，你们就全是assholes.
: 孟良崮那个帖子纯粹是逗乐，没有涉及到任何人，但他会说那是daydream，并且仅仅是
: 因为涨了一天。如果你回上几贴，他会断定你在envy his success, 你只会fight
: keyboard. 这非常childish. 他不知道，如果别人也想在网上show his big ego, 将会
: 跟猛哥喊盘一样容易，不需要任何技术，现在只不过我做了而别人不屑一做而已。总之
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 66 行了，打住吧。我都消停了，你还JW什么呀。
underwater
and
can
you
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: .
: well, i fought Jadefan for one reason, and one reason only - catching
: falling knight to get 500% return is just a dream, at least for people at
: her level at the time. She bought when she though was low, turn out wrong,
: had to doubled down, even triple down at times, end up so heavily underwater
: . and can't sell fast enough when barely out of water. Happened on fsys, and
: then on fuqi. She had many followers end up with position underwater and
: she won't reply. I just try to point the danger out, simple as that. You can
: 't even understand why i post, and now trying to evaluate my EGO? what, you
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 67 hehe, i still have another 9 hours to go, on call and nothing to do. want to
take chance and express my ego. u just happen to come along. |
d******e
发帖数: 6945 | 68 星八哥有货，我最近几个月才刚开始上道，只做8个股票的option。有空多交流。 |
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 69 开始上道就8个。老虫才5个!
【在 d******e 的大作中提到】
: 星八哥有货，我最近几个月才刚开始上道，只做8个股票的option。有空多交流。
|
d*****w
发帖数: 684 | 70 靠，越做才会越少。
高手到最后就会只搞spy那一个去了。
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: 开始上道就8个。老虫才5个!
|
|
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 71 这个帖子要赞，不管是内容还是口气。
.
【在 S******s 的大作中提到】
: 撇开这个人的水平不谈，也不管有多少人受益，他既然在某些个股上能喊对，说明他有
: 自己的判断方法，并且这些方法有时，甚至是大部分时间是work的，这一点没有疑问。
: 这个争论的起源是这个人has too big ego. 如果仅仅是对事不对人，这是个人的性格
: ，没人care. 可是，有big ego的人往往是靠贬低别人来further bloat his ego. 以前
: 的Jadefans好像落在了他手里，就是这下场。股市涨跌难以预测，任何人都不能永远正
: 确，所以对了也没必要膨胀。但是，有人就是喜欢如果我对了，你们就全是assholes.
: 孟良崮那个帖子纯粹是逗乐，没有涉及到任何人，但他会说那是daydream，并且仅仅是
: 因为涨了一天。如果你回上几贴，他会断定你在envy his success, 你只会fight
: keyboard. 这非常childish. 他不知道，如果别人也想在网上show his big ego, 将会
: 跟猛哥喊盘一样容易，不需要任何技术，现在只不过我做了而别人不屑一做而已。总之
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 72 这个大夫说的是事实，我记得当时的情况，大夫只是要告诉青蛙们无脑跟翡翠扇子接飞
刀很危险，没有别的意思。
大夫在帮助青蛙们看股上面那是没得说的。
最后这个帖子希望有个好结果，大夫和八哥都对事不对人，我们青蛙能学到东西。
underwater
and
can
you
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, i still have another 9 hours to go, on call and nothing to do. want to
: take chance and express my ego. u just happen to come along.
|
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | |
k******i
发帖数: 686 | |
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 75 呵呵。 在腐败中
【在 k******i 的大作中提到】
: 村长好有钱
: 不抢deal在这灌水。
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 76 we have 4 days left with 40 points to go. It's still possible. Let's waut
and see.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 77 五帮主跳出来了，大盘有望反转上扬。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: we have 4 days left with 40 points to go. It's still possible. Let's waut
: and see.
|
w********s
发帖数: 343 | 78 love to see the arguement, great post!!
though concer over lang is totally irrelevant, IMHO. |
g********4
发帖数: 4959 | |
X****A
发帖数: 1203 | |
|
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 81
another busy day. seems like everyone is trying to use up the last dime in
their flex spending account, Missed the most of the rally. :-(
I decided to write a few words about market observation - just express what
i understand is happening in the big market - not to chant victory or show
off, but see if the market can be read from the chart - like reading a EKG.
Not like some big shot, i'd never say it's easy, it is an educated guess,
with study and experience, and some inside, the success rate would improve.
I was right in July of 09 in my post - " this is a special day" right after
everyone afraid of "head and shoulder". again in Feb of 10 in calling the
confirmed rally. I think this time i'm on the right track as well.
this SPX rally from early september is a complete mirror image of USD -
until this week. I noticed the market able to rise and hold the lows in the
face of rising dollar. On weekly chart, this is a fairly classic 3 week
tight formation. The reason i don't this market would fall further down
from 10w line is that drop is different from the fall in April in terms of
volume and range of whip. As soon as USD enter in to a long term resistant
zone of 80-82 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23609406264&a=215490442), the market took off. It is my believe that this immediate rally will reach 1275 in some point before we see a sizable correction. It is good time to plan long term holdings. My recent transfer of funds came in handy:-)
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Happy Thanksgiving. hope the market's rally today don't turn into a big
: turkey:-)
: today's rally came with subdue volume before holiday thus less convincing.
: However, many leading bulls see high volume surge. One other sign which is
: very bullish, also what i have been waiting to see for a long time - the
: market rises in the face of rising dollar. That hasn't happened during the
: last 2 months of bull run.
: some bears still daydreaming about 孟良崮， while in fact, the front line is
: already pushed to 长江岸.
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 82
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: another busy day. seems like everyone is trying to use up the last dime in
: their flex spending account, Missed the most of the rally. :-(
: I decided to write a few words about market observation - just express what
: i understand is happening in the big market - not to chant victory or show
: off, but see if the market can be read from the chart - like reading a EKG.
: Not like some big shot, i'd never say it's easy, it is an educated guess,
: with study and experience, and some inside, the success rate would improve.
: I was right in July of 09 in my post - " this is a special day" right after
: everyone afraid of "head and shoulder". again in Feb of 10 in calling the
|
a*****s
发帖数: 3643 | 83 大夫，good call！！
Thanks！
这个rally，有哪些你看好的个股？可以持有1～2年的？
万分感谢！！ |
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 84 No argument this time. ;) 熊熊气数已尽，今天是第一刀，最快本周即可气绝身亡，
最迟不过下周，虽然插一刀可能会跳一跳。
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 85 i haven't been using my screen to look for breakouts regularly lately and
probably missed a lot of new breakouts. I'll just mention a few that i have
or traded recently
these are all mid-large caps that aim for mid-long term holding at good
entry point.
F - too much had been said. a good entry today.
BRCM - a break away gap tell me much higher upside, a true leader.
a little extended now, but buying a leading bull at the market break through
usually turn out good. like CMG at 180
CME - adding credit default swap trading would add big revenue. good entry
as well
CSX - essentially the coal because it's revenue comes mainly from coal
transport. i bought today. good entry point.
NEU - just clears a 10month giant first stage. hugh upside, my oil pick
right now. |
a*****s
发帖数: 3643 | 86 Appreciate it! Master!!!
have
through
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: i haven't been using my screen to look for breakouts regularly lately and
: probably missed a lot of new breakouts. I'll just mention a few that i have
: or traded recently
: these are all mid-large caps that aim for mid-long term holding at good
: entry point.
: F - too much had been said. a good entry today.
: BRCM - a break away gap tell me much higher upside, a true leader.
: a little extended now, but buying a leading bull at the market break through
: usually turn out good. like CMG at 180
: CME - adding credit default swap trading would add big revenue. good entry
|
h********r
发帖数: 668 | 87 No more fights between you two.
Lexian is a great leader who help many get richer here.
Star may be a good fighter who earned lots of money only by himself.
You can see that the leader is more welcome here. Star, even for your five
stocks, if you can make your smart predictions, it will be great for the
frogs here.
BTW, nobody can make 100% correct predictions.
>80% is Da niu
60~70% is Zhong niu
55~60% is Xiao Niu
<50%, shutup! |
b*p
发帖数: 242 | 88 大夫是好人，但我实在忍不住了：大夫卖瓜了。
如果只是短期持有CSX可以考虑。但是铁路交通板块我看了很久，也玩过。我觉得超涨
了，看着要回调了。一定要猜的话，10%。另外，美国中部小煤窑发生事故后，加强管
理问责，关闭危险煤矿。csx 和 nsc 我都觉得要跌跌了。一定要选的话，unp我觉得还可以考虑，连接
美国中西部、加拿大和墨西哥，不过直接竞争对手老巴的bnsf。
have
through
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: i haven't been using my screen to look for breakouts regularly lately and
: probably missed a lot of new breakouts. I'll just mention a few that i have
: or traded recently
: these are all mid-large caps that aim for mid-long term holding at good
: entry point.
: F - too much had been said. a good entry today.
: BRCM - a break away gap tell me much higher upside, a true leader.
: a little extended now, but buying a leading bull at the market break through
: usually turn out good. like CMG at 180
: CME - adding credit default swap trading would add big revenue. good entry
|
S******s
发帖数: 914 | 89 I usually don't fight for fight. For instance, he didn't belittle or
insinuate anybody this time and I didn't either. The whole world is in
harmony. ;)
【在 h********r 的大作中提到】
: No more fights between you two.
: Lexian is a great leader who help many get richer here.
: Star may be a good fighter who earned lots of money only by himself.
: You can see that the leader is more welcome here. Star, even for your five
: stocks, if you can make your smart predictions, it will be great for the
: frogs here.
: BTW, nobody can make 100% correct predictions.
: >80% is Da niu
: 60~70% is Zhong niu
: 55~60% is Xiao Niu
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 90
,
In mentioning of historic moment, I actually think the Canadian market has
the upper hand on US market. while spx is struggling to cross the midst of
cliff, EWC is poised to take on the peak.
Just like 6 yrs ago was the time to load up emerging market, i think now it'
s the time to buy North America, esp Canadian. Reasons being:
-emerging market's value has mostly been realized, while their risks start
to get on people's nerve, like run away inflation,
-developed market's stock priced at a discount after recession. however,
earning growth is picking up.
-Canadian has mostly stayed out of the trouble for the last couple years.
Banking system (32%) running in good condition. Toronto's real estate market
unbelievably hot--banker's cash register running at full throttle.
-EWC has huge natural resource components (Energy/material nearly 50%) that
would become hot potatos in the upcoming economic rebound.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
|
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 91 顶一下大夫的帖子。 2011 年年底 S&P 500 INDEX 1400 以上见。
,
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
: finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
: depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
: line and ready for the decisive move.
: in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
: after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
: the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
: summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
: decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
: the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 92
until this week.
WSJ finally noticed the dissociation of USD and SPX since early December.
the associate revert from -1 to 0.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/07/dollar-to-stocks-you
should pad myself on the back for picking it up immediately (almost the very
first day) as it happened, not weeks later. a good reminder on how to read
the big market by READING INTO THE MARKET.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: ,
: In mentioning of historic moment, I actually think the Canadian market has
: the upper hand on US market. while spx is struggling to cross the midst of
: cliff, EWC is poised to take on the peak.
: Just like 6 yrs ago was the time to load up emerging market, i think now it'
: s the time to buy North America, esp Canadian. Reasons being:
: -emerging market's value has mostly been realized, while their risks start
: to get on people's nerve, like run away inflation,
: -developed market's stock priced at a discount after recession. however,
|
b****n
发帖数: 993 | 93 What is this dissociation supposed to mean? Economy is turning good so both
stocks and dollar become strong or the opposite?
very
read
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: until this week.
: WSJ finally noticed the dissociation of USD and SPX since early December.
: the associate revert from -1 to 0.
: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/07/dollar-to-stocks-you
: should pad myself on the back for picking it up immediately (almost the very
: first day) as it happened, not weeks later. a good reminder on how to read
: the big market by READING INTO THE MARKET.
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 94 To if both stocks and dollar go strong, it's bullish sign, very storng one.
both
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: What is this dissociation supposed to mean? Economy is turning good so both
: stocks and dollar become strong or the opposite?
:
: very
: read
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 95 exactly
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: To if both stocks and dollar go strong, it's bullish sign, very storng one.
:
: both
|
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 96 yeah. your observation about that dissociation was very sharp at that time.
very
read
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: until this week.
: WSJ finally noticed the dissociation of USD and SPX since early December.
: the associate revert from -1 to 0.
: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/07/dollar-to-stocks-you
: should pad myself on the back for picking it up immediately (almost the very
: first day) as it happened, not weeks later. a good reminder on how to read
: the big market by READING INTO THE MARKET.
|
r*********5
发帖数: 61 | 97 还别说，能挑出F，brcm，cme，csx，neu的组合还真不是盖的，各买一百股，到上周能
亏个1%+。
have
through
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: i haven't been using my screen to look for breakouts regularly lately and
: probably missed a lot of new breakouts. I'll just mention a few that i have
: or traded recently
: these are all mid-large caps that aim for mid-long term holding at good
: entry point.
: F - too much had been said. a good entry today.
: BRCM - a break away gap tell me much higher upside, a true leader.
: a little extended now, but buying a leading bull at the market break through
: usually turn out good. like CMG at 180
: CME - adding credit default swap trading would add big revenue. good entry
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 98 变形虫蓉儿
没看懂你什么意思
会亏吗？
【在 r*********5 的大作中提到】
: 还别说，能挑出F，brcm，cme，csx，neu的组合还真不是盖的，各买一百股，到上周能
: 亏个1%+。
:
: have
: through
|
